Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)

Dati: 05/02/2023 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 25/09/2026 14:07 UTCReviżjoni 2

Dokumenti tas-sors (2)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Belġju, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 260; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	76.41	-2.440	-3.09%	-0.68
−14	2023-01-20	86.96	+8.110	+10.29%	+2.27
−7	2023-01-27	85.36	+6.510	+8.26%	+1.82
−3	2023-02-02	80.57	+1.720	+2.18%	+0.48
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	80.48	+1.630	+2.07%	+0.46
+3	2023-02-08	84.17	+5.320	+6.75%	+1.49
+7	2023-02-10	85.46	+6.610	+8.38%	+1.85
+14	2023-02-17	81.97	+3.120	+3.96%	+0.87
+30	2023-03-06	85.86	+7.010	+8.89%	+1.96
+60	2023-04-06	86.56	+7.710	+9.78%	+2.16
+90	2023-05-05	75.85	-3.000	-3.80%	-0.84

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 757). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	2,621,400	+265,100	+11.25%	+0.48
−14	2023-01-01	2,621,400	+265,100	+11.25%	+0.48
−7	2023-01-01	2,621,400	+265,100	+11.25%	+0.48
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,356,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	2,707,300	+351,000	+14.90%	+0.63
+60	2023-04-01	2,374,800	+18,500	+0.79%	+0.03
+90	2023-05-01	2,466,100	+109,800	+4.66%	+0.20

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 23.67%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.9564	-0.033	-3.34%	-0.12
−14	2023-01-16	0.9529	-0.037	-3.70%	-0.13
−7	2023-01-23	0.9777	-0.012	-1.19%	-0.04
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.9824	-0.007	-0.71%	-0.03
+3	2023-02-06	0.9824	-0.007	-0.71%	-0.03
+7	2023-02-06	0.9824	-0.007	-0.71%	-0.03
+14	2023-02-13	0.9862	-0.003	-0.33%	-0.01
+30	2023-03-06	1.004	+0.014	+1.45%	+0.05
+60	2023-04-03	0.9674	-0.022	-2.24%	-0.08
+90	2023-05-01	1.008	+0.018	+1.85%	+0.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 28.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.8001	-0.028	-3.40%	-0.12
−14	2023-01-16	0.8011	-0.027	-3.28%	-0.12
−7	2023-01-23	0.8219	-0.006	-0.77%	-0.03
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8275	-0.001	-0.09%	-0.00
+3	2023-02-06	0.8275	-0.001	-0.09%	-0.00
+7	2023-02-06	0.8275	-0.001	-0.09%	-0.00
+14	2023-02-13	0.8260	-0.002	-0.27%	-0.01
+30	2023-03-06	0.8444	+0.016	+1.95%	+0.07
+60	2023-04-03	0.8634	+0.035	+4.25%	+0.16
+90	2023-05-01	0.8855	+0.057	+6.91%	+0.25

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.22%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	1.050	-0.044	-4.00%	-7.81
−14	2023-01-20	1.083	-0.011	-1.01%	-1.98
−7	2023-01-27	1.087	-0.007	-0.66%	-1.29
−3	2023-02-02	1.099	+0.005	+0.47%	+0.91
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.078	-0.016	-1.47%	-2.88
+3	2023-02-08	1.074	-0.020	-1.85%	-3.61
+7	2023-02-10	1.069	-0.025	-2.26%	-4.41
+14	2023-02-17	1.063	-0.031	-2.85%	-5.57
+30	2023-03-07	1.067	-0.027	-2.49%	-4.86
+60	2023-04-06	1.092	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.39
+90	2023-05-05	1.101	+0.008	+0.70%	+1.38

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 772). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	12.42–28.95	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	12.42–28.95	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	12.42–28.95	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	7.949–17.12	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	7.271–15.47	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	5.730–15.76	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	0–4.099	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	0–4.099	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	0–4.099	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	2.029–9.478	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	3.807–7.316	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	1.539–23.37	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ %
−30	2023-01-01	108.0	0.00%
−14	2023-01-01	108.0	0.00%
−7	2023-01-01	108.0	0.00%
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	108.0	0.00%
+30	2023-03-01	108.0	0.00%
+60	2023-04-01	108.0	0.00%
+90	2023-05-01	108.0	0.00%

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.16%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	7,159,700	-243,800	-3.29%	-1.15
−14	2023-01-01	7,159,700	-243,800	-3.29%	-1.15
−7	2023-01-01	7,159,700	-243,800	-3.29%	-1.15
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,403,500	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	7,210,100	-193,400	-2.61%	-0.91
+60	2023-04-01	7,545,500	+142,000	+1.92%	+0.67
+90	2023-05-01	7,407,800	+4,300	+0.06%	+0.02

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.88%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.0401	+0.040	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-16	0.0092	+0.009	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0007	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0147	-0.015	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0147	-0.015	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0147	-0.015	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0807	-0.081	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-06	-0.1061	-0.106	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-03	-0.1706	-0.171	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	-0.2097	-0.210	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	-0.0061	-0.006	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-16	-0.0286	-0.029	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0237	-0.024	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0023	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0023	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0023	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0237	-0.024	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-06	-0.0425	-0.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-03	-0.0661	-0.066	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	-0.0711	-0.071	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.757	+0.009	+0.49%	+0.18
−14	2023-01-16	1.715	-0.033	-1.90%	-0.69
−7	2023-01-23	1.733	-0.015	-0.86%	-0.31
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.748	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.748	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.748	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.722	-0.026	-1.50%	-0.55
+3	2023-02-06	1.722	-0.026	-1.50%	-0.55
+7	2023-02-06	1.722	-0.026	-1.50%	-0.55
+14	2023-02-13	1.690	-0.058	-3.32%	-1.21
+30	2023-03-06	1.706	-0.042	-2.40%	-0.87
+60	2023-04-03	1.690	-0.058	-3.33%	-1.21
+90	2023-05-01	1.692	-0.057	-3.24%	-1.18

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.75%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.687	-0.041	-2.39%	-0.69
−14	2023-01-16	1.661	-0.067	-3.90%	-1.13
−7	2023-01-23	1.692	-0.036	-2.11%	-0.61
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.728	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.728	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.728	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.725	-0.004	-0.21%	-0.06
+3	2023-02-06	1.725	-0.004	-0.21%	-0.06
+7	2023-02-06	1.725	-0.004	-0.21%	-0.06
+14	2023-02-13	1.697	-0.031	-1.81%	-0.52
+30	2023-03-06	1.697	-0.032	-1.84%	-0.53
+60	2023-04-03	1.691	-0.037	-2.16%	-0.62
+90	2023-05-01	1.712	-0.017	-0.97%	-0.28

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.46%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.9965	+0.007	+0.71%	+0.16
−14	2023-01-16	0.9621	-0.027	-2.77%	-0.61
−7	2023-01-23	0.9770	-0.012	-1.26%	-0.28
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9895	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.9678	-0.022	-2.20%	-0.49
+3	2023-02-06	0.9678	-0.022	-2.20%	-0.49
+7	2023-02-06	0.9678	-0.022	-2.20%	-0.49
+14	2023-02-13	0.9055	-0.084	-8.48%	-1.88
+30	2023-03-06	0.8978	-0.092	-9.27%	-2.05
+60	2023-04-03	0.7968	-0.193	-19.47%	-4.32
+90	2023-05-01	0.7981	-0.191	-19.34%	-4.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.7941	-0.034	-4.13%	-0.52
−14	2023-01-16	0.7725	-0.056	-6.73%	-0.84
−7	2023-01-23	0.7982	-0.030	-3.63%	-0.46
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8283	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8252	-0.003	-0.37%	-0.05
+3	2023-02-06	0.8252	-0.003	-0.37%	-0.05
+7	2023-02-06	0.8252	-0.003	-0.37%	-0.05
+14	2023-02-13	0.8023	-0.026	-3.13%	-0.39
+30	2023-03-06	0.8019	-0.026	-3.18%	-0.40
+60	2023-04-03	0.7974	-0.031	-3.73%	-0.47
+90	2023-05-01	0.8144	-0.014	-1.67%	-0.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 7.97%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.7605	+0.001	+0.19%	+0.10
−14	2023-01-16	0.7532	-0.006	-0.76%	-0.41
−7	2023-01-23	0.7564	-0.003	-0.34%	-0.18
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.7544	-0.005	-0.60%	-0.32
+3	2023-02-06	0.7544	-0.005	-0.60%	-0.32
+7	2023-02-06	0.7544	-0.005	-0.60%	-0.32
+14	2023-02-13	0.7849	+0.026	+3.41%	+1.83
+30	2023-03-06	0.8087	+0.050	+6.55%	+3.51
+60	2023-04-03	0.8935	+0.135	+17.73%	+9.50
+90	2023-05-01	0.8938	+0.135	+17.76%	+9.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.87%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.8930	-0.007	-0.80%	-0.41
−14	2023-01-16	0.8884	-0.012	-1.30%	-0.66
−7	2023-01-23	0.8938	-0.006	-0.70%	-0.36
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8995	-0.001	-0.07%	-0.04
+3	2023-02-06	0.8995	-0.001	-0.07%	-0.04
+7	2023-02-06	0.8995	-0.001	-0.07%	-0.04
+14	2023-02-13	0.8947	-0.005	-0.61%	-0.31
+30	2023-03-06	0.8946	-0.006	-0.62%	-0.31
+60	2023-04-03	0.8936	-0.006	-0.72%	-0.37
+90	2023-05-01	0.8972	-0.003	-0.32%	-0.16

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.96%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	52.91	+13.654	+34.78%	+3.54
−14	2023-01-20	60.21	+20.954	+53.38%	+5.43
−7	2023-01-27	51.77	+12.516	+31.88%	+3.24
−3	2023-02-02	42.91	+3.656	+9.31%	+0.95
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	37.12	-2.134	-5.44%	-0.55
+3	2023-02-08	38.01	-1.246	-3.17%	-0.32
+7	2023-02-10	35.25	-4.006	-10.21%	-1.04
+14	2023-02-17	32.10	-7.152	-18.22%	-1.85
+30	2023-03-06	36.23	-3.020	-7.69%	-0.78
+60	2023-04-06	26.92	-12.330	-31.41%	-3.19
+90	2023-05-05	21.80	-17.454	-44.46%	-4.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.83%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	23.63	-0.710	-2.92%	-0.02
−14	2023-01-20	27.78	+3.440	+14.13%	+0.08
−7	2023-01-27	27.70	+3.360	+13.80%	+0.08
−3	2023-02-02	26.70	+2.354	+9.67%	+0.05
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	25.32	+0.974	+4.00%	+0.02
+3	2023-02-08	25.07	+0.728	+2.99%	+0.02
+7	2023-02-10	25.04	+0.698	+2.87%	+0.02
+14	2023-02-17	22.90	-1.440	-5.92%	-0.03
+30	2023-03-06	25.19	+0.844	+3.47%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-06	33.98	+9.636	+39.58%	+0.22
+90	2023-05-05	27.39	+3.042	+12.50%	+0.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	57.61	+28.228	+96.07%	+0.54
−14	2023-01-20	77.51	+48.128	+163.79%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-27	73.74	+44.352	+150.94%	+0.85
−3	2023-02-02	35.06	+5.672	+19.30%	+0.11
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	32.50	+3.116	+10.60%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-08	37.04	+7.658	+26.06%	+0.15
+7	2023-02-10	31.97	+2.588	+8.81%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-17	24.75	-4.632	-15.76%	-0.09
+30	2023-03-06	37.16	+7.774	+26.46%	+0.15
+60	2023-04-06	19.15	-10.230	-34.81%	-0.20
+90	2023-05-05	14.45	-14.934	-50.82%	-0.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/02/2023. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	7.949–17.12 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	2.029–9.478 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	108.0 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)0.00% mil-livell ta’ T0 = 0.00 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	85.86 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)+8.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.96 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	7,210,100 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)-2.61% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.91 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.8978 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-9.27% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.05 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.706 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-2.40% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.87 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (29/01/2023 – 07/03/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Belġju, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'belgium'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-0.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8252200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.23027080191477892
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.3658315725928134
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.04590727803286994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.003029999999999977
change_pct_from_t0
-0.3658315725928134
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
change_in_volatility_units
-0.04590727803286994
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8252200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.23027080191477892
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.3658315725928134
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.04590727803286994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.003029999999999977
change_pct_from_t0
-0.3658315725928134
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.04590727803286994
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0fdad11994efafc5c8fa94f44db375d1b98383ffe3b765d6d8cc1706c43c0fff · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-3.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80191
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.48198251269896897
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.1801992152128014
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.39907514963227875
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02634000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
-3.1801992152128014
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
change_in_volatility_units
-0.39907514963227875
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80191
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.48198251269896897
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.1801992152128014
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.39907514963227875
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02634000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
-3.1801992152128014
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.39907514963227875
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ab0270a1d86fa148aaad12b8bb3bb872fc0db3da885242494dda268601b9d323 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8144199999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.3468939883784976
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.6697856927256407
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.20953717993221171
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01383000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
-1.6697856927256407
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
change_in_volatility_units
-0.20953717993221171
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8144199999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.3468939883784976
t0_value
0.82825
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.6697856927256407
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.20953717993221171
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01383000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
-1.6697856927256407
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
7.968923191892915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.20953717993221171
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4d2d54dfd6c11faf9b5ee24313bb5f7c3bf8b342d4e3a0e87c4520b0ea91de4e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.72471
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.17956404125626135
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.21233756465593698
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.061302633830425925
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.003670000000000284
change_pct_from_t0
-0.21233756465593698
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
change_in_volatility_units
-0.061302633830425925
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.72471
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.17956404125626135
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.21233756465593698
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.061302633830425925
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.003670000000000284
change_pct_from_t0
-0.21233756465593698
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.061302633830425925
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 02ad22da27e564800f19cc30b38f96792b7f3a0e72abaf991a894807d84a61c2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6965000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.4572610287360192
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.844501787801301
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5325144322925981
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.03188000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
-1.844501787801301
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5325144322925981
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6965000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.4572610287360192
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.844501787801301
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5325144322925981
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.03188000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
-1.844501787801301
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5325144322925981
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità dc5656c682bd54e8fcb4db5b63f134627c80c75b31751fbae263337a1aebf974 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.71164
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.3082240776391196
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.9685370115368263
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.2796201880984367
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0167400000000002
change_pct_from_t0
-0.9685370115368263
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
change_in_volatility_units
-0.2796201880984367
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.71164
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.3082240776391196
t0_value
1.7283800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.9685370115368263
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.2796201880984367
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0167400000000002
change_pct_from_t0
-0.9685370115368263
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.4637592447218624
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.2796201880984367
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2a804c72c37f8f1c7ae38bf183a7a70c574a01315c33f8ac22433e0cd60568b0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.96775
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.9311431077677218
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.1951145562776104
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.48673140821432453
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.021720000000000073
change_pct_from_t0
-2.1951145562776104
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
change_in_volatility_units
-0.48673140821432453
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.96775
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.9311431077677218
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.1951145562776104
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.48673140821432453
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.021720000000000073
change_pct_from_t0
-2.1951145562776104
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.48673140821432453
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 57d73d651639c0803b45cf3429a01cca3bf86fe0656f6d88350006bad0c45191 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-9.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.89778
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.6552071079338904
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-9.266577056403937
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.0547146785990464
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09169000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
-9.266577056403937
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
change_in_volatility_units
-2.0547146785990464
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.89778
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.6552071079338904
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-9.266577056403937
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.0547146785990464
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09169000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
-9.266577056403937
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.0547146785990464
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 60fb03a917087040d905be94398cf2fc3f2ba3e616a167b822f1a584e3b04b3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-19.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7980900000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.6868198016106852
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-19.341667761528896
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.288704277350695
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.19138
change_pct_from_t0
-19.341667761528896
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
change_in_volatility_units
-4.288704277350695
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7980900000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.6868198016106852
t0_value
0.9894700000000001
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-19.341667761528896
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.288704277350695
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.19138
change_pct_from_t0
-19.341667761528896
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.509909406362012
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.288704277350695
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 535ac452a64b97b41fc5af466c94183ca122c32102d669b7f4df27464a523342 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7221700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.9311137621405625
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-1.5030455546340964
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5468323510053612
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02627999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
-1.5030455546340964
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5468323510053612
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7221700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.9311137621405625
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-1.5030455546340964
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5468323510053612
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02627999999999986
change_pct_from_t0
-1.5030455546340964
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5468323510053612
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8f245618e5966a0474a9dd6b21f0c78a8d6aef5d6c44de1d2848d909d9bc5a9a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7064700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.065380235510494
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.4009837284451887
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8735168224963902
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.041979999999999906
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4009837284451887
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8735168224963902
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7064700000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.065380235510494
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.4009837284451887
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8735168224963902
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.041979999999999906
change_pct_from_t0
-2.4009837284451887
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8735168224963902
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c0562088d1ca8b1cdb92c7c1e8c2ae684ad175ba42308ceb9234551f65f37207 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-3.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.69188
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.190153983693125
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.235437101432698
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.1771044937737236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05657000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-3.235437101432698
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
change_in_volatility_units
-1.1771044937737236
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.69188
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-1.190153983693125
t0_value
1.74845
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.235437101432698
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.1771044937737236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05657000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-3.235437101432698
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.748640514539273
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.1771044937737236
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4aae7b69820af762cb1f318ff164a864496f2e9a61d0dc2bb342cdbc7dca9d9d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) b’+1.6 c/l (firxa +0.3–+3.0); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-1.4 c/l, u jibqa’ -3.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.02999000579715938
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.013560000000000016
expected_eur_per_litre
0.016430005797159364
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.0026303008174259537
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.030229710776893126
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.02999000579715938
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.013560000000000016
expected_eur_per_litre
0.016430005797159364
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.0026303008174259537
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.030229710776893126
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 263e2333e7eba60cab7b1479c49c05486adb0f83058d555ab686f9d8bac50fdc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) b’+5.7 c/l (firxa -1.8–+13.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-1.4 c/l, u jibqa’ -7.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07105420471631145
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.01383000000000012
expected_eur_per_litre
0.05722420471631133
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01791506107224685
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.13236347050487043
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07105420471631145
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.01383000000000012
expected_eur_per_litre
0.05722420471631133
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01791506107224685
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.13236347050487043
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e3d098b7ec5be0599238b78945df084b02b492445a3de73075c7dcdb8ef57b2e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) b’+1.0 c/l (firxa -1.3–+3.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-11.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -12.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1202987774263884
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.10999000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.010308777426388378
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01283647622906929
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.033454031081845956
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1202987774263884
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.10999000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.010308777426388378
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01283647622906929
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.033454031081845956
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2ca2390d2affd91245557d3447741474d16dfbcd7288e5816728bd701bbed1e4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) b’+1.8 c/l (firxa -8.7–+12.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-19.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -21.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, naqas b’27.3 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.20969414789045696
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.19138
expected_eur_per_litre
0.018314147890456964
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0866272124987963
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12325550827971113
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.20969414789045696
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.19138
expected_eur_per_litre
0.018314147890456964
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0866272124987963
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12325550827971113
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b6ee1e8cfe45cb850b84ff08f1621866e9027c0f9b52a96cc40019b7cfaebb9d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Belġju, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (7%–19%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
18.6050368550369
value_min_pct
7.11507985257985
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
18.6050368550369
value_min_pct
7.11507985257985
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 39cdfcf85d34e280531f57aa46faec2bf5de5137c8ea554ca0d2e772cf930024 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Belġju, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%–5%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
5.01232045195024
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
5.01232045195024
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 21fa823a462a9deed82a262d7bba6b58efb718f43b6e3fdc7dd5b5afda15197a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Belġju, Frar 2023) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +0.9%.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Belgium
change_pct
0.9046431209652381
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_tonnes
2356300
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
2335175
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Belgium
change_pct
0.9046431209652381
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_tonnes
2356300
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
2335175
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b16f2d0e8186aa7602ebee5e96adfafcb32b1ab0e820d90a0be7c4b8948f2cdb · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2023: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Belġju) kienu 1.1% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 108.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BE
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
days_of_cover
108
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
3.405170607707027
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
7403500
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
7483350
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-1.0670354854443531
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-1.0670354854443531
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-1.1
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BE
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
days_of_cover
108
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
3.405170607707027
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
7403500
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
7483350
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-1.0670354854443531
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a4960dbfc4b3d1f0f5f141991870c8cc15ea2ab754fa29eda7c542d58cbaecaa · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Belġju) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (7–19%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Belgium
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
7–19%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Belgium
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
7–19%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 22c44da0e25665d81793e05e8c483896d9aa937897c98dfadebabc707e032bbd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-3.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Belġju: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Belġju, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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