Fuel Origin

Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati
28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data
jum
Status
Għadu għaddej
Ambitu
L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat
Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1
Dokumenti tas-sors (7)
PajjiżPajjiżIl-ĠermanjaFranzaIn-NetherlandsIl-PolonjaIl-FinlandjaL-EstonjaL-AwstrijaIl-BelġjuIl-BulgarijaIl-KroazjaĊipruIċ-ĊekjaId-DanimarkaIl-GreċjaL-UngerijaL-IrlandaL-ItaljaIl-LatvjaIl-LitwanjaIl-LussemburguMaltaIl-PortugallIr-RumanijaIs-SlovakkjaIs-SlovenjaSpanjaL-Iżvezja
KarburantKarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

In-Netherlands, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 18; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 11.

Qari ppubblikat: 210; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 24; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 143. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+904,863,6254,501,3192026-01-01: 4,543,555 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 4,536,381 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 4,828,563 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 4,679,526 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 4,681,725 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-014,543,555+7,174+0.16%+0.01
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T04,536,3810.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T04,536,3810.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T04,536,3810.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T04,536,3810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T04,536,3810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-014,828,563+292,182+6.44%+0.41
+32026-03-014,828,563+292,182+6.44%+0.41
+72026-03-014,828,563+292,182+6.44%+0.41
+142026-03-014,828,563+292,182+6.44%+0.41
+302026-03-014,828,563+292,182+6.44%+0.41
+602026-04-014,679,526+143,145+3.16%+0.20
+902026-05-014,681,725+145,344+3.20%+0.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 15.56%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 1.186 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 1.177 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 1.178 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 1.156 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 1.171 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 1.164 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+9013.090.002026-04-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +902026-01-01: 7.085 sa 8.629 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-02-01: 1.977 sa 2.148 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-03-01: 5.279 sa 11.68 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-017.085–8.629mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-011.977–2.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-011.977–2.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-011.977–2.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-011.977–2.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-011.977–2.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-015.279–11.68mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-015.279–11.68mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-015.279–11.68mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-015.279–11.68mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-015.279–11.68mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-010mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-010mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+907.2760.0002026-01-01: 3.284 sa 5.731 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-02-01: 5.129 sa 6.496 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-03-01: 2.875 sa 4.555 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-04-01: 3.055 sa 3.388 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-05-01: 0 sa 0.9899 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-013.284–5.731mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-015.129–6.496mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-015.129–6.496mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-015.129–6.496mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-015.129–6.496mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-015.129–6.496mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-012.875–4.555mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-012.875–4.555mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-012.875–4.555mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-012.875–4.555mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-012.875–4.555mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-013.055–3.388mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-010–0.9899mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90110.70.02026-01-01: 98.84 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 98.64 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 96.45 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 92.45 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0198.84+0.191+0.19%+0.07
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T098.640.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T098.640.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T098.640.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T098.640.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T098.640.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0196.45-2.198-2.23%-0.77
+32026-03-0196.45-2.198-2.23%-0.77
+72026-03-0196.45-2.198-2.23%-0.77
+142026-03-0196.45-2.198-2.23%-0.77
+302026-03-0196.45-2.198-2.23%-0.77
+602026-04-010-98.644-100.00%-34.72
+902026-05-0192.45-6.196-6.28%-2.18

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.88%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+9015,207,22411,494,2732026-01-01: 14,028,882 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 14,448,971 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 14,847,906 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 13,960,231 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 11,853,591 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0114,028,882-420,089-2.91%-0.53
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T014,448,9710.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T014,448,9710.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T014,448,9710.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T014,448,9710.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T014,448,9710.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0114,847,906+398,935+2.76%+0.50
+32026-03-0114,847,906+398,935+2.76%+0.50
+72026-03-0114,847,906+398,935+2.76%+0.50
+142026-03-0114,847,906+398,935+2.76%+0.50
+302026-03-0114,847,906+398,935+2.76%+0.50
+602026-04-0113,960,231-488,740-3.38%-0.62
+902026-05-0111,853,591-2,595,380-17.96%-3.27

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.49%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.5411.7392026-01-26: 1.816 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.827 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.873 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.889 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 2.255 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.463 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 2.311 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 2.263 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.816-0.057-3.04%-1.99
−142026-02-091.817-0.056-3.01%-1.97
−72026-02-161.827-0.046-2.46%-1.61
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8730.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8730.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8730.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8730.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.889+0.016+0.85%+0.56
+72026-03-021.889+0.016+0.85%+0.56
+142026-03-092.255+0.382+20.41%+13.37
+302026-03-302.463+0.590+31.51%+20.64
+602026-04-272.311+0.438+23.37%+15.31
+902026-05-252.263+0.390+20.80%+13.62

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.4311.9832026-01-26: 2.027 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 2.026 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 2.040 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 2.062 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 2.070 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 2.172 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.334 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 2.324 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 2.387 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-262.027-0.035-1.67%-1.38
−142026-02-092.026-0.035-1.71%-1.40
−72026-02-162.040-0.022-1.05%-0.86
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T02.0620.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T02.0620.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T02.0620.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T02.0620.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-022.070+0.008+0.39%+0.32
+72026-03-022.070+0.008+0.39%+0.32
+142026-03-092.172+0.110+5.34%+4.39
+302026-03-302.334+0.273+13.22%+10.87
+602026-04-272.324+0.262+12.71%+10.45
+902026-05-252.387+0.326+15.81%+13.00

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.22%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.5420.8792026-01-26: 0.9430 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.9434 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.9518 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.9900 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.003 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.306 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.478 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.352 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.312 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.9430-0.047-4.75%-2.17
−142026-02-090.9434-0.047-4.70%-2.15
−72026-02-160.9518-0.038-3.85%-1.76
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.99000.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.99000.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.99000.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.99000.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.003+0.013+1.33%+0.61
+72026-03-021.003+0.013+1.33%+0.61
+142026-03-091.306+0.316+31.92%+14.62
+302026-03-301.478+0.488+49.27%+22.56
+602026-04-271.352+0.362+36.55%+16.74
+902026-05-251.312+0.322+32.52%+14.89

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.18%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1610.7912026-01-26: 0.8272 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.8267 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.8379 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8557 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8623 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9467 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.081 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.072 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.125 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.8272-0.029-3.33%-1.46
−142026-02-090.8267-0.029-3.40%-1.49
−72026-02-160.8379-0.018-2.09%-0.91
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.85570.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.85570.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.85570.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.85570.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8623+0.007+0.77%+0.34
+72026-03-020.8623+0.007+0.77%+0.34
+142026-03-090.9467+0.091+10.64%+4.66
+302026-03-301.081+0.225+26.33%+11.54
+602026-04-271.072+0.217+25.31%+11.09
+902026-05-251.125+0.269+31.47%+13.79

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.28%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.9990.8602026-01-26: 0.8732 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.8733 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.8751 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8831 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8858 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9494 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9855 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9591 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.9507 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.8732-0.010-1.12%-0.73
−142026-02-090.8733-0.010-1.11%-0.73
−72026-02-160.8751-0.008-0.91%-0.60
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.88310.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.88310.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.88310.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.88310.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8858+0.003+0.31%+0.21
+72026-03-020.8858+0.003+0.31%+0.21
+142026-03-090.9494+0.066+7.51%+4.94
+302026-03-300.9855+0.102+11.60%+7.63
+602026-04-270.9591+0.076+8.60%+5.66
+902026-05-250.9507+0.068+7.66%+5.04

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2701.1922026-01-26: 1.200 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.200 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.202 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.206 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.207 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.225 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.253 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.251 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.262 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.200-0.006-0.50%-0.38
−142026-02-091.200-0.006-0.51%-0.38
−72026-02-161.202-0.004-0.31%-0.24
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.2060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.2060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.2060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.2060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.207+0.001+0.12%+0.09
+72026-03-021.207+0.001+0.12%+0.09
+142026-03-091.225+0.019+1.59%+1.20
+302026-03-301.253+0.047+3.92%+2.98
+602026-04-271.251+0.045+3.77%+2.86
+902026-05-251.262+0.057+4.69%+3.56

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.32%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Mhux disponibbli: raġuni mhux ikklassifikata

L-API ta kodiċi ta’ raġuni li din il-paġna ma tagħrafx. Is-sentenza tiegħu tintwera hawn taħt kif inhi.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Sors
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Mhux magħruf
Perjodu 2026-01Aġġornat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCKunfidenzaMhux magħrufaMetodoloġijaNiżżel is-CSV

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
DimensjoniStatusĊifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Firxa biss
5.279–11.68 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Firxa biss
2.875–4.555 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.Osservat
96.45 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-2.23% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.77 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.Osservat
121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.Mhux disponibbliIl-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.Mhux disponibbliM’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.Mhux disponibbliIn-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.Osservat
14,847,906 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+2.76% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.50 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.Mhux disponibbliIs-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.Osservat
1.478 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+49.27% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +22.56 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.Osservat
2.463 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+31.51% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +20.64 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: in-Netherlands, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

In-Netherlands, petrol (Euro-super 95): dak li kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF.

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut (bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa).

Ma tinġibed l-ebda linja: perkors mistenni mhux magħruf mhuwiex linja ċatta fuq iż-żero, u ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

  • X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, in-Netherlands) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

  1. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+0.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8623388429752067
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.3187202974898375
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.773599119198005
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.33897859583463474
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006619834710743788
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.773599119198005
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.33897859583463474
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8623388429752067
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.3187202974898375
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.773599119198005
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.33897859583463474
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006619834710743788
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.773599119198005
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.33897859583463474

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b273767c7683429364c14a2baa4e1a764464793cae84252da703aa77c812972f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  2. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+26.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0809917355371899
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    10.456704160532482
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    26.32554905255834
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    11.535428920425069
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.22527272727272696
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.32554905255834
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    change_in_volatility_units
    11.535428920425069
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0809917355371899
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    10.456704160532482
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    26.32554905255834
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    11.535428920425069
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.22527272727272696
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.32554905255834
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    11.535428920425069

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3b28b9adbf79980f1fd6ba07336afe82ed30d17f98ca4cd70b05f7d9e6360d25 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  3. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+31.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1250413223140496
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    12.096174016903861
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    31.473218597284188
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.791054283469537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26932231404958673
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.473218597284188
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.791054283469537
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1250413223140496
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    12.096174016903861
    t0_value
    0.8557190082644629
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    31.473218597284188
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.791054283469537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26932231404958673
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.473218597284188
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2821473942720347
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.791054283469537

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 76a34438f0309749c67536d8341371cc14f8425a3a7970be177972c6f231b9c1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  4. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+0.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.06951
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    1.8927702092151555
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.3885520252243547
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.31948648260314905
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.008010000000000073
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.3885520252243547
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.31948648260314905
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.06951
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    1.8927702092151555
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.3885520252243547
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.31948648260314905
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.008010000000000073
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.3885520252243547
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.31948648260314905

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f8c03d5a260e1d3d223676a9fdb6701899f43bab18e937ebee61780dea0419da · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  5. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+13.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’10.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.33408
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    6.4618878282790835
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    13.222410865874364
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.872113037199199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.27258000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.222410865874364
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.872113037199199
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.33408
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    6.4618878282790835
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    13.222410865874364
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.872113037199199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.27258000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.222410865874364
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.872113037199199

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a6cfcb18c6d604c637f32dcc2c0233c747eb5741a1015fb1c5c1fcbc5137977b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  6. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+15.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.3873800000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.382377562928166
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.807906863934035
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    12.998034325931748
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32588000000000017
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.807906863934035
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    change_in_volatility_units
    12.998034325931748
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.3873800000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.382377562928166
    t0_value
    2.0615
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.807906863934035
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    12.998034325931748
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32588000000000017
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.807906863934035
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2161767285378255
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    12.998034325931748

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 311e024b4b4fcac4a1ad383ce1ce9c46899247f51804bb6d8a657cde225e398d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  7. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+1.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0031652892561984
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.5356791754887724
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.3332108927587687
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6105622486438516
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.013198347107438169
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3332108927587687
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6105622486438516
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0031652892561984
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.5356791754887724
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.3332108927587687
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6105622486438516
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.013198347107438169
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.3332108927587687
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6105622486438516

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7ab930ae0473c3607d4f474969b85e08a12dd667cf79f02df46ec498e503d7c6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  8. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+49.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’22.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.4777438016528928
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    15.38273088809857
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    49.27203512931398
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.56480555867775
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4877768595041325
    change_pct_from_t0
    49.27203512931398
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.56480555867775
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.4777438016528928
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    15.38273088809857
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    49.27203512931398
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.56480555867775
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4877768595041325
    change_pct_from_t0
    49.27203512931398
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.56480555867775

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8c347e669d94c4c47472fdd3b5c1338965c2d2559f178349baf58395831f4690 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  9. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+32.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’14.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3119338842975206
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    10.89418257188774
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    32.522999348838766
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.894354466291105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3219669421487603
    change_pct_from_t0
    32.522999348838766
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.894354466291105
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3119338842975206
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    10.89418257188774
    t0_value
    0.9899669421487602
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    32.522999348838766
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.894354466291105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3219669421487603
    change_pct_from_t0
    32.522999348838766
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1835789810457915
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.894354466291105

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6ebf488d2dd9168efeac948431c9cfd90497d86aa286ec9a2ee966bb7bc2f488 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  10. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+0.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.88901
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.28296740295769
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.8526246102592597
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5584042431113955
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01597000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.8526246102592597
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5584042431113955
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.88901
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    2.28296740295769
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.8526246102592597
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.5584042431113955
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01597000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.8526246102592597
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.5584042431113955

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9694798b5f3501adb1682b6f19c3afd430da958b27bfb9d70c2b79d03ba96c69 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  11. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+31.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’20.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.46325
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    11.920493082573623
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.510805962499457
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.63718023336104
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5902099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.510805962499457
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.63718023336104
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.46325
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    11.920493082573623
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.510805962499457
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.63718023336104
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5902099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.510805962499457
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.63718023336104

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0dac9487616cb2f37fd14c2b7dcbe9ed5753c281457a96b6e2ee22e29ec24084 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  12. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, in-Netherlands) inbidel b’+20.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.26262
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    8.55330031108201
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    20.799342245760904
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.621986539219595
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.38958000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.799342245760904
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.621986539219595
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.26262
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    8.55330031108201
    t0_value
    1.87304
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    20.799342245760904
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.621986539219595
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.38958000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.799342245760904
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.526894934588043
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.621986539219595

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 52f2ccd8161aca528ee713a1ed98fe3270099ffa8c64929b8adf9fc395fe073c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  13. X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, in-Netherlands) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null

    Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d206a730847bc58d1105b73f620d5e31f3c436b26dc31f18d774688dae8cce2c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  14. X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, in-Netherlands) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null

    Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1b42efb39b763e36ffe600426aba276ca7cc2d66ea1358acdd4cfad1444b4ddc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  15. In-Netherlands, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (2%–2%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    2.1478395134635
    value_min_pct
    1.97650722507419
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    2.1478395134635
    value_min_pct
    1.97650722507419
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 521fcc22e409b6900a572916059e5f659d1923fefa2622906baf8e47bb3f11cf · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  16. In-Netherlands, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (5%–6%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    6.49620337172642
    value_min_pct
    5.12879295494149
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    6.49620337172642
    value_min_pct
    5.12879295494149
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1ef51364359699bdef5eb724c0d09754e6f9f4de8441f54029ccd4dcab65fa7f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  17. L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (in-Netherlands, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +1.5%.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Netherlands
    change_pct
    1.4543608245806747
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_tonnes
    4536381
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    4471351.416666667
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    baseline_not_published_months
    0
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Netherlands
    change_pct
    1.4543608245806747
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_tonnes
    4536381
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    4471351.416666667
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    baseline_not_published_months
    0

    Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità acab4168da5ab5d3a9f0ec32f514265c937a88eaf5b051b68aff196ee7b66d8d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  18. Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (in-Netherlands) kienu 13.6% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 98.6 (kif ippubblikati).

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_NL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    days_of_cover
    98.644
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.9944581471281886
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    14448971
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    12720389.166666666
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    13.589064066239589
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    13.589064066239589
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    13.6
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_NL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    days_of_cover
    98.644
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.9944581471281886
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    14448971
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    12720389.166666666
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    13.589064066239589
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8c0b1cb40c126dd9188a653ad5660a1126be226e2941902d5931f371aa6435f0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  19. Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn

    Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (in-Netherlands) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (2–2%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

    pajjiż: in-NetherlandsMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Netherlands
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    2–2%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Netherlands
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    2–2%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5f6d4886f9cada087cf546cf407e3c2d3cd2ac37889fea5eba033d523b6a3335 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  20. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  21. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  22. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  23. Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  24. Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  25. Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  26. Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

  • Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
  • Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
  • Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
  • Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

In-Netherlands: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

  • UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
  • IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
  • IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
  • Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.