Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Slovakia, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

286 published readings, 0 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90554,200200,8002022-05-01: 499,899 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 235,000 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 310,000 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 520,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01499,899+264,899+112.72%+5.27
−142022-05-01499,899+264,899+112.72%+5.27
−72022-05-01499,899+264,899+112.72%+5.27
−32022-05-01499,899+264,899+112.72%+5.27
−12022-05-01499,899+264,899+112.72%+5.27
T02022-06-01same print as T0235,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0235,0000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0235,0000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0235,0000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0235,0000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01310,000+75,000+31.91%+1.49
+602022-07-01310,000+75,000+31.91%+1.49
+902022-08-01520,000+285,000+121.28%+5.67

One volatility unit for this series is 21.39%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1600.9692022-05-02: 0.9875 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.020 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.045 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.104 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.129 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.138 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.141 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.090 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9875-0.084-7.84%-0.92
−142022-05-161.020-0.052-4.83%-0.57
−72022-05-231.045-0.026-2.46%-0.29
−32022-05-231.045-0.026-2.46%-0.29
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.104+0.033+3.06%+0.36
+142022-06-131.129+0.057+5.35%+0.63
+302022-06-271.138+0.066+6.16%+0.72
+602022-07-251.141+0.070+6.52%+0.76
+902022-08-291.090+0.018+1.72%+0.20

One volatility unit for this series is 8.53%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0220.9272022-05-02: 0.9362 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.9579 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.9669 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.9789 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.9945 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.007 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.011 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.013 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.002 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9362-0.043-4.36%-3.52
−142022-05-160.9579-0.021-2.14%-1.72
−72022-05-230.9669-0.012-1.23%-0.99
−32022-05-230.9669-0.012-1.23%-0.99
−12022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.9945+0.016+1.60%+1.29
+142022-06-131.007+0.029+2.91%+2.35
+302022-06-271.011+0.032+3.24%+2.62
+602022-07-251.013+0.034+3.49%+2.82
+902022-08-291.002+0.023+2.35%+1.89

One volatility unit for this series is 1.24%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90109.296.82022-05-01: 108.0 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 104.0 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 98.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 98.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01108.0+4.000+3.85%+1.24
−142022-05-01108.0+4.000+3.85%+1.24
−72022-05-01108.0+4.000+3.85%+1.24
−32022-05-01108.0+4.000+3.85%+1.24
−12022-05-01108.0+4.000+3.85%+1.24
T02022-06-01same print as T0104.00.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0104.00.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0104.00.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0104.00.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0104.00.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0198.00-6.000-5.77%-1.86
+602022-07-0198.00-6.000-5.77%-1.86
+902022-08-0198.00-6.000-5.77%-1.86

One volatility unit for this series is 3.10%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901,634,0301,493,9702022-05-01: 1,620,476 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1,507,524 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 1,533,763 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 1,552,627 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-011,620,476+112,952+7.49%+2.30
−142022-05-011,620,476+112,952+7.49%+2.30
−72022-05-011,620,476+112,952+7.49%+2.30
−32022-05-011,620,476+112,952+7.49%+2.30
−12022-05-011,620,476+112,952+7.49%+2.30
T02022-06-01same print as T01,507,5240.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T01,507,5240.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T01,507,5240.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T01,507,5240.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T01,507,5240.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-011,533,763+26,239+1.74%+0.54
+602022-07-011,533,763+26,239+1.74%+0.54
+902022-08-011,552,627+45,103+2.99%+0.92

One volatility unit for this series is 3.25%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.092-0.0322022-05-02: 0.0666 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.0801 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0422 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: -0.0203 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0052 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0615 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.0143 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.0057 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.0666+0.067not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.0801+0.080not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0422+0.042not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0422+0.042not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-06-0.0203-0.020not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0052+0.005not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0615+0.062not publishednot published
+602022-07-250.0143+0.014not publishednot published
+902022-08-290.0057+0.006not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.060-0.1222022-05-02: -0.0457 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0208 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: -0.0105 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0051 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0423 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0408 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0292 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1046 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.0457-0.046not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0208-0.021not publishednot published
−72022-05-23-0.0105-0.011not publishednot published
−32022-05-23-0.0105-0.011not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0051+0.005not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0423+0.042not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0408+0.041not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0292-0.029not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1046-0.105not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.9371.7212022-05-02: 1.742 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.797 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.782 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.763 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.778 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.838 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.916 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.864 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.792 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.742-0.021-1.19%-0.95
−142022-05-161.797+0.034+1.93%+1.54
−72022-05-231.782+0.019+1.08%+0.86
−32022-05-231.782+0.019+1.08%+0.86
−12022-05-30same print as T01.7630.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.7630.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.7630.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.7630.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.778+0.015+0.85%+0.68
+142022-06-131.838+0.075+4.25%+3.40
+302022-06-271.916+0.153+8.68%+6.94
+602022-07-251.864+0.101+5.73%+4.58
+902022-08-291.792+0.029+1.64%+1.32

One volatility unit for this series is 1.25%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.9371.6982022-05-02: 1.721 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.777 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.800 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.827 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.852 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.912 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.914 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.833 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.729 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.721-0.106-5.80%-4.29
−142022-05-161.777-0.050-2.74%-2.02
−72022-05-231.800-0.027-1.48%-1.09
−32022-05-231.800-0.027-1.48%-1.09
−12022-05-30same print as T01.8270.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.8270.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.8270.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.8270.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.852+0.025+1.37%+1.01
+142022-06-131.912+0.085+4.65%+3.44
+302022-06-271.914+0.087+4.76%+3.52
+602022-07-251.833+0.006+0.33%+0.24
+902022-08-291.729-0.098-5.36%-3.96

One volatility unit for this series is 1.35%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2161.0372022-05-02: 1.054 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.100 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.087 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.084 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.134 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.199 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.156 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.096 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.054-0.018-1.63%-0.81
−142022-05-161.100+0.028+2.64%+1.31
−72022-05-231.087+0.016+1.48%+0.73
−32022-05-231.087+0.016+1.48%+0.73
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0720.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.084+0.013+1.17%+0.58
+142022-06-131.134+0.063+5.83%+2.89
+302022-06-271.199+0.128+11.90%+5.89
+602022-07-251.156+0.084+7.85%+3.89
+902022-08-291.096+0.024+2.25%+1.12

One volatility unit for this series is 2.02%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0710.8712022-05-02: 0.8905 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.9372 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.9564 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.9789 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.9997 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.050 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.051 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.9839 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.8972 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.8905-0.088-9.02%-3.20
−142022-05-160.9372-0.042-4.26%-1.51
−72022-05-230.9564-0.023-2.30%-0.82
−32022-05-230.9564-0.023-2.30%-0.82
−12022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.97890.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.9997+0.021+2.13%+0.76
+142022-06-131.050+0.071+7.24%+2.57
+302022-06-271.051+0.073+7.41%+2.63
+602022-07-250.9839+0.005+0.51%+0.18
+902022-08-290.8972-0.082-8.34%-2.96

One volatility unit for this series is 2.82%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7200.6852022-05-02: 0.6880 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6972 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6947 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.6915 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.6940 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7040 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7170 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.7083 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.6963 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6880-0.004-0.51%-1.14
−142022-05-160.6972+0.006+0.82%+1.85
−72022-05-230.6947+0.003+0.46%+1.03
−32022-05-230.6947+0.003+0.46%+1.03
−12022-05-30same print as T00.69150.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.69150.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.69150.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.69150.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.6940+0.002+0.36%+0.81
+142022-06-130.7040+0.013+1.81%+4.07
+302022-06-270.7170+0.026+3.69%+8.31
+602022-07-250.7083+0.017+2.44%+5.49
+902022-08-290.6963+0.005+0.70%+1.58

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8670.8272022-05-02: 0.8305 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.8398 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.8437 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.8482 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.8523 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.8623 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.8627 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.8492 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.8318 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.8305-0.018-2.08%-5.30
−142022-05-160.8398-0.008-0.98%-2.50
−72022-05-230.8437-0.004-0.53%-1.35
−32022-05-230.8437-0.004-0.53%-1.35
−12022-05-30same print as T00.84820.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.84820.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.84820.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.84820.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.8523+0.004+0.49%+1.25
+142022-06-130.8623+0.014+1.67%+4.25
+302022-06-270.8627+0.015+1.71%+4.35
+602022-07-250.8492+0.001+0.12%+0.30
+902022-08-290.8318-0.016-1.93%-4.90

One volatility unit for this series is 0.39%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed
0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed
0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
98.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-5.77% from the level at T0 = -1.86 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
1,533,763 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+1.74% from the level at T0 = +0.54 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
1.199 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+11.90% from the level at T0 = +5.89 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
1.916 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+8.68% from the level at T0 = +6.94 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Slovakia, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'slovakia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.1%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.99968
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.687870747727845
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.128007355570314
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7550194899335428
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.020830000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.128007355570314
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7550194899335428
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.99968
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.687870747727845
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.128007355570314
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7550194899335428
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.020830000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.128007355570314
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7550194899335428

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 06c363d2b2918ab8fc7e9b90b34ca287489d823f1f025790bb5de4f15fe65990 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax petrol price moved +7.4%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.05135
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.693597772003361
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.406650661490525
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.6278882870946627
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07250000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.406650661490525
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.6278882870946627
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.05135
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.693597772003361
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.406650661490525
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.6278882870946627
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07250000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.406650661490525
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.6278882870946627

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8d1a698b357c2f35ef2ab5455d667afe9693bd0c994c6da783a8e30d04198d6b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax petrol price moved -8.3%, which is 3.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.89718
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.6927668191766471
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.343464269295604
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.9602708469933945
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08167000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.343464269295604
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.9602708469933945
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.89718
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.6927668191766471
    t0_value
    0.97885
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.343464269295604
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.9602708469933945
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08167000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.343464269295604
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.8184800312341896
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.9602708469933945

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 1c3b84007cacc63635217d6061ae32fa790f0353089aa992f268d6f8a6ef194c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.4%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.6879207215067717
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.368363437328962
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.010932777007318
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025000000000000133
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.368363437328962
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.010932777007318
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.6879207215067717
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.368363437328962
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.010932777007318
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025000000000000133
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.368363437328962
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.010932777007318

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5415704103404c8824a390620413cfd6b8e86ba7878f92ecdc785bae717745f1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +4.8%, which is 3.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.9140000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.6935738190360303
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.7619047619047725
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.518046063985456
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08700000000000019
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.7619047619047725
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.518046063985456
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.9140000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.6935738190360303
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.7619047619047725
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.518046063985456
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08700000000000019
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.7619047619047725
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.518046063985456

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ff6148bcde267a595d7f21cc2df0ace954f2ab76abbee19842c46c24c57af2e3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -5.4%, which is 4.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.729
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.692834737698728
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -5.363984674329495
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.9628564858686604
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09799999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.363984674329495
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.9628564858686604
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.729
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.692834737698728
    t0_value
    1.827
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -5.363984674329495
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.9628564858686604
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09799999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.363984674329495
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3535652107153475
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.9628564858686604

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6d309f7c1a370c8ee67f80279854dc910f717341f9c876507ad8be668bccb188 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component petrol price moved +0.5%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.85232
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.688170499358545
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.491658315156518
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2516716111453772
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.004170000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.491658315156518
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2516716111453772
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.85232
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.688170499358545
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.491658315156518
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2516716111453772
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.004170000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.491658315156518
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2516716111453772

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 1c37e1c40cdfb475de5b7762d99e2635488ed55257a6d4ce81e81725d725e15d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component petrol price moved +1.7%, which is 4.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8626500000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.6934539540990268
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.7096032541413877
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.352335338515147
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01450000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.7096032541413877
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.352335338515147
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8626500000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    3.6934539540990268
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.7096032541413877
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.352335338515147
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01450000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.7096032541413877
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.352335338515147

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2844c567e5178d98fd1d015fa589a872cedff22cfec66fe6551cf5508ab2c609 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component petrol price moved -1.9%, which is 4.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83182
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.6931742919839583
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.9253669751812719
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.901630074341467
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.016329999999999956
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.9253669751812719
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.901630074341467
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83182
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    0.6931742919839583
    t0_value
    0.84815
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.9253669751812719
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.901630074341467
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.016329999999999956
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.9253669751812719
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.3928013632158776
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.901630074341467

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint cc23b198de90583c6fea925d0c31e9b480391c685e348c28cd545af4e8c52303 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax diesel price moved +1.2%, which is 0.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.08402
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4974976219072584
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.1665671196057894
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5770834686964199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.012499999999999956
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.1665671196057894
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5770834686964199
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.08402
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4974976219072584
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.1665671196057894
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5770834686964199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.012499999999999956
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.1665671196057894
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5770834686964199

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b85f29f9dc6ed9363047ce3b5995ae4cde96fb4ffeb23514bddb66758668afe2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax diesel price moved +11.9%, which is 5.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.19902
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945476175995811
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.898984619979089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.886251380703502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.12749999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.898984619979089
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.886251380703502
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.19902
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945476175995811
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.898984619979089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.886251380703502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.12749999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.898984619979089
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.886251380703502

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4b4b6bd76fee40f77fc14f7870a07e7ecfaab5d8bf569f646ca2317ba775ceda · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.3%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.09568
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.644310056173976
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.254740928774074
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.1153869282964426
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02415999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.254740928774074
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.1153869282964426
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.09568
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.644310056173976
    t0_value
    1.07152
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.254740928774074
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.1153869282964426
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02415999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.254740928774074
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.0214876753287707
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.1153869282964426

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ee45ea3fc72abc3e71da267fb5db5e456c7b17b6cff5d1167740922a6c91b6fb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +0.9%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.778
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4974319631805715
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.8508224617129836
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6807442581700943
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.014999999999999902
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.8508224617129836
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6807442581700943
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.778
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4974319631805715
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.8508224617129836
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6807442581700943
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.014999999999999902
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.8508224617129836
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6807442581700943

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a653665ba541c3395512fc66c44e679da3c5d2d490ae7e31ac1c6fd386b64bb7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +8.7%, which is 6.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.9160000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945399206856682
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.67838910947249
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.943591433335009
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15300000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.67838910947249
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.943591433335009
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.9160000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945399206856682
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.67838910947249
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.943591433335009
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15300000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.67838910947249
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.943591433335009

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fa70defab3b1da2beb6703f9673b19a04915d35ff86a9d9e439b6613ce27cce4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.6%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.792
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.644327190799887
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.6449234259784409
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3161055657955205
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028999999999999915
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.6449234259784409
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3161055657955205
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.792
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.644327190799887
    t0_value
    1.7630000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.6449234259784409
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3161055657955205
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028999999999999915
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.6449234259784409
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2498415543012815
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3161055657955205

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fa76682f3c36796feeb3e21b20e5c468a985a5cdf3a47960c5d9ad672f1b68e3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component diesel price moved +0.4%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69398
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4971036768851962
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.36154335627927725
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.81435655939383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0024999999999999467
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.36154335627927725
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.81435655939383
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69398
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.4971036768851962
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.36154335627927725
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.81435655939383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0024999999999999467
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.36154335627927725
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.81435655939383

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 93c797011cba4d52b741a9701bbc527dbe63523f63fe921987616099fd1136c7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component diesel price moved +3.7%, which is 8.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7169800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945014363366342
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.687742234048702
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.306436905817232
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025499999999999967
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.687742234048702
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.306436905817232
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7169800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    2.945014363366342
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.687742234048702
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.306436905817232
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025499999999999967
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.687742234048702
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.306436905817232

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f1a67cf55f99e277bbd9f6f06e7593a2ee475ac55950d080edafad3157ed703 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Slovakia's tax-component diesel price moved +0.7%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69632
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.6444128510750176
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.6999479377566893
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.576594298986474
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0048399999999999554
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6999479377566893
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.576594298986474
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69632
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    z_score
    1.6444128510750176
    t0_value
    0.6914800000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.6999479377566893
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_SK_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.576594298986474
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0048399999999999554
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6999479377566893
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.4439619870544098
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.576594298986474

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bfc1171d2b226655d6035ba436b88da5b3e729822117196cb2713388f7a2c1e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Slovakia's pre-tax petrol price by +3.2 c/L (range -0.2–+6.5); it actually moved +7.3 c/L, leaving +4.1 c/L not explained by crude.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.04076563559520134
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.07250000000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.03173436440479867
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.001827253130309802
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.06529598193990699
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.04076563559520134
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.07250000000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.03173436440479867
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.001827253130309802
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.06529598193990699
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 131ec4bd0051d1eb843b3c263fc5fdf99d3676c2e48912ea6f8338994c711327 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Slovakia's pre-tax petrol price by +2.3 c/L (range -9.6–+14.2); it actually moved -8.2 c/L, leaving -10.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10463168535738654
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08167000000000002
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.022961685357386512
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09577413775513288
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14169750846990575
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10463168535738654
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08167000000000002
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.022961685357386512
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09577413775513288
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14169750846990575
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint e14d64f8a33c7f616c8460fd8fc09fc1eec7dbb2b0390778e958a6f059c80a4b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Slovakia's pre-tax diesel price by +6.6 c/L (range +1.3–+11.9); it actually moved +12.7 c/L, leaving +6.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.061500007261814954
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.12749999999999995
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06599999273818499
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.013094298152838439
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11890568732353127
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.061500007261814954
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.12749999999999995
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06599999273818499
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.013094298152838439
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11890568732353127
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint be660ca23e7a184d41aff5769f75f957fbfc36a89e4af6ec1d61def9b6fbf334 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Slovakia's pre-tax diesel price by +1.8 c/L (range -12.4–+16.1); it actually moved +2.4 c/L, leaving +0.6 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.005711582769888687
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.02415999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.018448417230111272
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.12435987158468899
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.16125670604491132
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovakia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SK_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.005711582769888687
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.02415999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.018448417230111272
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.12435987158468899
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.16125670604491132
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 191119401b9c48a9ca8fdcbb0a62620cb9c24516c155016ab04cd04d1546bb3b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0%) for Slovakia in 2022-06.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 26fac1f31b07812a394d1fe1de76871d1c726b72ffa1354ab9643fbeca2fae22 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Slovakia in 2022-06.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 657d88104d533d9578066058919e996124c76459e6b9ad42e36c512d96deb092 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Slovakia's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were -50.0% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Slovakia
    change_pct
    -50.01768877539084
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    235000
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    470166.3333333333
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Slovakia
    change_pct
    -50.01768877539084
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    235000
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    470166.3333333333
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint daf6ed1b8d3f2b678304b2089a25844e165a0e396635b10631683435e6d6af10 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. In 2022-06, Slovakia's oil stocks stood 9.9% above their trailing 12-month mean, with 104.0 days of cover (as published).

    about SlovakiaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_SK
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    days_of_cover
    104
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -6.970297616255964
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1507524
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1371425.5
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    9.923871183669839
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    9.923871183669839
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    9.9
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovakia
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_SK
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    days_of_cover
    104
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -6.970297616255964
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1507524
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1371425.5
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    9.923871183669839
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.above v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ba353fdc92907e5ae4fc889eaf26dc42cf5360e6af3d7f63c37143cd1e4f713 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Slovakia around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0–0%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about SlovakiaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Slovakia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Slovakia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SK
    country_name
    Slovakia
    country_slug
    slovakia
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint a646614ad68e361362afac2faf1fed55777630f3a9af19f25cea5310f4362b50 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Slovakia: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.