Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Poland, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902,449,4341,885,4242022-05-01: 2,394,852 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 2,044,642 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 2,249,113 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 1,940,006 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-012,394,852+350,210+17.13%+0.89
−142022-05-012,394,852+350,210+17.13%+0.89
−72022-05-012,394,852+350,210+17.13%+0.89
−32022-05-012,394,852+350,210+17.13%+0.89
−12022-05-012,394,852+350,210+17.13%+0.89
T02022-06-01same print as T02,044,6420.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T02,044,6420.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T02,044,6420.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T02,044,6420.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T02,044,6420.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-012,249,113+204,471+10.00%+0.52
+602022-07-012,249,113+204,471+10.00%+0.52
+902022-08-011,940,006-104,636-5.12%-0.27

One volatility unit for this series is 19.25%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2200.9792022-05-02: 1.002 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.050 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.090 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.118 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.165 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.191 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.170 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.197 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.183 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.002-0.116-10.40%-0.12
−142022-05-161.050-0.069-6.14%-0.07
−72022-05-231.090-0.029-2.56%-0.03
−32022-05-231.090-0.029-2.56%-0.03
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.165+0.046+4.13%+0.05
+142022-06-131.191+0.072+6.47%+0.08
+302022-06-271.170+0.052+4.64%+0.06
+602022-07-251.197+0.078+7.01%+0.08
+902022-08-291.183+0.064+5.75%+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 83.38%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3181.0562022-05-02: 1.081 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.121 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.140 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.169 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.195 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.216 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.227 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.263 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.293 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.081-0.088-7.52%-0.23
−142022-05-161.121-0.048-4.11%-0.13
−72022-05-231.140-0.030-2.53%-0.08
−32022-05-231.140-0.030-2.53%-0.08
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.195+0.026+2.23%+0.07
+142022-06-131.216+0.047+4.03%+0.12
+302022-06-271.227+0.058+4.95%+0.15
+602022-07-251.263+0.094+8.03%+0.24
+902022-08-291.293+0.124+10.59%+0.32

One volatility unit for this series is 32.82%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9039.200.002022-05-01: 0 to 35.00 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-06-01: 0 to 28.85 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-07-01: 0 to 26.02 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 0 to 17.37 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-010–35.00not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-010–35.00not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-010–35.00not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-010–35.00not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-010–35.00not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-010–28.85not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-010–28.85not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-010–28.85not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-010–28.85not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-010–28.85not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-010–26.02not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-010–26.02not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-010–17.37not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+908.3310.0002022-05-01: 0 to 6.522 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-06-01: 0 to 7.438 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-07-01: 0 to 1.772 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 0 to 4.209 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-010–6.522not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-010–6.522not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-010–6.522not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-010–6.522not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-010–6.522not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-010–7.438not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-010–7.438not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-010–7.438not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-010–7.438not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-010–7.438not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-010–1.772not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-010–1.772not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-010–4.209not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9096.3692.642022-05-01: 96.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 95.00 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 94.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 93.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0196.00+1.000+1.05%+0.53
−142022-05-0196.00+1.000+1.05%+0.53
−72022-05-0196.00+1.000+1.05%+0.53
−32022-05-0196.00+1.000+1.05%+0.53
−12022-05-0196.00+1.000+1.05%+0.53
T02022-06-01same print as T095.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T095.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T095.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T095.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T095.000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0194.00-1.000-1.05%-0.53
+602022-07-0194.00-1.000-1.05%-0.53
+902022-08-0193.00-2.000-2.11%-1.07

One volatility unit for this series is 1.97%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9010,936,0079,965,1412022-05-01: 10,842,052 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 10,579,377 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 10,534,523 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 10,059,096 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0110,842,052+262,675+2.48%+0.96
−142022-05-0110,842,052+262,675+2.48%+0.96
−72022-05-0110,842,052+262,675+2.48%+0.96
−32022-05-0110,842,052+262,675+2.48%+0.96
−12022-05-0110,842,052+262,675+2.48%+0.96
T02022-06-01same print as T010,579,3770.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T010,579,3770.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T010,579,3770.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T010,579,3770.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T010,579,3770.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0110,534,523-44,854-0.42%-0.16
+602022-07-0110,534,523-44,854-0.42%-0.16
+902022-08-0110,059,096-520,281-4.92%-1.90

One volatility unit for this series is 2.59%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.181-0.0372022-05-02: 0.1598 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.0843 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0377 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0306 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0370 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0783 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0159 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.0011 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.1598+0.160not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.0843+0.084not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0377+0.038not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0377+0.038not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0306+0.031not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0370+0.037not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0783+0.078not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0159-0.016not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.0011-0.001not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.110-0.3912022-05-02: -0.1003 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0344 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: -0.0134 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0613 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0242 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: -0.0218 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.1653 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.3427 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.1003-0.100not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0344-0.034not publishednot published
−72022-05-23-0.0134-0.013not publishednot published
−32022-05-23-0.0134-0.013not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0613+0.061not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0242+0.024not publishednot published
+302022-06-27-0.0218-0.022not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.1653-0.165not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.3427-0.343not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.6961.5322022-05-02: 1.587 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.559 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.555 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.548 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.631 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.662 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.680 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.606 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.605 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.587+0.040+2.57%+0.98
−142022-05-161.559+0.011+0.70%+0.27
−72022-05-231.555+0.007+0.47%+0.18
−32022-05-231.555+0.007+0.47%+0.18
−12022-05-30same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.631+0.083+5.38%+2.06
+142022-06-131.662+0.114+7.39%+2.83
+302022-06-271.680+0.132+8.56%+3.28
+602022-07-251.606+0.059+3.79%+1.45
+902022-08-291.605+0.057+3.68%+1.41

One volatility unit for this series is 2.61%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.7701.3442022-05-02: 1.423 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.539 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.585 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.634 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.729 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.707 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.664 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.547 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.385 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.423-0.211-12.93%-6.04
−142022-05-161.539-0.096-5.85%-2.73
−72022-05-231.585-0.049-3.01%-1.41
−32022-05-231.585-0.049-3.01%-1.41
−12022-05-30same print as T01.6340.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.6340.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.6340.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.6340.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.729+0.095+5.80%+2.71
+142022-06-131.707+0.073+4.46%+2.08
+302022-06-271.664+0.030+1.83%+0.85
+602022-07-251.547-0.087-5.31%-2.48
+902022-08-291.385-0.249-15.24%-7.11

One volatility unit for this series is 2.14%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2641.1032022-05-02: 1.162 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.134 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.128 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.118 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.195 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.228 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.249 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.181 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.182 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.162+0.043+3.88%+1.17
−142022-05-161.134+0.016+1.40%+0.42
−72022-05-231.128+0.009+0.82%+0.25
−32022-05-231.128+0.009+0.82%+0.25
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1180.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.195+0.077+6.86%+2.07
+142022-06-131.228+0.109+9.78%+2.95
+302022-06-271.249+0.130+11.64%+3.51
+602022-07-251.181+0.063+5.59%+1.69
+902022-08-291.182+0.063+5.66%+1.71

One volatility unit for this series is 3.32%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2930.9132022-05-02: 0.9807 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.087 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.126 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.169 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.256 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.240 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.205 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.098 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.9500 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9807-0.188-16.11%-5.73
−142022-05-161.087-0.082-7.05%-2.51
−72022-05-231.126-0.043-3.67%-1.30
−32022-05-231.126-0.043-3.67%-1.30
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1690.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.256+0.087+7.47%+2.66
+142022-06-131.240+0.071+6.10%+2.17
+302022-06-271.205+0.036+3.08%+1.09
+602022-07-251.098-0.071-6.11%-2.17
+902022-08-290.9500-0.219-18.73%-6.66

One volatility unit for this series is 2.81%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.4370.4212022-05-02: 0.4255 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.4245 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.4273 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.4292 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.4357 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.4342 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.4314 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.4254 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.4229 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.4255-0.004-0.87%-0.33
−142022-05-160.4245-0.005-1.10%-0.42
−72022-05-230.4273-0.002-0.44%-0.17
−32022-05-230.4273-0.002-0.44%-0.17
−12022-05-30same print as T00.42920.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.42920.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.42920.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.42920.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.4357+0.006+1.51%+0.58
+142022-06-130.4342+0.005+1.16%+0.44
+302022-06-270.4314+0.002+0.51%+0.20
+602022-07-250.4254-0.004-0.89%-0.34
+902022-08-290.4229-0.006-1.48%-0.57

One volatility unit for this series is 2.61%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.4770.4312022-05-02: 0.4423 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.4521 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.4589 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.4652 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.4726 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.4668 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.4591 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.4498 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.4352 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.4423-0.023-4.94%-1.98
−142022-05-160.4521-0.013-2.82%-1.13
−72022-05-230.4589-0.006-1.35%-0.54
−32022-05-230.4589-0.006-1.35%-0.54
−12022-05-30same print as T00.46520.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.46520.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.46520.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.46520.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.4726+0.007+1.58%+0.63
+142022-06-130.4668+0.002+0.33%+0.13
+302022-06-270.4591-0.006-1.31%-0.53
+602022-07-250.4498-0.015-3.31%-1.33
+902022-08-290.4352-0.030-6.45%-2.59

One volatility unit for this series is 2.50%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–26.02 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–1.772 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed94.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-1.05% from the level at T0 = -0.53 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed10,534,523 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-0.42% from the level at T0 = -0.16 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.249 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+11.64% from the level at T0 = +3.51 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.680 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+8.56% from the level at T0 = +3.28 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Poland, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

2022-06-272022-08-29-40-2002040c/L since the anchor week
  • Actual pre-tax change(official prices)
  • What crude alone would have done(calculated, with range)
  • Shaded: not explained by crude(not attributed to any cause)

Changes are measured from the bulletin week of 2022-05-30. Crude response taken from the stored pass-through estimate over the most recent three-year window (2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14). The light band is a conservative range, not a 90% interval. The shaded area is not explained by crude: refining margins, freight, retail margins and model error are all inside it, and none is named as its cause.

  • Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +5.8 c/L (range +2.8–+8.8); it actually moved +3.6 c/L, leaving -2.2 c/L not explained by crude.
  • Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +12.4 c/L (range +2.1–+22.7); it actually moved -21.9 c/L, leaving -34.3 c/L not explained by crude.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +7.5%, which is 2.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.25637
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    7.994734559418676
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.47207062325709
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.655995925231611
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08735000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.47207062325709
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.655995925231611
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.25637
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    7.994734559418676
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.47207062325709
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.655995925231611
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08735000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.47207062325709
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.655995925231611

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 427049f0205b8ba4b28ddc1a76baa26fed38186722c69733bad4b5f865219b26 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +3.1%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.205
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.604707288958002
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.077791654548265
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0940209890078267
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03598000000000012
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.077791654548265
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0940209890078267
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.205
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.604707288958002
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.077791654548265
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.0940209890078267
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03598000000000012
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.077791654548265
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.0940209890078267

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 083431324c1a78040398b278c271f2324d210a81740058dc257a7656a79f30f2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved -18.7%, which is 6.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.95004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.2942873163885861
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -18.73192930830952
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.658385663505642
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21897999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.73192930830952
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.658385663505642
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.95004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.2942873163885861
    t0_value
    1.16902
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -18.73192930830952
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.658385663505642
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21897999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.73192930830952
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8132839181993483
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.658385663505642

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint dbef68e1f2bfc848ba27f38e6f3f829f7540bd22b57836fe3012bcb4dc73f158 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +5.8%, which is 2.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.72895
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    7.309626544248142
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.795354415508117
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.706030401182875
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09470999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.795354415508117
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.706030401182875
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.72895
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    7.309626544248142
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.795354415508117
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.706030401182875
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09470999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.795354415508117
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.706030401182875

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 39e9d865d1b4ff62b135f55b60102c2bf7e4d43541bfca5546253521ad03a74c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.8%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.66411
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    5.871577887112998
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.8277609163892599
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.8534381594692448
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02986999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.8277609163892599
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.8534381594692448
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.66411
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    5.871577887112998
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.8277609163892599
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.8534381594692448
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02986999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.8277609163892599
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.8534381594692448

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 97138cfddd8023aeace38b6bda6fadd7871b5dfdcccce68775399a777b8c920d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -15.2%, which is 7.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.38524
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.31331768684254335
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -15.236440180144905
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -7.11436564137406
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2490000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -15.236440180144905
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    change_in_volatility_units
    -7.11436564137406
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.38524
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.31331768684254335
    t0_value
    1.6342400000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -15.236440180144905
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -7.11436564137406
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2490000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -15.236440180144905
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1416442376164064
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -7.11436564137406

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fe9dbd09db92e143d56d454d6118aba87e56de6beec10cd0ac7dd6693a2c59ae · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component petrol price moved +1.6%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.47258
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    3.354953014247134
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.5820472034736084
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6339067329389686
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.007359999999999922
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5820472034736084
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6339067329389686
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.47258
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    3.354953014247134
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.5820472034736084
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6339067329389686
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.007359999999999922
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5820472034736084
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6339067329389686

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea4f8fe06ad30efb0c182ed63f367312a3bc834f92dba3da96f627c8904655c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component petrol price moved -1.3%, which is 0.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.45911
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    2.030806845501374
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.3133571213619488
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.526245942697986
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.00611000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.3133571213619488
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.526245942697986
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.45911
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    2.030806845501374
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.3133571213619488
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.526245942697986
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.00611000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.3133571213619488
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.526245942697986

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 77bff0910e15cf88b392e4f19bdcf2ef0ddbf29020a0813d0e30670a0dcc922c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component petrol price moved -6.5%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.4352
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.31962633153732173
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.452861011994346
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.5855815384277316
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030020000000000102
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.452861011994346
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.5855815384277316
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.4352
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.31962633153732173
    t0_value
    0.4652200000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.452861011994346
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.5855815384277316
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030020000000000102
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.452861011994346
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4957097334158225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.5855815384277316

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f518c67367833003f5816a52c1f4fe7cfa63f77344dd599ce5e77adb9980df3a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +6.9%, which is 2.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.19513
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.8152428705026381
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.857827490321252
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0683995735776923
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07669999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.857827490321252
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0683995735776923
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.19513
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.8152428705026381
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.857827490321252
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0683995735776923
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07669999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.857827490321252
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0683995735776923

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c80ca77a45e3b02668de6888089cb12487f616c7f2ea1385c9b4547b7ad352d9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +11.6%, which is 3.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.24866
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.5826254468843797
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.64400096563934
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.5119644910954766
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13023000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.64400096563934
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.5119644910954766
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.24866
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.5826254468843797
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.64400096563934
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.5119644910954766
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13023000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.64400096563934
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.5119644910954766

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a9f35bcf3aa20c9ba3c12290ac101fcf914c4546d9f21d4f3a69e894c2ccc2f3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +5.7%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18168
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.6224295760446823
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.6552488756560555
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.7056880447038998
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06325000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.6552488756560555
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.7056880447038998
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18168
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.6224295760446823
    t0_value
    1.11843
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.6552488756560555
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.7056880447038998
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06325000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.6552488756560555
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.3155235467677695
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.7056880447038998

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8303deec154da7a6879eb48081303f1747dc9893c6f74e6a305ed02f86ce9865 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +5.4%, which is 2.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.63085
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.8868699621311442
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.375892482150338
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0625754858957412
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08319999999999972
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.375892482150338
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0625754858957412
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.63085
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.8868699621311442
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.375892482150338
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0625754858957412
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08319999999999972
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.375892482150338
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0625754858957412

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8bb9a8ae9acfc5ed619cb3a731d553c4d5bfbdef48949c5ce01d9a952dd3fbb0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +8.6%, which is 3.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.6800899999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.5017721779446391
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.557490388653743
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.2832631893273105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13243999999999967
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.557490388653743
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.2832631893273105
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.6800899999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.5017721779446391
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.557490388653743
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.2832631893273105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13243999999999967
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.557490388653743
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.2832631893273105

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b8fa6865338b82154f08030622e7db74f6ad7870b8f84dc2869ddbac1e01c4b6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +3.7%, which is 1.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.60455
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.5584392497855933
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.676541853778291
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4105834753301383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05689999999999973
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.676541853778291
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4105834753301383
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.60455
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.5584392497855933
    t0_value
    1.5476500000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.676541853778291
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4105834753301383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05689999999999973
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.676541853778291
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6063979325419355
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4105834753301383

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 89609d4adc0cb0242970a6d1ba15e219b42d9348d04668409111ed9ee32fd65d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component diesel price moved +1.5%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.43572
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.2060139933165765
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5143749126321655
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5810026645611985
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006499999999999784
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5143749126321655
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5810026645611985
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.43572
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    1.2060139933165765
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5143749126321655
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5810026645611985
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006499999999999784
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5143749126321655
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5810026645611985

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d5b836d94b6d96b706ec72f6dccd16336dd8d519c08e9babcfdd401fbdf11760 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component diesel price moved +0.5%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.4314299999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.840374415130838
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.5148874702948864
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.19754090595078835
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.002209999999999712
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.5148874702948864
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.19754090595078835
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.4314299999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.840374415130838
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.5148874702948864
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.19754090595078835
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.002209999999999712
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.5148874702948864
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.19754090595078835

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a8be3f6a50953a3312dca3a41cbf8e6a2c8568f9e4246d61960f7930ac0750a9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Poland's tax-component diesel price moved -1.5%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.42287
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.11079987217749669
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.479427799263824
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5675949107636682
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.006350000000000189
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.479427799263824
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5675949107636682
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.42287
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.11079987217749669
    t0_value
    0.4292200000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.479427799263824
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5675949107636682
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.006350000000000189
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.479427799263824
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.606485314100745
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5675949107636682

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fc037bda3470373f284a040b938552a48381384f8d8a887a1fa32c77a23c2b8a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +5.8 c/L (range +2.8–+8.8); it actually moved +3.6 c/L, leaving -2.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.021842307277463113
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.03598000000000012
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.057822307277463236
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.02806897568783484
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08757563886709172
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.021842307277463113
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.03598000000000012
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.057822307277463236
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.02806897568783484
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08757563886709172
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 46618c0d63802126a62e07536ddcbbf2d8800a214ce49991752a51ea54f63401 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +12.4 c/L (range +2.1–+22.7); it actually moved -21.9 c/L, leaving -34.3 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.34273365855530247
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21897999999999995
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.12375365855530254
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.02086920673834241
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22663811037226414
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.34273365855530247
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21897999999999995
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.12375365855530254
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.02086920673834241
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22663811037226414
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 24225291ccdccbce11d220b60ba7032af2e34aa52988bbbf972bd13bd3b89f08 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +5.2 c/L (range -0.4–+10.8); it actually moved +13.0 c/L, leaving +7.8 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07829126200577999
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.13023000000000007
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.05193873799422008
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.004171363259856037
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.10804883924829561
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07829126200577999
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.13023000000000007
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.05193873799422008
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.004171363259856037
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.10804883924829561
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 7dacab23789603172d19495c852d255468e30491cfc15ee29c75a57032e01842 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +6.4 c/L (range -9.6–+22.5); it actually moved +6.3 c/L, leaving -0.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.0011038763743568408
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06325000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06435387637435687
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09622034237383445
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22492809512254558
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.0011038763743568408
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06325000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06435387637435687
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09622034237383445
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22492809512254558
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f77d500cc01c1785df47775dfed6d430a8eb2039a1d40e8b7e4b2da18b914a6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0%–29%) for Poland in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    28.8456727387973
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    28.8456727387973
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint fa172667071714d90c11c706dc5496f23b7c345660bd7f6268390f42e77c3a30 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–7%) for Poland in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about PolandCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    7.43831977040719
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    7.43831977040719
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 24355e302c971cb418f72acf8ae880d17d9fde69f63b1ba7fbed7cb667ce4cd3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Poland's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were -5.1% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -5.091931889101045
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    2044642
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2154339.5
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -5.091931889101045
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    2044642
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2154339.5
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint f91084223dfde5994eaa5278975d94871f3553c3a4edf16858596bbf12ceecc3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Poland's oil stocks stood 0.6% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 95.0 days of cover (as published).

    about PolandCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    95
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -2.4227424845407493
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    10579377
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    10514708.666666666
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    0.6150273429671185
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    0.6150273429671185
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    0.6
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    95
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -2.4227424845407493
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    10579377
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    10514708.666666666
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    0.6150273429671185
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 9e50b8c46c3efdf4f23b8a010d23acdbb7202b78ec211e1c1726357e93d2eba6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Poland around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0–29%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about PolandUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    moderate
    dependence_range
    0–29%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    moderate
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–29%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint fabca0a8bc56869569c4ab1381a4b72071a8dbdee71c81b7c6d48a143a0d61da · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Poland: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.