Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Greece, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902,314,1961,401,5012022-05-01: 2,225,871 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1,644,599 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 2,143,815 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 1,489,826 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-012,225,871+581,272+35.34%+1.44
−142022-05-012,225,871+581,272+35.34%+1.44
−72022-05-012,225,871+581,272+35.34%+1.44
−32022-05-012,225,871+581,272+35.34%+1.44
−12022-05-012,225,871+581,272+35.34%+1.44
T02022-06-01same print as T01,644,5990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T01,644,5990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T01,644,5990.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T01,644,5990.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T01,644,5990.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-012,143,815+499,216+30.35%+1.24
+602022-07-012,143,815+499,216+30.35%+1.24
+902022-08-011,489,826-154,773-9.41%-0.38

One volatility unit for this series is 24.50%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1710.9462022-05-02: 0.9674 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.016 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.043 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.077 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.116 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.149 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.128 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.136 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.092 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9674-0.110-10.20%-0.06
−142022-05-161.016-0.061-5.67%-0.03
−72022-05-231.043-0.034-3.20%-0.02
−32022-05-231.043-0.034-3.20%-0.02
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.116+0.039+3.62%+0.02
+142022-06-131.149+0.072+6.66%+0.04
+302022-06-271.128+0.051+4.69%+0.03
+602022-07-251.136+0.058+5.43%+0.03
+902022-08-291.092+0.014+1.33%+0.01

One volatility unit for this series is 175.04%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1781.0442022-05-02: 1.057 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.085 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.102 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.121 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.145 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.165 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.147 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.150 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.115 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.057-0.064-5.73%-3.57
−142022-05-161.085-0.036-3.21%-2.00
−72022-05-231.102-0.019-1.70%-1.06
−32022-05-231.102-0.019-1.70%-1.06
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.145+0.024+2.14%+1.33
+142022-06-131.165+0.044+3.93%+2.45
+302022-06-271.147+0.026+2.34%+1.45
+602022-07-251.150+0.029+2.57%+1.60
+902022-08-291.115-0.005-0.49%-0.30

One volatility unit for this series is 1.61%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+9063.8139.092022-05-01: 45.47 to 61.42 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-06-01: 41.48 to 59.14 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-07-01: 45.42 to 56.58 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 44.93 to 60.11 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-0141.48–59.14not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-0141.48–59.14not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-0141.48–59.14not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-0141.48–59.14not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-0141.48–59.14not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-0145.42–56.58not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-0145.42–56.58not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-0144.93–60.11not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+9028.650.002022-05-01: 0 to 12.04 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-06-01: 0 to 25.58 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-07-01: 0 to 19.26 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 0 to 13.23 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-010–25.58not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-06-010–25.58not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-06-010–25.58not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-06-010–25.58not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-06-010–25.58not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-07-010–19.26not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-07-010–19.26not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-08-010–13.23not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+90147.6110.42022-05-01: 144.0 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 126.0 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 126.0 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 114.0 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01144.0+18.000+14.29%+1.31
−142022-05-01144.0+18.000+14.29%+1.31
−72022-05-01144.0+18.000+14.29%+1.31
−32022-05-01144.0+18.000+14.29%+1.31
−12022-05-01144.0+18.000+14.29%+1.31
T02022-06-01same print as T0126.00.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0126.00.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0126.00.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0126.00.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0126.00.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01126.00.0000.00%0.00
+602022-07-01126.00.0000.00%0.00
+902022-08-01114.0-12.000-9.52%-0.87

One volatility unit for this series is 10.91%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+904,639,8053,858,2452022-05-01: 4,564,170 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 4,142,282 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 4,323,815 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 3,933,880 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-014,564,170+421,888+10.18%+1.49
−142022-05-014,564,170+421,888+10.18%+1.49
−72022-05-014,564,170+421,888+10.18%+1.49
−32022-05-014,564,170+421,888+10.18%+1.49
−12022-05-014,564,170+421,888+10.18%+1.49
T02022-06-01same print as T04,142,2820.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T04,142,2820.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T04,142,2820.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T04,142,2820.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T04,142,2820.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-014,323,815+181,533+4.38%+0.64
+602022-07-014,323,815+181,533+4.38%+0.64
+902022-08-013,933,880-208,402-5.03%-0.74

One volatility unit for this series is 6.82%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.182-0.0212022-05-02: 0.1067 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.0837 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0401 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0183 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0678 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.1624 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.0012 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.0494 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.1067+0.107not publishednot published
−142022-05-160.0837+0.084not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0401+0.040not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0401+0.040not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0183+0.018not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0678+0.068not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.1624+0.162not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.0012-0.001not publishednot published
+902022-08-290.0494+0.049not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.103-0.2062022-05-02: -0.0729 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0221 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.0110 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0398 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0615 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0730 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.1038 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1760 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.0729-0.073not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0221-0.022not publishednot published
−72022-05-230.0110+0.011not publishednot published
−32022-05-230.0110+0.011not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0398+0.040not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0615+0.062not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0730+0.073not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.1038-0.104not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1760-0.176not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902.1581.8262022-05-02: 1.858 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.890 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.869 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.862 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.933 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.035 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.126 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.933 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.941 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.858-0.004-0.21%-0.11
−142022-05-161.890+0.028+1.50%+0.77
−72022-05-231.869+0.007+0.38%+0.19
−32022-05-231.869+0.007+0.38%+0.19
−12022-05-30same print as T01.8620.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.8620.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.8620.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.8620.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.933+0.071+3.81%+1.95
+142022-06-132.035+0.173+9.29%+4.74
+302022-06-272.126+0.264+14.18%+7.24
+602022-07-251.933+0.071+3.81%+1.95
+902022-08-291.941+0.079+4.24%+2.17

One volatility unit for this series is 1.96%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+902.4512.0092022-05-02: 2.107 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 2.205 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 2.267 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 2.277 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 2.356 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.408 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.400 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 2.184 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 2.052 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-022.107-0.170-7.47%-6.05
−142022-05-162.205-0.072-3.16%-2.56
−72022-05-232.267-0.010-0.44%-0.36
−32022-05-232.267-0.010-0.44%-0.36
−12022-05-30same print as T02.2770.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T02.2770.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T02.2770.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T02.2770.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-062.356+0.079+3.47%+2.81
+142022-06-132.408+0.131+5.75%+4.67
+302022-06-272.400+0.123+5.40%+4.38
+602022-07-252.184-0.093-4.08%-3.31
+902022-08-292.052-0.225-9.88%-8.01

One volatility unit for this series is 1.23%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3161.0482022-05-02: 1.074 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.100 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.077 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.135 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.217 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.290 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.135 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.141 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.074-0.003-0.30%-0.10
−142022-05-161.100+0.023+2.10%+0.72
−72022-05-231.083+0.006+0.52%+0.18
−32022-05-231.083+0.006+0.52%+0.18
−12022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.0770.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.135+0.057+5.32%+1.82
+142022-06-131.217+0.140+12.95%+4.43
+302022-06-271.290+0.213+19.76%+6.76
+602022-07-251.135+0.057+5.32%+1.82
+902022-08-291.141+0.064+5.91%+2.02

One volatility unit for this series is 2.92%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2610.9052022-05-02: 0.9839 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.063 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.113 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.121 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.185 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.227 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.220 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.046 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.9395 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.9839-0.137-12.23%-4.72
−142022-05-161.063-0.058-5.18%-2.00
−72022-05-231.113-0.008-0.72%-0.28
−32022-05-231.113-0.008-0.72%-0.28
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1210.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.185+0.064+5.68%+2.19
+142022-06-131.227+0.106+9.43%+3.64
+302022-06-271.220+0.099+8.85%+3.42
+602022-07-251.046-0.075-6.69%-2.58
+902022-08-290.9395-0.181-16.19%-6.25

One volatility unit for this series is 2.59%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8420.7782022-05-02: 0.7839 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.7901 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.7861 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7847 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7985 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.8182 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.8358 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.7985 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.8000 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.7839-0.001-0.10%-0.12
−142022-05-160.7901+0.005+0.69%+0.81
−72022-05-230.7861+0.001+0.17%+0.20
−32022-05-230.7861+0.001+0.17%+0.20
−12022-05-30same print as T00.78470.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.78470.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.78470.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.78470.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7985+0.014+1.75%+2.06
+142022-06-130.8182+0.033+4.27%+5.03
+302022-06-270.8358+0.051+6.51%+7.67
+602022-07-250.7985+0.014+1.75%+2.06
+902022-08-290.8000+0.015+1.95%+2.30

One volatility unit for this series is 0.85%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1901.1042022-05-02: 1.123 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.142 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.154 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.156 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.171 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.181 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.180 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.138 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.113 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.123-0.033-2.85%-6.84
−142022-05-161.142-0.014-1.21%-2.90
−72022-05-231.154-0.002-0.17%-0.40
−32022-05-231.154-0.002-0.17%-0.40
−12022-05-30same print as T01.1560.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.1560.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.1560.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.1560.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.171+0.015+1.32%+3.18
+142022-06-131.181+0.025+2.19%+5.27
+302022-06-271.180+0.024+2.06%+4.95
+602022-07-251.138-0.018-1.56%-3.74
+902022-08-291.113-0.044-3.77%-9.06

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9091.3534.482022-04-29: 85.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 74.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 47.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 42.22 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 55.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 60.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 55.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 67.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 49.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 39.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 60.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2985.85+30.052+53.86%+5.76
−142022-05-1874.63+18.838+33.76%+3.61
−72022-05-2554.28-1.518-2.72%-0.29
−32022-05-2747.73-8.062-14.45%-1.55
−12022-05-3142.22-13.578-24.34%-2.60
T02022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T055.800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0360.04+4.248+7.61%+0.81
+72022-06-0855.39-0.406-0.73%-0.08
+142022-06-1567.36+11.562+20.72%+2.22
+302022-07-0149.88-5.914-10.60%-1.13
+602022-07-2939.98-15.812-28.34%-3.03
+902022-08-3060.97+5.178+9.28%+0.99

One volatility unit for this series is 9.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only
45.42–56.58 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only
0–19.26 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-07) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
126.0 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
4,323,815 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+4.38% from the level at T0 = +0.64 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
1.290 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+19.76% from the level at T0 = +6.76 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
2.126 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+14.18% from the level at T0 = +7.24 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Greece, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'greece'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +5.7%, which is 2.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18466
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.9750736714071735
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.683571970203839
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.193850632410942
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06370999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.683571970203839
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.193850632410942
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18466
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.9750736714071735
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.683571970203839
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.193850632410942
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06370999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.683571970203839
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.193850632410942

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint cb5c8aa4c3518ddde648c36584aa6301780e375edf59dc2e067081bea24d68a3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +8.8%, which is 3.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2201400000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.83014589713633
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.848744368615915
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.415602640540603
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09919000000000011
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.848744368615915
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.415602640540603
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2201400000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.83014589713633
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.848744368615915
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.415602640540603
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09919000000000011
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.848744368615915
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.415602640540603

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 26a89873357311d9122bf6032b58315ea53ebfa9539bb2d8ea0b9dcbba9fbec6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved -16.2%, which is 6.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9395
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.06668847242862645
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -16.187162674517158
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.248221586108399
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1814500000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -16.187162674517158
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.248221586108399
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9395
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.06668847242862645
    t0_value
    1.1209500000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -16.187162674517158
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.248221586108399
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1814500000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -16.187162674517158
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.590683197040562
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.248221586108399

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29c38e39eaf2cf0168b6844375f7b9f99124cf38b6d12e9824e8da8c8d3d2ac0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +3.5%, which is 2.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.356
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.9750813009108965
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.469477382520849
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.8135847606830358
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999974
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.469477382520849
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.8135847606830358
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.356
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.9750813009108965
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.469477382520849
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.8135847606830358
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999974
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.469477382520849
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.8135847606830358

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d9a6cab2b32c74f51dbe11f9534b8c96f93ecc937961e1e824ad3ccd2d510a69 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +5.4%, which is 4.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.4
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.830250929479929
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.401844532279305
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.380644627392581
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.12299999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.401844532279305
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.380644627392581
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.4
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.830250929479929
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.401844532279305
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.380644627392581
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.12299999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.401844532279305
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.380644627392581

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 337c7bf3f6c4fe958617f8e18ea53fc3171e20decac7ab318abcd2a3d6437d67 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -9.9%, which is 8.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.052
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.06663659443395305
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -9.88142292490119
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -8.01337431840108
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2250000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.88142292490119
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    change_in_volatility_units
    -8.01337431840108
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.052
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.06663659443395305
    t0_value
    2.277
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -9.88142292490119
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -8.01337431840108
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2250000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.88142292490119
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2331163542692016
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -8.01337431840108

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d5219725fecdd9faecd9cf29156e967b7e8944a120fce32b35263d81e7d16bd2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component petrol price moved +1.3%, which is 3.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17134
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.975112817156183
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.3226071536698456
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.1805794963487433
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015290000000000248
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3226071536698456
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.1805794963487433
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17134
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    5.975112817156183
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.3226071536698456
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.1805794963487433
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015290000000000248
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3226071536698456
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.1805794963487433

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 85f1434f743505c8a5ecace4be683f996d3f8b9f4838e8e95879325bcb865810 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component petrol price moved +2.1%, which is 5.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17986
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.830688261719792
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.059599498291606
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.95288409470652
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02381000000000011
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.059599498291606
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.95288409470652
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.17986
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    6.830688261719792
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.059599498291606
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.95288409470652
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02381000000000011
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.059599498291606
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.95288409470652

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4e45acf61904a3a06bd8ba2865d66e967a8a083274e1f4a21fdc9084703ee540 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component petrol price moved -3.8%, which is 9.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1125
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.0664204277050585
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.767138099563147
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -9.059139114845307
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.043549999999999756
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.767138099563147
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    change_in_volatility_units
    -9.059139114845307
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1125
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.0664204277050585
    t0_value
    1.1560499999999998
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.767138099563147
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -9.059139114845307
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.043549999999999756
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.767138099563147
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.41583842038476904
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -9.059139114845307

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 96f1948e0604661bde09187f0f94ede3b90b0c53db54d3b2eaba145fa6c03f7a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +5.3%, which is 1.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1345399999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.5733434567010528
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.315238378137519
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8178046726962682
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05725999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.315238378137519
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8178046726962682
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.1345399999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.5733434567010528
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.315238378137519
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8178046726962682
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05725999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.315238378137519
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8178046726962682

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b7298d9f913e7b1611656c15ab7c7ce91462b7103cb941a6230e7492b48c76b2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +19.8%, which is 6.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2901900000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3788997410198993
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.76366404277441
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.759147622489759
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21291000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.76366404277441
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.759147622489759
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2901900000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3788997410198993
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.76366404277441
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.759147622489759
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21291000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.76366404277441
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.759147622489759

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 562a99984874ae2210cb6aaa743400b663e7374d70d0533084133dfdd46242cc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +5.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.14099
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481641315089979
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.913968513292731
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0225696070115156
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06370999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.913968513292731
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0225696070115156
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.14099
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481641315089979
    t0_value
    1.07728
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.913968513292731
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.0225696070115156
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06370999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.913968513292731
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.9239876307797497
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.0225696070115156

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 71fbadb466c235df03b6854f77ca10a6243f50a15bbdadcde60cb61a5e32c84c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +3.8%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.5733171698033449
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.813104189044036
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9471135047405321
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07099999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.813104189044036
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9471135047405321
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.5733171698033449
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.813104189044036
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9471135047405321
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07099999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.813104189044036
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9471135047405321

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ffa4d41823c96a9a427c8955badb08b72a1f99c5b7887d355bd68326f73dc1ee · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +14.2%, which is 7.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.126
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3787985134031517
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    14.178302900107399
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.239971341570428
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2639999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.178302900107399
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.239971341570428
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.126
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3787985134031517
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    14.178302900107399
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.239971341570428
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2639999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.178302900107399
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.239971341570428

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 07dd8c77b85ae42a8be708e8cc78dedf23ee66115e76fe9f1580d666421358a0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +4.2%, which is 2.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.941
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481557747193992
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.242749731471534
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.166506575697212
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.242749731471534
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.166506575697212
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.941
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481557747193992
    t0_value
    1.862
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.242749731471534
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.166506575697212
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.242749731471534
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9583368816252762
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.166506575697212

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bc3274d54f5077059712e891c15b8cb7b3796f8ee6ebbd96369ac17abffb129d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component diesel price moved +1.8%, which is 2.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7984600000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.573207644493814
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.7509430115200435
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.062769716953788
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.013740000000000085
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.7509430115200435
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.062769716953788
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.7984600000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.573207644493814
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.7509430115200435
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.062769716953788
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.013740000000000085
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.7509430115200435
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.062769716953788

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3eeb63743108005fb8766664a1b18e64a9f2a9f8991f8284d2b5c4e2a77ab562 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component diesel price moved +6.5%, which is 7.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8358099999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3783767441433636
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.51060250790089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.670080410419804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05108999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.51060250790089
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.670080410419804
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8358099999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    2.3783767441433636
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.51060250790089
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.670080410419804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05108999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.51060250790089
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.670080410419804

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ade8ee7d9c3fb7b5f584d2146bedfc8d891131a54c44376e092c7d6ca2aae746 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Greece's tax-component diesel price moved +1.9%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.80001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481209538500847
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.9484656947701124
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2954693575126117
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015290000000000026
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.9484656947701124
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2954693575126117
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.80001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    0.6481209538500847
    t0_value
    0.78472
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.9484656947701124
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2954693575126117
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015290000000000026
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.9484656947701124
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8488310629776757
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2954693575126117

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2340972e43bc620bf7e5567fe64be8af0396da3dd46257a580903f245fabf187 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by +2.6 c/L (range +0.4–+4.8); it actually moved +9.9 c/L, leaving +7.3 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.0730151457937381
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.09919000000000011
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.026174854206262005
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.004493465612557489
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04785624279996628
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.0730151457937381
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.09919000000000011
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.026174854206262005
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.004493465612557489
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04785624279996628
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 5af894f56f3c8a8097319607f1c227a7063ec07221b4afb835c76311d4186244 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by -0.5 c/L (range -9.7–+8.6); it actually moved -18.1 c/L, leaving -17.6 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.17599530296559315
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1814500000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.005454697034406954
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09673126354867848
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08582186947986277
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.17599530296559315
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1814500000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.005454697034406954
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09673126354867848
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08582186947986277
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint ddd75c59a4f89839b84325a335fbe82f6533cc08fd2a4350cbfbd24471df1215 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +5.1 c/L (range +0.5–+9.7); it actually moved +21.3 c/L, leaving +16.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.16237104057494556
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.21291000000000015
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0505389594250546
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.004552465566576486
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.09652545328353379
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.16237104057494556
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.21291000000000015
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0505389594250546
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.004552465566576486
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.09652545328353379
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint c6fe31669b38afed4581d51ce7697e92954aa435b072bcfa417f06a76fd10745 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +1.4 c/L (range -19.3–+22.2); it actually moved +6.4 c/L, leaving +4.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.049381563705668735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06370999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.014328436294331198
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.19335836662264635
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22201523921131225
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.049381563705668735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06370999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.014328436294331198
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.19335836662264635
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.22201523921131225
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 422b8bb219af1aca008e35994b8635bdbea0de0d4b10318c3da6040ad045d3e6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (41%–59%) for Greece in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    59.1362490187578
    value_min_pct
    41.4786703628058
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    59.1362490187578
    value_min_pct
    41.4786703628058
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint bb645f6de79abe592f4245da39692765d8215bc5ddd665a21339afed87e7fe29 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was moderate (0%–26%) for Greece in 2022-06. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    25.578088447405
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    25.578088447405
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint db5cf092d9e3d0b0f83e502ddb9c03adb7837b8d4116872b178bd8c897f8e5c7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Greece's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were -15.4% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    -15.426348493349854
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1644599
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1944576.0833333333
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    -15.426348493349854
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1644599
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1944576.0833333333
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint cf77f5cf5a719526c6b150a590b4fcd663bc45f166dd66eeb094300f6f7f02e4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Greece's oil stocks stood 2.4% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 126.0 days of cover (as published).

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    126
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -9.243476908178266
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4142282
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4244199.916666667
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -2.4013458052822245
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -2.4013458052822245
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -2.4
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    126
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -9.243476908178266
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4142282
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4244199.916666667
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -2.4013458052822245
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint c1655dae0b08ae01dd4a729cc4f5f4871eead7f01d18bb0928cd47feac1d6ea5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Greece around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (41–59%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about GreeceUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    41–59%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    41–59%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint fcca7f2a6229712d3941dc99fc30331d6669a55b8c99197e0e2aa03bf5cde34d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Greece: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.