Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2026, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 262 kt: 92% from its own refineries; tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 95% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan4.8 kt (est. 2%)Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)Azerbaijan1.2 kt (est. <1%)Iraq1.1 kt (est. <1%)United States1.0 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.9 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.6 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins1.2 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported233 kt (89%)Bulgaria: crude not from imports7.9 kt (3%)Serbia: no crude data7.0 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.5 kt (<1%)Origin not reported: crude unknown0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)241 kt (92%)Romania7.9 kt (3%)Serbia7.0 kt (3%)Greece6.8 kt (3%)Imports, origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply262 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Romania
- Serbia
- Greece
- Other (1)
- Kazakhstan4.8 kt (est. 2%)
- Libya1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Azerbaijan1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq1.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States1.0 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins1.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported233 kt (89%)
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports7.9 kt (3%)
- Serbia: no crude data7.0 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.5 kt (<1%)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jun 2026)
1.2 thousand tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported1.2 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Greece0.7 kt (est. 63%)
- Romania0.4 kt (est. 37%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 240,567 | 91.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 7,922 | 3.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Serbia | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 7,026 | 2.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 6,750 | 2.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 232,656 | 96.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Bulgaria: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 7,911 | 3.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Serbia: no crude data | Serbia | 7,026 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 3,147 | 39.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Romania | 2,391 | 30.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 1,688 | 25.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 1,229 | 15.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 1,137 | 16.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Greece | 983 | 14.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Greece | 978 | 14.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 932 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 739 | 10.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Romania | 453 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 430 | 5.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 272 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Greece | 150 | 2.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 143 | 2.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Origin not reported: crude unknown | Imports, origin not reported | 69 | 100.0% | UnknownThe statistics did not say which country these imports came from. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-06 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2026-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-06 (latest month all EU member states reported). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-04 to 2026-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (232,656 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Bulgaria: crude not from imports (7,911 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Serbia: no crude data (7,026 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (2,534 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Origin not reported: crude unknown (69 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Imports, origin not reported (69 t): The statistics did not say which country these imports came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.