Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

L-Awstrija, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 274; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 12; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	532,693	-142,049	-21.05%	-1.39
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	674,742	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	674,742	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	674,742	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	674,742	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	674,742	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	509,163	-165,579	-24.54%	-1.63
+3	2026-03-01	509,163	-165,579	-24.54%	-1.63
+7	2026-03-01	509,163	-165,579	-24.54%	-1.63
+14	2026-03-01	509,163	-165,579	-24.54%	-1.63
+30	2026-03-01	509,163	-165,579	-24.54%	-1.63
+60	2026-04-01	673,645	-1,097	-0.16%	-0.01
+90	2026-05-01	628,344	-46,398	-6.88%	-0.46

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 15.10%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7167	-0.029	-3.90%	-0.00
−14	2026-02-09	0.7334	-0.012	-1.67%	-0.00
−7	2026-02-16	0.7370	-0.009	-1.19%	-0.00
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7577	+0.012	+1.58%	+0.00
+7	2026-03-02	0.7577	+0.012	+1.58%	+0.00
+14	2026-03-09	0.8551	+0.109	+14.65%	+0.00
+30	2026-03-30	1.097	+0.351	+47.06%	+0.02
+60	2026-04-27	1.150	+0.404	+54.15%	+0.02
+90	2026-05-25	1.225	+0.479	+64.19%	+0.02

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3,061.65%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6236	-0.020	-3.10%	-1.29
−14	2026-02-09	0.6350	-0.009	-1.33%	-0.55
−7	2026-02-16	0.6376	-0.006	-0.93%	-0.39
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6537	+0.010	+1.57%	+0.65
+7	2026-03-02	0.6537	+0.010	+1.57%	+0.65
+14	2026-03-09	0.7196	+0.076	+11.82%	+4.91
+30	2026-03-30	0.8923	+0.249	+38.64%	+16.06
+60	2026-04-27	0.9118	+0.268	+41.68%	+17.33
+90	2026-05-25	0.9462	+0.303	+47.01%	+19.55

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.41%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	11.63–12.13	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	5.842–6.092	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	5.842–6.092	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	5.842–6.092	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	5.842–6.092	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	5.842–6.092	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–8.836	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–8.836	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–8.836	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–8.836	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–8.836	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0–4.116	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	92.06	+0.766	+0.84%	+1.29
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.29	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.29	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.29	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.29	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.29	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	90.87	-0.428	-0.47%	-0.72
+3	2026-03-01	90.87	-0.428	-0.47%	-0.72
+7	2026-03-01	90.87	-0.428	-0.47%	-0.72
+14	2026-03-01	90.87	-0.428	-0.47%	-0.72
+30	2026-03-01	90.87	-0.428	-0.47%	-0.72
+60	2026-04-01	88.91	-2.380	-2.61%	-4.02
+90	2026-05-01	88.93	-2.365	-2.59%	-3.99

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.65%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.65
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.77
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.77
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.18
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.09
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.83
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.28

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.68%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.65
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.77
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.77
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.18
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.09
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.83
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.28

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	3,076,951	-78,128	-2.48%	-0.78
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,155,079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,155,079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,155,079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,155,079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,155,079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	3,014,238	-140,841	-4.46%	-1.41
+3	2026-03-01	3,014,238	-140,841	-4.46%	-1.41
+7	2026-03-01	3,014,238	-140,841	-4.46%	-1.41
+14	2026-03-01	3,014,238	-140,841	-4.46%	-1.41
+30	2026-03-01	3,014,238	-140,841	-4.46%	-1.41
+60	2026-04-01	3,137,209	-17,870	-0.57%	-0.18
+90	2026-05-01	3,189,993	+34,914	+1.11%	+0.35

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.16%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	-0.0017	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	-0.0017	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	-0.0144	-0.014	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	0.0032	+0.003	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	0.0032	+0.003	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.1841	+0.184	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.1973	+0.197	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.0506	-0.051	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	-0.1588	-0.159	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	-0.0042	-0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	-0.0114	-0.011	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	-0.0198	-0.020	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	-0.0051	-0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	-0.0051	-0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.0898	+0.090	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.0597	+0.060	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.0491	-0.049	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	-0.0326	-0.033	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.509	-0.037	-2.39%	-1.80
−14	2026-02-09	1.529	-0.017	-1.10%	-0.83
−7	2026-02-16	1.518	-0.028	-1.81%	-1.36
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.564	+0.018	+1.16%	+0.88
+7	2026-03-02	1.564	+0.018	+1.16%	+0.88
+14	2026-03-09	1.898	+0.352	+22.77%	+17.12
+30	2026-03-30	2.204	+0.658	+42.56%	+32.01
+60	2026-04-27	1.910	+0.364	+23.54%	+17.71
+90	2026-05-25	1.906	+0.360	+23.29%	+17.51

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.33%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.480	-0.029	-1.92%	-1.73
−14	2026-02-09	1.485	-0.024	-1.59%	-1.43
−7	2026-02-16	1.478	-0.031	-2.05%	-1.85
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.509	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.509	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.509	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.509	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.515	+0.006	+0.40%	+0.36
+7	2026-03-02	1.515	+0.006	+0.40%	+0.36
+14	2026-03-09	1.708	+0.199	+13.19%	+11.90
+30	2026-03-30	1.879	+0.370	+24.52%	+22.12
+60	2026-04-27	1.712	+0.203	+13.45%	+12.14
+90	2026-05-25	1.809	+0.300	+19.88%	+17.94

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.11%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7150	-0.031	-4.13%	-1.93
−14	2026-02-09	0.7317	-0.014	-1.90%	-0.88
−7	2026-02-16	0.7225	-0.023	-3.13%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7459	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7609	+0.015	+2.01%	+0.94
+7	2026-03-02	0.7609	+0.015	+2.01%	+0.94
+14	2026-03-09	1.039	+0.293	+39.33%	+18.32
+30	2026-03-30	1.294	+0.548	+73.52%	+34.25
+60	2026-04-27	1.099	+0.353	+47.37%	+22.07
+90	2026-05-25	1.066	+0.320	+42.90%	+19.99

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.15%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6194	-0.024	-3.76%	-1.94
−14	2026-02-09	0.6236	-0.020	-3.11%	-1.61
−7	2026-02-16	0.6178	-0.026	-4.01%	-2.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6436	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6486	+0.005	+0.78%	+0.40
+7	2026-03-02	0.6486	+0.005	+0.78%	+0.40
+14	2026-03-09	0.8094	+0.166	+25.77%	+13.33
+30	2026-03-30	0.9519	+0.308	+47.91%	+24.78
+60	2026-04-27	0.8628	+0.219	+34.05%	+17.61
+90	2026-05-25	0.9136	+0.270	+41.95%	+21.70

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7940	-0.006	-0.77%	-1.12
−14	2026-02-09	0.7973	-0.003	-0.35%	-0.52
−7	2026-02-16	0.7955	-0.005	-0.58%	-0.85
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8001	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8031	+0.003	+0.37%	+0.55
+7	2026-03-02	0.8031	+0.003	+0.37%	+0.55
+14	2026-03-09	0.8588	+0.059	+7.33%	+10.66
+30	2026-03-30	0.9098	+0.110	+13.71%	+19.93
+60	2026-04-27	0.8108	+0.011	+1.33%	+1.94
+90	2026-05-25	0.8401	+0.040	+5.00%	+7.27

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.69%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8606	-0.005	-0.56%	-0.96
−14	2026-02-09	0.8614	-0.004	-0.46%	-0.80
−7	2026-02-16	0.8603	-0.005	-0.60%	-1.03
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8654	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8654	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8654	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8654	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8664	+0.001	+0.12%	+0.20
+7	2026-03-02	0.8664	+0.001	+0.12%	+0.20
+14	2026-03-09	0.8986	+0.033	+3.83%	+6.61
+30	2026-03-30	0.9271	+0.062	+7.13%	+12.28
+60	2026-04-27	0.8493	-0.016	-1.87%	-3.22
+90	2026-05-25	0.8954	+0.030	+3.47%	+5.98

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.58%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 154). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–8.836 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	90.87 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.47% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.72 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	3,014,238 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-4.46% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.41 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.294 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+73.52% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +34.25 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	2.204 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+42.56% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +32.01 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Awstrija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'austria'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+0.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.64858
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.3813973203847825
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.7769041921750216
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.40183801179047784
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0050000000000000044
change_pct_from_t0
0.7769041921750216
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
change_in_volatility_units
0.40183801179047784
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.64858
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.3813973203847825
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.7769041921750216
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.40183801179047784
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0050000000000000044
change_pct_from_t0
0.7769041921750216
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.40183801179047784
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 96facc635fb4fae4c6c007e44b324746aad4838c5ae05378bb6d398a5d89b7ac · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+47.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’24.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.95191
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
23.638078077417347
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
47.908573914664835
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
24.779742835071584
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.30833
change_pct_from_t0
47.908573914664835
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
change_in_volatility_units
24.779742835071584
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.95191
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
23.638078077417347
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
47.908573914664835
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
24.779742835071584
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.30833
change_pct_from_t0
47.908573914664835
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
24.779742835071584
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 79fda6da63b65b33a885b5f9a2bc389414ea0855fc445e2017466016c868b16f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+42.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9135800000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
20.951998318023097
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
41.95282637745113
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.699252636685788
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.27
change_pct_from_t0
41.95282637745113
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
change_in_volatility_units
21.699252636685788
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9135800000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
20.951998318023097
t0_value
0.64358
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
41.95282637745113
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.699252636685788
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.27
change_pct_from_t0
41.95282637745113
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.9333765581642057
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.699252636685788
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 85bddc02ea5545af2112f9c0185e1634471d59e3a3eebadd08bb3eca17f7dcad · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+0.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5150000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.381473133369844
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.39761431411530845
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3587118524193878
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.006000000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
0.39761431411530845
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
change_in_volatility_units
0.3587118524193878
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5150000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.381473133369844
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.39761431411530845
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3587118524193878
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.006000000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
0.39761431411530845
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3587118524193878
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c85b32b0ac5f70fac874458a28350be6958ba8280378fc7bcae3663b6b42570e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+24.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’22.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.879
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
23.639527588191644
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
24.51954937044399
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
22.12056423252889
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3699999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
24.51954937044399
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
change_in_volatility_units
22.12056423252889
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.879
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
23.639527588191644
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
24.51954937044399
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
22.12056423252889
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3699999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
24.51954937044399
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
22.12056423252889
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6bf2e24b21bec8e7e6af06955bdea976c20d9698dedda21670e46566860b6fa7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+19.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.809
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
19.551440193033603
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
19.880715705765393
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.935592620969363
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2999999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
19.880715705765393
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
change_in_volatility_units
17.935592620969363
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.809
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
19.551440193033603
t0_value
1.5090000000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
19.880715705765393
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.935592620969363
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2999999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
19.880715705765393
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.1084504496674334
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.935592620969363
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità fd303fd4da07e012f9bf7259a26fcae4e0e2383761225295b80352c5926b3b96 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+2.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.76087
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.08254864498624
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.011074315899555
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9370524650799811
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015000000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
2.011074315899555
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
change_in_volatility_units
0.9370524650799811
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.76087
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.08254864498624
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.011074315899555
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9370524650799811
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015000000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
2.011074315899555
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.9370524650799811
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6faa28f90e067418612a7c47cf5ee56749c9dc84b0168d826e4920512b25f394 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+73.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’34.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.29421
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
25.651083677882585
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
73.51683269202408
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
34.25488991346376
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.54834
change_pct_from_t0
73.51683269202408
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
change_in_volatility_units
34.25488991346376
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.29421
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
25.651083677882585
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
73.51683269202408
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
34.25488991346376
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.54834
change_pct_from_t0
73.51683269202408
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
34.25488991346376
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7c76b7c424d04d767a15541cde37cf0a0290f6905567dc0f32c44428e610fea1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+42.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’20.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0658699999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
15.560636140830132
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.902918739190454
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.990452588372904
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.31999999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
42.902918739190454
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
change_in_volatility_units
19.990452588372904
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0658699999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
15.560636140830132
t0_value
0.74587
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.902918739190454
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.990452588372904
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.31999999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
42.902918739190454
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.146170455597598
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.990452588372904
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e76340f3b2cccf017be7f8bb4167929610afdfa5c1b65fdd265454ae4baccb9e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+1.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.564
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.0828581830749275
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.164294954721864
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.875529655616022
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018000000000000016
change_pct_from_t0
1.164294954721864
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
change_in_volatility_units
0.875529655616022
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.564
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
2.0828581830749275
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.164294954721864
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.875529655616022
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018000000000000016
change_pct_from_t0
1.164294954721864
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.875529655616022
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2814061ab9f15383c6263eb7018891ef7f3d53bb4b7fa1ebdb14373cc713ebe0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+42.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’32.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.204
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
25.653119744001362
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.56144890038811
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
32.00547296640789
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.6580000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
42.56144890038811
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
change_in_volatility_units
32.00547296640789
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.204
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
25.653119744001362
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.56144890038811
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
32.00547296640789
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.6580000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
42.56144890038811
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
32.00547296640789
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3b984dce7dd809d173b42bb5f1af139f98449bd3cd2c56d455c7d0f99a9c0ac5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Awstrija) inbidel b’+23.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.9060000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
14.678216704694993
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
23.285899094437262
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.51059311232043
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3600000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
23.285899094437262
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
change_in_volatility_units
17.51059311232043
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.9060000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
z_score
14.678216704694993
t0_value
1.546
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
23.285899094437262
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.51059311232043
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3600000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
23.285899094437262
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.329817839125811
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.51059311232043
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3d96efbf9c23df825653f773f7d7a2d672c8ff600f25fc6579ddd3219331c6a9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Awstrija) b’+22.4 c/l (firxa +16.5–+28.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+27.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +5.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.052507019868946014
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27666999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.22416298013105396
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.16514389780096425
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.28318206246114425
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.052507019868946014
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27666999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.22416298013105396
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.16514389780096425
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.28318206246114425
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1e2935097a8879a048d967b649af4832dc6939d0f514e7eb5ba7211d01371583 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Awstrija) b’+30.3 c/l (firxa +15.1–+45.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+27.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -3.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03257770971367524
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27
expected_eur_per_litre
0.30257770971367526
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.15053028882135844
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.45462513060599324
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03257770971367524
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27
expected_eur_per_litre
0.30257770971367526
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.15053028882135844
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.45462513060599324
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b63577309500a650f593243d9bb29fa0119dae08a96e97aed8cc46c85a39a544 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Awstrija) b’+32.1 c/l (firxa +23.4–+40.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+46.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +14.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.14810399219196985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.46916999999999986
expected_eur_per_litre
0.32106600780803
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.23402110966793765
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.4081109059481217
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.14810399219196985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.46916999999999986
expected_eur_per_litre
0.32106600780803
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.23402110966793765
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.4081109059481217
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 930d522daff135c92ce41105ead267427a32999d7115d9688bd956efce2e437a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Awstrija) b’+47.9 c/l (firxa +28.5–+67.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+32.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -15.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.15880043729165638
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.31999999999999984
expected_eur_per_litre
0.4788004372916562
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2854019532940877
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6721989212892223
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Austria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.15880043729165638
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.31999999999999984
expected_eur_per_litre
0.4788004372916562
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2854019532940877
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6721989212892223
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 32c413a214382e72d01d2dce0225c0362f18d6d7a029c7eb55e51915bdef3a2e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Awstrija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (6%–6%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Austria
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_max_pct
6.09195811139665
value_min_pct
5.84218782882939
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Austria
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_max_pct
6.09195811139665
value_min_pct
5.84218782882939
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bf0395ea5d611e5e49640e110cd711eceffdc6642691bb73ed550ba634a1ecb2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Awstrija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatBaxxa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9e687889cbc674dcdf3056d793230d1d01386f23e6e888b2490ab5620281c9d5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (l-Awstrija, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +0.6%.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Austria
change_pct
0.5727135552807507
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_tonnes
674742
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
670899.6666666666
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Austria
change_pct
0.5727135552807507
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
value_tonnes
674742
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
670899.6666666666
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 99469ede0e93265e1598fb2c74e61f7f8e0d8dbd102da989cc2f20e249b49017 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (l-Awstrija) kienu 2.9% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 91.3 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_AT
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
days_of_cover
91.294
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
2.5391369573321123
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3155079
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3247798.6666666665
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-2.8548465032109953
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-2.8548465032109953
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-2.9
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Austria
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_AT
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
days_of_cover
91.294
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
2.5391369573321123
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3155079
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3247798.6666666665
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-2.8548465032109953
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 955da206e1cec87419713623243f3e5897fa491247f346043daed45a365f4f95 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (l-Awstrija) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (6–6%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: l-AwstrijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Austria
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
dependence_band
limited
dependence_range
6–6%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Austria
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
AT
country_name
Austria
country_slug
austria
dependence_band
limited
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
6–6%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9c33dc476acf50b2201e72d97f3f7f4aa914385adcb5daed5205f906d8328403 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

L-Awstrija: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Awstrija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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