Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Cyprus, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3151.0952022-05-02: 1.116 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.135 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.154 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.182 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.212 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.246 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.293 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.283 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.236 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.116-0.066-5.59%-1.18
−142022-05-161.135-0.047-4.02%-0.84
−72022-05-231.154-0.029-2.42%-0.51
−32022-05-231.154-0.029-2.42%-0.51
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.212+0.030+2.55%+0.54
+142022-06-131.246+0.063+5.35%+1.12
+302022-06-271.293+0.111+9.38%+1.97
+602022-07-251.283+0.101+8.55%+1.80
+902022-08-291.236+0.054+4.57%+0.96

One volatility unit for this series is 4.76%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1611.0022022-05-02: 1.018 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.039 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.052 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.093 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.116 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.146 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.126 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.018-0.054-5.03%-2.69
−142022-05-161.039-0.033-3.05%-1.63
−72022-05-231.052-0.020-1.86%-0.99
−32022-05-231.052-0.020-1.86%-0.99
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.093+0.021+1.97%+1.05
+142022-06-131.116+0.045+4.19%+2.24
+302022-06-271.146+0.074+6.94%+3.71
+602022-07-251.126+0.054+5.04%+2.70
+902022-08-291.072+0.001+0.07%+0.04

One volatility unit for this series is 1.87%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.120-0.120

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9052.960.002022-05-01: 0 to 38.22 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-06-01: 0 to 47.29 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-07-01: 0 to 29.53 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 0 to 29.66 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-010–38.22not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-010–38.22not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-010–38.22not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-010–38.22not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-010–38.22not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-010–47.29not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-010–47.29not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-010–47.29not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-010–47.29not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-010–47.29not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-010–29.53not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-010–29.53not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-010–29.66not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9091.3687.642022-05-01: 90.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 88.00 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 91.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 91.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0190.00+2.000+2.27%+0.33
−142022-05-0190.00+2.000+2.27%+0.33
−72022-05-0190.00+2.000+2.27%+0.33
−32022-05-0190.00+2.000+2.27%+0.33
−12022-05-0190.00+2.000+2.27%+0.33
T02022-06-01same print as T088.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T088.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T088.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T088.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T088.000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0191.00+3.000+3.41%+0.49
+602022-07-0191.00+3.000+3.41%+0.49
+902022-08-0191.00+3.000+3.41%+0.49

One volatility unit for this series is 6.90%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90682,325563,3492022-05-01: 611,413 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 574,863 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 633,914 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 670,811 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01611,413+36,550+6.36%+0.86
−142022-05-01611,413+36,550+6.36%+0.86
−72022-05-01611,413+36,550+6.36%+0.86
−32022-05-01611,413+36,550+6.36%+0.86
−12022-05-01611,413+36,550+6.36%+0.86
T02022-06-01same print as T0574,8630.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0574,8630.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0574,8630.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0574,8630.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0574,8630.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01633,914+59,051+10.27%+1.40
+602022-07-01633,914+59,051+10.27%+1.40
+902022-08-01670,811+95,948+16.69%+2.27

One volatility unit for this series is 7.35%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.052-0.0622022-05-02: 0.0088 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.0407 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0302 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: -0.0066 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: -0.0222 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0265 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.0127 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.0510 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.0088+0.009not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.0407+0.041not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0302+0.030not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0302+0.030not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-06-0.0066-0.007not publishednot published
+142022-06-13-0.0222-0.022not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0265+0.027not publishednot published
+602022-07-250.0127+0.013not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.0510-0.051not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.035-0.1472022-05-02: -0.1044 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0608 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: -0.0173 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0170 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0127 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0132 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.0095 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1294 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.1044-0.104not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0608-0.061not publishednot published
−72022-05-23-0.0173-0.017not publishednot published
−32022-05-23-0.0173-0.017not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0170+0.017not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0127+0.013not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0132+0.013not publishednot published
+602022-07-250.0095+0.009not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1294-0.129not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.0041.7162022-05-02: 1.744 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.804 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.814 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.812 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.840 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.861 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.976 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.948 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.816 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.744-0.068-3.76%-2.65
−142022-05-161.804-0.008-0.44%-0.31
−72022-05-231.814+0.002+0.11%+0.08
−32022-05-231.814+0.002+0.11%+0.08
−12022-05-30same print as T01.8120.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.8120.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.8120.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.8120.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.840+0.028+1.55%+1.09
+142022-06-131.861+0.049+2.69%+1.90
+302022-06-271.976+0.164+9.03%+6.36
+602022-07-251.948+0.135+7.47%+5.26
+902022-08-291.816+0.004+0.20%+0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 1.42%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8551.4922022-05-02: 1.527 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.604 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.671 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.715 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.761 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.784 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.819 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.791 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.562 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.527-0.188-10.98%-7.83
−142022-05-161.604-0.111-6.49%-4.63
−72022-05-231.671-0.044-2.58%-1.84
−32022-05-231.671-0.044-2.58%-1.84
−12022-05-30same print as T01.7150.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.7150.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.7150.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.7150.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.761+0.045+2.65%+1.89
+142022-06-131.784+0.068+3.99%+2.85
+302022-06-271.819+0.104+6.08%+4.34
+602022-07-251.791+0.076+4.41%+3.14
+902022-08-291.562-0.153-8.93%-6.37

One volatility unit for this series is 1.40%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3431.1022022-05-02: 1.125 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.176 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.184 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.182 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.206 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.223 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.320 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.296 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.185 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.125-0.057-4.85%-1.89
−142022-05-161.176-0.007-0.57%-0.22
−72022-05-231.184+0.002+0.14%+0.05
−32022-05-231.184+0.002+0.14%+0.05
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1820.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.206+0.024+1.99%+0.78
+142022-06-131.223+0.041+3.47%+1.36
+302022-06-271.320+0.137+11.63%+4.54
+602022-07-251.296+0.114+9.62%+3.76
+902022-08-291.185+0.003+0.26%+0.10

One volatility unit for this series is 2.56%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1890.8842022-05-02: 0.9134 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.9781 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.034 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.110 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.129 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.159 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.135 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.9430 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9134-0.158-14.77%-5.75
−142022-05-160.9781-0.093-8.72%-3.40
−72022-05-231.034-0.037-3.47%-1.35
−32022-05-231.034-0.037-3.47%-1.35
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.110+0.038+3.56%+1.39
+142022-06-131.129+0.058+5.37%+2.09
+302022-06-271.159+0.088+8.18%+3.18
+602022-07-251.135+0.064+5.93%+2.31
+902022-08-290.9430-0.129-12.00%-4.67

One volatility unit for this series is 2.57%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6610.6152022-05-02: 0.6192 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6288 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6304 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.6301 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.6346 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.6379 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.6562 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6517 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.6307 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6192-0.011-1.73%-1.90
−142022-05-160.6288-0.001-0.20%-0.22
−72022-05-230.6304+0.000+0.05%+0.05
−32022-05-230.6304+0.000+0.05%+0.05
−12022-05-30same print as T00.63010.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.63010.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.63010.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.63010.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.6346+0.004+0.71%+0.78
+142022-06-130.6379+0.008+1.24%+1.36
+302022-06-270.6562+0.026+4.15%+4.56
+602022-07-250.6517+0.022+3.43%+3.77
+902022-08-290.6307+0.001+0.09%+0.10

One volatility unit for this series is 0.91%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6660.6082022-05-02: 0.6135 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6258 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6365 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.6436 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.6508 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.6545 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.6602 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6556 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.6191 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6135-0.030-4.67%-4.58
−142022-05-160.6258-0.018-2.76%-2.70
−72022-05-230.6365-0.007-1.10%-1.07
−32022-05-230.6365-0.007-1.10%-1.07
−12022-05-30same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.6508+0.007+1.13%+1.10
+142022-06-130.6545+0.011+1.70%+1.66
+302022-06-270.6602+0.017+2.59%+2.53
+602022-07-250.6556+0.012+1.88%+1.84
+902022-08-290.6191-0.024-3.80%-3.72

One volatility unit for this series is 1.02%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Nothing published in the windownot published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–29.53 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed91.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+3.41% from the level at T0 = +0.49 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed633,914 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+10.27% from the level at T0 = +1.40 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.320 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+11.63% from the level at T0 = +4.54 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.976 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+9.03% from the level at T0 = +6.36 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Cyprus, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'cyprus'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax petrol price moved +3.6%, which is 1.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.10975
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    6.1355336963564895
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.5591306538759495
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3854725718350156
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03814000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.5591306538759495
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3854725718350156
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.10975
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    6.1355336963564895
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.5591306538759495
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3854725718350156
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03814000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.5591306538759495
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3854725718350156

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d421ed54f84ac9a86c1c2e47166d1f64bb47a4660e9ca6cc1e4c4328c57e90ed · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax petrol price moved +8.2%, which is 3.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1592200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    7.248342103518992
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.175548940379446
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.182518406357257
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08761000000000019
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.175548940379446
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.182518406357257
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1592200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    7.248342103518992
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.175548940379446
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.182518406357257
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08761000000000019
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.175548940379446
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.182518406357257

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint acafe5693ca5fe772f975ed7edc240381142052e1e8b1a7814c9a1e2ce6b7773 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax petrol price moved -12.0%, which is 4.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9429700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.383882470430442
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -12.004367260477213
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.672973037253695
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12863999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.004367260477213
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.672973037253695
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9429700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.383882470430442
    t0_value
    1.07161
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -12.004367260477213
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.672973037253695
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12863999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.004367260477213
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5688929006815275
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.672973037253695

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8a5f89ea6df87ce18e1630b3333fc22b7817d15270b659819acc0838b1052dbe · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive petrol price moved +2.6%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.76055
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    8.054132147564133
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.6464003358287296
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8879513325712023
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04539000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.6464003358287296
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8879513325712023
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.76055
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    8.054132147564133
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.6464003358287296
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8879513325712023
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04539000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.6464003358287296
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8879513325712023

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d6af8adc23dae0adb3f6ebb2f3bc73a7d4b3d2da2ebef8eb28b5566603976774 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive petrol price moved +6.1%, which is 4.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8194100000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    9.570263823089373
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    6.078150143426863
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.33617374797418
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.10425000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.078150143426863
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.33617374797418
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8194100000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    9.570263823089373
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    6.078150143426863
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.33617374797418
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.10425000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.078150143426863
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.33617374797418

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 88526d9627c3f0cbefb882181714dafd97dfd965f3f16cfbd7f163fafb04e7a6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive petrol price moved -8.9%, which is 6.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.56208
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.9418886266417044
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.925114858089048
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.367208415730329
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1530800000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.925114858089048
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.367208415730329
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.56208
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.9418886266417044
    t0_value
    1.71516
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.925114858089048
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.367208415730329
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1530800000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.925114858089048
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4017312258916097
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.367208415730329

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 78e7747a5d2e713a953c93b709c1d6572309640eec1b1c9148804a1e22e994c5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component petrol price moved +1.1%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6508
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.5109996368689678
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.1265635925724637
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.1034225254659815
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00725000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.1265635925724637
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.1034225254659815
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6508
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.5109996368689678
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.1265635925724637
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.1034225254659815
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00725000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.1265635925724637
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.1034225254659815

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e20eee493c2d8eab21985f2a71ec333025d3569e8c8b1d5914b884738fbc5d7a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component petrol price moved +2.6%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.66019
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.8663667691553467
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.5856576800559554
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5325449412074224
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0166400000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5856576800559554
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5325449412074224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.66019
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.8663667691553467
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.5856576800559554
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5325449412074224
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0166400000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5856576800559554
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5325449412074224

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 24a146ebeaf5f65032b89948c9c3612646a342a67eba509d6ef780a801a8809b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component petrol price moved -3.8%, which is 3.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6191099999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    0.31168287199619055
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.797684717582164
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.719675382398382
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.024440000000000017
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.797684717582164
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.719675382398382
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6191099999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    0.31168287199619055
    t0_value
    0.64355
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.797684717582164
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.719675382398382
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.024440000000000017
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.797684717582164
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0209720814759602
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.719675382398382

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a06ac433c3909cbcec54843c2e97af25d19e13bd6589d48222d209af5a1e650e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax diesel price moved +2.0%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.20592
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.6012065371061799
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.990899710752879
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7781408083246518
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.023539999999999894
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.990899710752879
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7781408083246518
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.20592
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.6012065371061799
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.990899710752879
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7781408083246518
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.023539999999999894
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.990899710752879
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7781408083246518

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 60a5da536204980887a46422e9c54654d6380c8b1c0dc8f89436248beeec957e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax diesel price moved +11.6%, which is 4.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.31986
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.717641811050707
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.62739559194166
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.544553879714251
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13747999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.62739559194166
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.544553879714251
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.31986
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.717641811050707
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.62739559194166
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.544553879714251
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13747999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.62739559194166
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.544553879714251

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a07f3c574c9c0bd4e5e2474e09df0d57728f58a79fdee93034ecf83830ef12d2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' pre-tax diesel price moved +0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18543
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.400436318016102
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.25795429557331606
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.1008211327693298
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.003049999999999775
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.25795429557331606
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.1008211327693298
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18543
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.400436318016102
    t0_value
    1.1823800000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.25795429557331606
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.1008211327693298
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.003049999999999775
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.25795429557331606
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.558533994688332
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.1008211327693298

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 631dc67a634df6d337ecf43291691960f6a72441a45d3bebb849a43135f6a3e9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.5%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8404800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.9053728896871063
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5459651523343925
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0889174942857183
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028019999999999934
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5459651523343925
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0889174942857183
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8404800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.9053728896871063
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5459651523343925
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0889174942857183
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028019999999999934
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5459651523343925
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0889174942857183

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 27e5acba1e1f9890269b3959291883c5099b1b27b5d1abe851b85e8d6b3351cb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +9.0%, which is 6.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.97607
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    3.320477095443718
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    9.02695783631086
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.358236660959551
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1636099999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.02695783631086
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.358236660959551
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.97607
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    3.320477095443718
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    9.02695783631086
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.358236660959551
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1636099999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.02695783631086
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.358236660959551

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 750a70b60cf92d06b81cc37eeab4d044a09dff908f522300c8d37311aac6c7f9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +0.2%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8161
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.6509275726552726
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.2008320183617771
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.14145823266237967
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0036399999999998656
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.2008320183617771
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.14145823266237967
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.8161
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.6509275726552726
    t0_value
    1.8124600000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.2008320183617771
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.14145823266237967
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0036399999999998656
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.2008320183617771
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4197266188183313
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.14145823266237967

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da5fd6e2d0413e0c346949246db4c3e40c4855a34bcc9c33352f1bbc57b09664 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component diesel price moved +0.7%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6345600000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.071011863582477
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.7110208227526903
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7812871821442436
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0044800000000001505
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.7110208227526903
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7812871821442436
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.6345600000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    1.071011863582477
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.7110208227526903
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7812871821442436
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0044800000000001505
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.7110208227526903
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7812871821442436

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 878083bd621dd3bd77221871c1e519b37d3b1bcdd91b4c58b89ec90bfea8c0ac · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component diesel price moved +4.1%, which is 4.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.65621
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.2817521882574208
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.147092432706956
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.556927247640266
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026129999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.147092432706956
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.556927247640266
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.65621
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    2.2817521882574208
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.147092432706956
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.556927247640266
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026129999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.147092432706956
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.556927247640266

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ea82e779dc2787182817b61a346f6e0a6c4da343f33b07b8a53af534e94e0f9e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Cyprus' tax-component diesel price moved +0.1%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.63067
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    0.8534700685253974
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.09363890299644163
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.10289273157702503
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0005899999999999794
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.09363890299644163
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.10289273157702503
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.63067
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    z_score
    0.8534700685253974
    t0_value
    0.63008
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.09363890299644163
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_CY_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.10289273157702503
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0005899999999999794
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.09363890299644163
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9100633403472623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.10289273157702503

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 314ee1a1719f1a6bc788d08c7027564aa632ee471fb57134f87befe19633798e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Cyprus' pre-tax petrol price by +7.4 c/L (range +5.4–+9.5); it actually moved +8.8 c/L, leaving +1.3 c/L not explained by crude.

    about CyprusCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.013213755980820224
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.08761000000000019
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.07439624401917996
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.05402699303407628
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0947654950042843
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.013213755980820224
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.08761000000000019
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.07439624401917996
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.05402699303407628
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0947654950042843
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 524d008982248410435787f9a5d3b5fb4e82c1ce5d9630f0fe4b39862eaa23a4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Cyprus' pre-tax petrol price by +0.1 c/L (range -6.2–+6.3); it actually moved -12.9 c/L, leaving -12.9 c/L not explained by crude.

    about CyprusCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12938385774428535
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.12863999999999987
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.000743857744285488
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.061609809236645274
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.06309752472521757
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12938385774428535
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.12863999999999987
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.000743857744285488
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.061609809236645274
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.06309752472521757
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 0fbd59636aa4c7d55fcb3cdb897baed4f2f5046c3afb2154e4c61df992b38446 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Cyprus' pre-tax diesel price by +11.1 c/L (range +8.6–+13.6); it actually moved +13.7 c/L, leaving +2.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about CyprusCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    6
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.026526862110071714
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.13747999999999982
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11095313788992811
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.08589856129999554
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.13600771447986054
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    6
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.026526862110071714
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.13747999999999982
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11095313788992811
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.08589856129999554
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.13600771447986054
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 1f7c95ea3ab12e94d767e1c2a6b2b5b090840a375c77def0e671f8e506432d0f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Cyprus' pre-tax diesel price by +5.4 c/L (range -0.8–+11.6); it actually moved +0.3 c/L, leaving -5.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about CyprusCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    6
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.05096725458035295
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.003049999999999775
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.054017254580352725
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.007502286604824271
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11553679576553234
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Cyprus
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_CY_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    6
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.05096725458035295
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.003049999999999775
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.054017254580352725
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.007502286604824271
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11553679576553234
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint f7caed4c4d2d6e3c22dc67d0c60cf7b8b0567628212fb4dc87a1ccb56ad18f9f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Cyprus in 2022-06 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.

    about CyprusUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Cyprus
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Cyprus
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint ab77adc14ca62d6e8c7c548bb74d22b40428595e56021ab2906e2d57ac61d0c4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was significant (0%–47%) for Cyprus in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about CyprusCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Cyprus
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    value_max_pct
    47.2875832177301
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Cyprus
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    value_max_pct
    47.2875832177301
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint eef68acce40783d236aea75a82aa4501075d17579d412555966391bd99bf90c0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Whether Cyprus' crude supply was physically reduced in 2022-06 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.

    about CyprusUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Cyprus
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Cyprus
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 65b5d302db418515b8000a59b24877eca2c2f74afe316fc65d6b720ef3f944f1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Cyprus' oil stocks stood 5.7% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 88.0 days of cover (as published).

    about CyprusCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_CY
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    days_of_cover
    88
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -5.977955980654648
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    574863
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    609890.5833333334
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -5.74325695305729
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -5.74325695305729
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -5.7
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Cyprus
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_CY
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    days_of_cover
    88
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -5.977955980654648
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    574863
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    609890.5833333334
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -5.74325695305729
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint 8061c11cc829bdb66a29fbab13ba5317e15a1b30e11fa7827e6cdbc8b05543cb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Cyprus around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about CyprusUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Cyprus
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    dependence_band
    null
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Cyprus
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    CY
    country_name
    Cyprus
    country_slug
    cyprus
    dependence_band
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 0667f36757fb8469db9e15edf80af0d4e39a2f657412d006319b70f70682edcf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Cyprus: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.