Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2026, Lithuania's road diesel supply was 307 kt: 94% from its own refineries; tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (40%), Saudi Arabia (32%) and the United States (18%), and 3% cannot be traced.
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania (own refineries)
- Finland
- Latvia
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jun 2026)
121.3 thousand tonnes
est. 40% of Lithuania's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported121 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Refined in
- Lithuania (own refineries)111 kt (est. 92%)
- Finland10 kt (est. 8%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania (own refineries) | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 289,200 | 94.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 14,900 | 4.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Latvia | Lithuania: road diesel supply | 2,800 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania (own refineries) | 111,181 | 38.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania (own refineries) | 96,827 | 33.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania (own refineries) | 52,364 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania (own refineries) | 22,746 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Lithuania split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 10,090 | 67.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania (own refineries) | 6,082 | 2.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Latvia | 2,800 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States | Finland | 1,950 | 13.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 1,467 | 9.8% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Finland | 876 | 5.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Canada | Finland | 517 | 3.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Lithuania split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Lithuania’s supply of road diesel in 2026-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-06 (latest month all EU member states reported). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-04 to 2026-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (6,082 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (2,800 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.