Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Latvia, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

273 published readings, 13 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2600.9212022-05-02: 0.9536 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.027 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.051 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.099 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.144 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.186 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.221 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.227 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9536-0.145-13.23%-0.59
−142022-05-161.027-0.071-6.51%-0.29
−72022-05-231.051-0.048-4.40%-0.20
−32022-05-231.051-0.048-4.40%-0.20
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.144+0.045+4.12%+0.18
+142022-06-131.186+0.087+7.89%+0.35
+302022-06-271.214+0.115+10.43%+0.47
+602022-07-251.221+0.122+11.13%+0.50
+902022-08-291.227+0.128+11.65%+0.52

One volatility unit for this series is 22.30%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0991.0462022-05-02: 1.052 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.061 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.068 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.092 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.093 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.090 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.071 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.031-2.89%-3.59
−142022-05-161.061-0.022-1.99%-2.47
−72022-05-231.068-0.015-1.34%-1.67
−32022-05-231.068-0.015-1.34%-1.67
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.092+0.009+0.84%+1.05
+142022-06-131.093+0.011+0.98%+1.22
+302022-06-271.090+0.008+0.70%+0.87
+602022-07-251.083-0.000-0.02%-0.03
+902022-08-291.071-0.012-1.07%-1.33

One volatility unit for this series is 0.81%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+901.120-0.120

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+9085.0576.952022-05-01: 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
−142022-05-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
−72022-05-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
−32022-05-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-05-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-06-01same print as T081.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T081.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T081.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T081.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T081.000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
+602022-07-0181.000.0000.00%0.00
+902022-08-0181.000.0000.00%0.00

One volatility unit for this series is 14.70%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90431,769418,1942022-05-01: 428,455 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 428,455 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 430,455 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 419,508 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01428,4550.0000.00%0.00
−142022-05-01428,4550.0000.00%0.00
−72022-05-01428,4550.0000.00%0.00
−32022-05-01428,4550.0000.00%0.00
−12022-05-01428,4550.0000.00%0.00
T02022-06-01same print as T0428,4550.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0428,4550.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0428,4550.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0428,4550.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0428,4550.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01430,455+2,000+0.47%+0.05
+602022-07-01430,455+2,000+0.47%+0.05
+902022-08-01419,508-8,947-2.09%-0.21

One volatility unit for this series is 9.89%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.200-0.1932022-05-02: 0.1618 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.1088 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0719 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0312 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0377 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0981 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0840 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1550 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.1618+0.162not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.1088+0.109not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0719+0.072not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0719+0.072not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0312+0.031not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0377+0.038not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0981+0.098not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0840-0.084not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1550-0.155not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.144-0.1202022-05-02: -0.0833 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0472 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: -0.0069 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0692 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.1187 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.1180 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0344 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.0946 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.0833-0.083not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0472-0.047not publishednot published
−72022-05-23-0.0069-0.007not publishednot published
−32022-05-23-0.0069-0.007not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0692+0.069not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.1187+0.119not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.1180+0.118not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0344-0.034not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.0946-0.095not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902.1421.7832022-05-02: 1.870 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.895 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.879 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.850 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.943 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.001 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.108 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.897 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.818 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.870+0.020+1.07%+0.48
−142022-05-161.895+0.045+2.44%+1.10
−72022-05-231.879+0.029+1.54%+0.70
−32022-05-231.879+0.029+1.54%+0.70
−12022-05-30same print as T01.8500.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.8500.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.8500.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.8500.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.943+0.093+5.00%+2.26
+142022-06-132.001+0.151+8.13%+3.68
+302022-06-272.108+0.257+13.92%+6.29
+602022-07-251.897+0.046+2.51%+1.14
+902022-08-291.818-0.033-1.76%-0.80

One volatility unit for this series is 2.21%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902.1361.7702022-05-02: 1.805 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.861 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.918 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.944 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 2.039 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.101 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.096 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.902 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.815 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.805-0.139-7.13%-3.77
−142022-05-161.861-0.083-4.28%-2.26
−72022-05-231.918-0.026-1.34%-0.71
−32022-05-231.918-0.026-1.34%-0.71
−12022-05-30same print as T01.9440.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.9440.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.9440.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.9440.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-062.039+0.095+4.88%+2.58
+142022-06-132.101+0.157+8.05%+4.26
+302022-06-272.096+0.152+7.82%+4.14
+602022-07-251.902-0.042-2.16%-1.14
+902022-08-291.815-0.129-6.61%-3.50

One volatility unit for this series is 1.89%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3401.0432022-05-02: 1.115 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.136 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.123 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.099 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.175 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.223 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.312 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.137 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.072 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.115+0.016+1.49%+0.40
−142022-05-161.136+0.037+3.40%+0.90
−72022-05-231.123+0.024+2.14%+0.57
−32022-05-231.123+0.024+2.14%+0.57
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0990.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.175+0.077+6.96%+1.85
+142022-06-131.223+0.124+11.32%+3.01
+302022-06-271.312+0.213+19.36%+5.14
+602022-07-251.137+0.038+3.49%+0.93
+902022-08-291.072-0.027-2.46%-0.65

One volatility unit for this series is 3.76%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2410.9392022-05-02: 0.9683 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.014 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.061 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.161 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.212 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.208 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.048 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.9766 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9683-0.115-10.58%-2.81
−142022-05-161.014-0.069-6.35%-1.68
−72022-05-231.061-0.021-1.98%-0.53
−32022-05-231.061-0.021-1.98%-0.53
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0830.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.161+0.078+7.24%+1.92
+142022-06-131.212+0.129+11.94%+3.17
+302022-06-271.208+0.126+11.60%+3.08
+602022-07-251.048-0.035-3.20%-0.85
+902022-08-290.9766-0.106-9.81%-2.60

One volatility unit for this series is 3.77%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8020.7402022-05-02: 0.7547 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.7591 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.7562 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7512 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7673 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7773 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7959 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.7593 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.7456 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.7547+0.003+0.46%+0.44
−142022-05-160.7591+0.008+1.04%+0.99
−72022-05-230.7562+0.005+0.66%+0.63
−32022-05-230.7562+0.005+0.66%+0.63
−12022-05-30same print as T00.75120.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.75120.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.75120.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.75120.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7673+0.016+2.14%+2.03
+142022-06-130.7773+0.026+3.48%+3.31
+302022-06-270.7959+0.045+5.95%+5.65
+602022-07-250.7593+0.008+1.07%+1.02
+902022-08-290.7456-0.006-0.75%-0.72

One volatility unit for this series is 1.05%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8940.8312022-05-02: 0.8371 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.8467 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.8566 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.8612 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.8776 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.8883 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.8875 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.8539 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.8388 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.8371-0.024-2.80%-3.69
−142022-05-160.8467-0.014-1.68%-2.22
−72022-05-230.8566-0.005-0.52%-0.69
−32022-05-230.8566-0.005-0.52%-0.69
−12022-05-30same print as T00.86120.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.86120.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.86120.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.86120.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.8776+0.016+1.91%+2.52
+142022-06-130.8883+0.027+3.15%+4.17
+302022-06-270.8875+0.026+3.06%+4.05
+602022-07-250.8539-0.007-0.85%-1.12
+902022-08-290.8388-0.022-2.59%-3.42

One volatility unit for this series is 0.76%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Nothing published in the window
not published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed
0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
81.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
430,455 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+0.47% from the level at T0 = +0.05 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
1.312 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+19.36% from the level at T0 = +5.14 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
2.108 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+13.92% from the level at T0 = +6.29 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Latvia, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'latvia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +7.2%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1612200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101993863000352
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.237382832340609
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9204596972871169
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07837000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.237382832340609
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9204596972871169
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1612200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101993863000352
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.237382832340609
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9204596972871169
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07837000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.237382832340609
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9204596972871169

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9ea94e3274c6b0c80065bbfd05cf44fa2d641beac934a94bf82fa0a0f4f4abea · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +11.6%, which is 3.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2084700000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.0788278336589014
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.600868079604776
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.078322663942929
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1256200000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.600868079604776
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.078322663942929
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2084700000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.0788278336589014
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.600868079604776
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.078322663942929
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1256200000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.600868079604776
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.078322663942929

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 30e38d7ff4fae702a00628a07324e3cc111e81950d366fd1279728d7512f00ee · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved -9.8%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.97664
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.286035888309238
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -9.808376044696859
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.6026799087516115
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.10620999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.808376044696859
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.6026799087516115
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.97664
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.286035888309238
    t0_value
    1.0828499999999999
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -9.808376044696859
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.6026799087516115
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.10620999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.808376044696859
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.768567933273629
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.6026799087516115

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8ce865c0cf905e1a1b82459f9af821914e27808db76c8920f2e783c480b6737b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +4.9%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.03883
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101891115874517
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.878086419753085
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5815161590281313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09482999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.878086419753085
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5815161590281313
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.03883
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101891115874517
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.878086419753085
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5815161590281313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09482999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.878086419753085
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5815161590281313

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e8ad31328a53a3406e624859ad43bfdd28fafdf43350e6e6f8ecbb3ca8e49b86 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +7.8%, which is 4.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.096
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.078641108830545
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.818930041152271
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.1378303930430915
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15200000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.818930041152271
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.1378303930430915
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.096
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.078641108830545
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.818930041152271
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.1378303930430915
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15200000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.818930041152271
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.1378303930430915

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3eed7a52345cfff1d0638e48926f61cf4e22b5245f95bc5c6ea7d29de7d87756 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -6.6%, which is 3.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.81548
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.28595424467059977
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.61111111111111
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.4986444875914313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12851999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.61111111111111
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.4986444875914313
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.81548
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.28595424467059977
    t0_value
    1.944
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.61111111111111
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.4986444875914313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12851999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.61111111111111
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.889620718697941
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.4986444875914313

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b598a14f6b19e512dc05ceb6bc7ee84705316de80a504eb38d3b4a4850183feb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component petrol price moved +1.9%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8776099999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101401729642111
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.9113975497880515
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5248729639688055
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016459999999999808
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.9113975497880515
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5248729639688055
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8776099999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    4.101401729642111
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.9113975497880515
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.5248729639688055
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016459999999999808
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.9113975497880515
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.5248729639688055

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c30ad7700b76e3a2c4c97a85aa680d332d39136709c77b12bce340c7d4d99aaf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component petrol price moved +3.1%, which is 4.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8875299999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.0777518705620555
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.0633455263310383
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.046546098997401
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026379999999999737
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.0633455263310383
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.046546098997401
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8875299999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    5.0777518705620555
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.0633455263310383
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.046546098997401
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026379999999999737
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.0633455263310383
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.046546098997401

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ea676d7945f5ea4cf1c225f580a9156400e8ce3edbfd91835f052ce728a0a263 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component petrol price moved -2.6%, which is 3.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83884
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.2855655438088092
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.5907217093421644
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.422230609121801
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.022310000000000052
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.5907217093421644
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.422230609121801
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.83884
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.2855655438088092
    t0_value
    0.8611500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.5907217093421644
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.422230609121801
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.022310000000000052
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.5907217093421644
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.7570272156518947
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.422230609121801

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 207d4979a977c5ee07469019c16684cf078080fd1874ba96d69e0db9942eb4f3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved +7.0%, which is 1.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1754600000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9181834502722692
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.962100186541705
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8491768195198057
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07651000000000008
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.962100186541705
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8491768195198057
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1754600000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9181834502722692
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.962100186541705
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8491768195198057
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07651000000000008
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.962100186541705
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8491768195198057

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2e42748467efbe2b851fc14f757e1a889c6cce04c0be449fb80277f045d77edb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved +19.4%, which is 5.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.31172
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.853921718032241
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.361208426225023
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.142456566321115
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2127699999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.361208426225023
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.142456566321115
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.31172
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.853921718032241
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.361208426225023
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.142456566321115
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2127699999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.361208426225023
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.142456566321115

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 044db51d7b3e82b22cfa6854005e2e713a956681903829a83c105affadc1ad82 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved -2.5%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.07196
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.4478406445100678
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.455980708858462
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.6523236486582098
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02699000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.455980708858462
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.6523236486582098
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.07196
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.4478406445100678
    t0_value
    1.09895
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.455980708858462
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.6523236486582098
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02699000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.455980708858462
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.7649726694874013
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.6523236486582098

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0cdfd3418f92928696c4745f55a173d6d244e415780a944b1e35ffaecc4689d4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +5.0%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.94275
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9181604883811187
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.003864509747746
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2632561302375054
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09257999999999988
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.003864509747746
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2632561302375054
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.94275
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9181604883811187
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.003864509747746
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2632561302375054
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09257999999999988
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.003864509747746
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2632561302375054

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 674d5165c8369a4c8fe982c9011856bbf8d9af51e777fe67d6447046f13dc6ad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +13.9%, which is 6.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.1076300000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.8539486309684117
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    13.915478037153354
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.293993554665688
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.25746000000000024
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.915478037153354
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.293993554665688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.1076300000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.8539486309684117
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    13.915478037153354
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.293993554665688
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.25746000000000024
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.915478037153354
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.293993554665688

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 77a377e7212897dbb9db5d1b583a535e5774896ec14492391ffdf12f92cf8947 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -1.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.81752
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.4478866583459048
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.7647027029948634
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7981779288426745
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03265000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.7647027029948634
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7981779288426745
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.81752
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.4478866583459048
    t0_value
    1.85017
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -1.7647027029948634
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7981779288426745
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03265000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.7647027029948634
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.210913931876832
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7981779288426745

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 71b781457eefb89a7bc026ac804a1985f5a87e682baacc1e7017582e02c0c96c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component diesel price moved +2.1%, which is 2.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7672899999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9180510809635334
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.1391869226058686
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.03342831886932
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016069999999999807
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.1391869226058686
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.03342831886932
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7672899999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    1.9180510809635334
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.1391869226058686
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.03342831886932
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016069999999999807
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.1391869226058686
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.03342831886932

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ab910f7055ab3b4a08527dec538e22ffb7fd2976a3054d3c3fc587ac2c8467b7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component diesel price moved +5.9%, which is 5.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7959100000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.8540766430365134
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.948989643513264
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.6548793758725395
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04469000000000034
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.948989643513264
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.6548793758725395
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7959100000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    3.8540766430365134
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.948989643513264
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.6548793758725395
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04469000000000034
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.948989643513264
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.6548793758725395

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3de3751776f5922b7f55e5022f11572117cfdcb0db9f2d43e459b23d563e0d19 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Latvia's tax-component diesel price moved -0.8%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.74556
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.44810574679705195
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.7534410691941107
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7161919281145295
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.005659999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.7534410691941107
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7161919281145295
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.74556
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    z_score
    0.44810574679705195
    t0_value
    0.75122
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -0.7534410691941107
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_LV_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.7161919281145295
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.005659999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.7534410691941107
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0520099984617874
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.7161919281145295

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 03b3ab5c6cf1f9526224b45e2e0e6f41a50204183507d60315859bf8b5750896 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by +0.8 c/L (range -3.4–+4.9); it actually moved +12.6 c/L, leaving +11.8 c/L not explained by crude.

    about LatviaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.118046891804374
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1256200000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.007573108195626288
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.03381934649636742
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.048965562887619996
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.118046891804374
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1256200000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.007573108195626288
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.03381934649636742
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.048965562887619996
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 7a3714f191c5d7f3e355b35cf413e2db4566f427bc39a4bd749a9af654b64360 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by -1.2 c/L (range -14.4–+12.1); it actually moved -10.6 c/L, leaving -9.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about LatviaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.09463431354176621
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.10620999999999992
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.011575686458233703
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.14428825434441972
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.12113688142795276
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.09463431354176621
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.10620999999999992
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.011575686458233703
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.14428825434441972
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.12113688142795276
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 95f6dfdf86fe39532c7ec91a8f12247f66a4e3743024edc1645f084572f1f551 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +11.5 c/L (range +4.5–+18.4); it actually moved +21.3 c/L, leaving +9.8 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about LatviaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.09814784960462791
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2127699999999999
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11462215039537199
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.045083277432652384
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.18416102335809176
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.09814784960462791
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2127699999999999
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.11462215039537199
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.045083277432652384
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.18416102335809176
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 6b449eb057ccb3bb7a6e555b574f998b492112ebb29c083bb6e303be512f1e47 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +12.8 c/L (range -10.9–+36.5); it actually moved -2.7 c/L, leaving -15.5 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about LatviaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15496972160279246
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.02699000000000007
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1279797216027924
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.10914247678003033
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.36510191998561586
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Latvia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15496972160279246
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.02699000000000007
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1279797216027924
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.10914247678003033
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.36510191998561586
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 09c603514243d4d082008be17110ce1688617a3a9b3cc1ebda07e196aeedcb8d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Latvia in 2022-06 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.

    about LatviaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Latvia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Latvia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f56f978dc5e1e62a61b862ab44aa0c65c8257a5a0b401667ab930a6fac69341 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Latvia in 2022-06.

    about LatviaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint c1250da2109a1be1a6d70c11fe17f042d005e860ff6e5d0123f5fa411543e104 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Whether Latvia's crude supply was physically reduced in 2022-06 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.

    about LatviaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Latvia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Latvia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 50a56055f205db4cd028194eb8f650aa6fb4fb7cb4116dbbc048c58fc731b6f2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Latvia's oil stocks stood 4.3% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 81.0 days of cover (as published).

    about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_LV
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    days_of_cover
    81
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    428455
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    447914.1666666667
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -4.344396340816786
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -4.344396340816786
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -4.3
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Latvia
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_LV
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    days_of_cover
    81
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    0
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    428455
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    447914.1666666667
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -4.344396340816786
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 8eef3469baca30b9ec21c5b8af1b98ab5a461c5d22310ce2861a1132d13eb1f7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Latvia around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about LatviaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Latvia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    dependence_band
    null
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Latvia
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LV
    country_name
    Latvia
    country_slug
    latvia
    dependence_band
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 67f890676cf3f6f0a0505b53909177581fb62d9a54f62dc29b27e2c4afcf67ec · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Latvia: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.