Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In July 2026, Bulgaria's road diesel supply was 285 kt: 97% from its own refineries; tracing one step back, no single crude origin reaches 5% of it, and 97% cannot be traced.
Country
Kazakhstan3.2 kt (est. 1%)Azerbaijan0.9 kt (est. <1%)Libya0.7 kt (est. <1%)Iraq0.6 kt (est. <1%)United States0.6 kt (est. <1%)Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)Canada0.4 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.6 kt (est. <1%)Bulgaria: crude origin not reported275 kt (97%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria (own refineries)276 kt (97%)Romania5.6 kt (2%)Greece3.4 kt (1%)Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria: road diesel supply285 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Bulgaria (own refineries)
- Romania
- Greece
- Belgium
- Kazakhstan3.2 kt (est. 1%)
- Azerbaijan0.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Libya0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Iraq0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- United States0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Canada0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported275 kt (97%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports2.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jul 2026)
730 tonnes
est. <1% of Bulgaria's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.7 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Greece0.4 kt (est. 61%)
- Romania0.3 kt (est. 39%)
- Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria (own refineries) | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 275,873 | 96.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Romania | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 5,581 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Greece | Bulgaria: road diesel supply | 3,364 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 275,421 | 99.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 2,431 | 43.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Romania | 1,485 | 26.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 871 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Greece | 779 | 23.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Greece | 576 | 17.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Greece | 551 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 463 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Bulgaria (own refineries) | 452 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Libya | Greece | 444 | 13.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 415 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada | Romania | 353 | 6.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Romania | 286 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 155 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 136 | 4.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 9 | 40.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 6 | 24.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 4 | 15.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 3 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 1 | 2.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Canada | Belgium | 0 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Belgium | 0 | 1.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Bulgaria split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2026-05 to 2026-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 0 | 0.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-07 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-07 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Bulgaria’s supply of road diesel in 2026-07, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2026-07 (latest month that can be drawn, the month its country page shows). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-05 to 2026-07.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Bulgaria: crude origin not reported (275,421 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (2,072 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (1 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.