Fuel Origin

Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati
28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data
jum
Status
Għadu għaddej
Ambitu
L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat
Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1
Dokumenti tas-sors (7)
PajjiżPajjiżIl-ĠermanjaFranzaIn-NetherlandsIl-PolonjaIl-FinlandjaL-EstonjaL-AwstrijaIl-BelġjuIl-BulgarijaIl-KroazjaĊipruIċ-ĊekjaId-DanimarkaIl-GreċjaL-UngerijaL-IrlandaL-ItaljaIl-LatvjaIl-LitwanjaIl-LussemburguMaltaIl-PortugallIr-RumanijaIs-SlovakkjaIs-SlovenjaSpanjaL-Iżvezja
KarburantKarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Polonja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 266; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 20; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902,146,8861,416,8142026-01-01: 2,076,234 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 1,862,117 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 1,662,721 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 1,893,151 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 1,487,466 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-012,076,234+214,117+11.50%+0.76
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01,862,1170.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01,862,1170.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01,862,1170.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01,862,1170.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01,862,1170.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-011,662,721-199,396-10.71%-0.70
+32026-03-011,662,721-199,396-10.71%-0.70
+72026-03-011,662,721-199,396-10.71%-0.70
+142026-03-011,662,721-199,396-10.71%-0.70
+302026-03-011,662,721-199,396-10.71%-0.70
+602026-04-011,893,151+31,034+1.67%+0.11
+902026-05-011,487,466-374,651-20.12%-1.32

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 15.21%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2720.6702026-01-26: 0.7282 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.7427 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.7474 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7559 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7782 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8878 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.098 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.146 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.214 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7282-0.028-3.67%-0.00
−142026-02-090.7427-0.013-1.75%-0.00
−72026-02-160.7474-0.009-1.13%-0.00
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7782+0.022+2.95%+0.00
+72026-03-020.7782+0.022+2.95%+0.00
+142026-03-090.8878+0.132+17.44%+0.02
+302026-03-301.098+0.342+45.19%+0.06
+602026-04-271.146+0.390+51.55%+0.07
+902026-05-251.214+0.458+60.61%+0.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 788.70%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1670.6182026-01-26: 0.6711 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6805 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.6843 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6879 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7210 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7725 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9604 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.026 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.114 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.6711-0.017-2.44%-0.01
−142026-02-090.6805-0.007-1.07%-0.01
−72026-02-160.6843-0.004-0.52%-0.00
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7210+0.033+4.81%+0.02
+72026-03-020.7210+0.033+4.81%+0.02
+142026-03-090.7725+0.085+12.30%+0.06
+302026-03-300.9604+0.273+39.62%+0.21
+602026-04-271.026+0.339+49.23%+0.25
+902026-05-251.114+0.426+61.89%+0.32

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 193.25%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 1.186 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 1.177 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 1.178 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 1.156 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 1.171 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 1.164 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+9050.760.002026-01-01: 0 sa 35.34 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-02-01: 0 sa 45.32 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-03-01: 0 sa 34.94 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-04-01: 0 sa 39.74 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-05-01: 0 sa 33.35 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-010–35.34mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-010–45.32mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-010–45.32mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-010–45.32mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-010–45.32mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-010–45.32mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-010–34.94mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-010–34.94mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-010–34.94mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-010–34.94mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-010–34.94mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-010–39.74mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-010–33.35mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+908.1280.000l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-05-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +902026-01-01: 0 sa 3.639 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-03-01: 5.845 sa 7.257 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-04-01: 0 sa 0.0016 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-010–3.639mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-015.845–7.257mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-015.845–7.257mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-015.845–7.257mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-015.845–7.257mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-015.845–7.257mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-010–0.0016mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+9091.5791.452026-01-01: 91.55 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 91.55 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 91.48 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 91.46 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 91.49 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0191.55+0.003+0.00%+0.00
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T091.550.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T091.550.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T091.550.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T091.550.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T091.550.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0191.48-0.072-0.08%-0.03
+32026-03-0191.48-0.072-0.08%-0.03
+72026-03-0191.48-0.072-0.08%-0.03
+142026-03-0191.48-0.072-0.08%-0.03
+302026-03-0191.48-0.072-0.08%-0.03
+602026-04-0191.46-0.090-0.10%-0.03
+902026-05-0191.49-0.063-0.07%-0.02

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.04%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+9011,473,01010,814,7012026-01-01: 11,235,507 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 11,312,889 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 11,409,303 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 11,325,027 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 10,878,408 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0111,235,507-77,382-0.68%-0.31
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T011,312,8890.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T011,312,8890.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T011,312,8890.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T011,312,8890.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T011,312,8890.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0111,409,303+96,414+0.85%+0.38
+32026-03-0111,409,303+96,414+0.85%+0.38
+72026-03-0111,409,303+96,414+0.85%+0.38
+142026-03-0111,409,303+96,414+0.85%+0.38
+302026-03-0111,409,303+96,414+0.85%+0.38
+602026-04-0111,325,027+12,138+0.11%+0.05
+902026-05-0110,878,408-434,481-3.84%-1.72

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.23%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.248-0.1152026-01-26: 0.0074 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: -0.0036 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: -0.0026 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0175 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.1236 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.2129 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.0214 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: -0.0796 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.0074+0.007mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-09-0.0036-0.004mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-16-0.0026-0.003mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-02-0.0175-0.018mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-02-0.0175-0.018mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-090.1236+0.124mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-300.2129+0.213mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-270.0214+0.021mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-25-0.0796-0.080mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.065-0.0892026-01-26: -0.0120 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: -0.0149 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: -0.0083 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0319 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0219 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.0502 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: -0.0511 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: -0.0743 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-26-0.0120-0.012mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-09-0.0149-0.015mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-16-0.0083-0.008mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-02-0.0319-0.032mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-02-0.0319-0.032mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-090.0219+0.022mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-300.0502+0.050mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-27-0.0511-0.051mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-25-0.0743-0.074mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.0921.3262026-01-26: 1.400 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.404 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.411 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.424 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.426 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.731 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.017 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.620 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.586 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.400-0.024-1.69%-1.25
−142026-02-091.404-0.020-1.41%-1.04
−72026-02-161.411-0.013-0.90%-0.67
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.4240.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.4240.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.4240.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.4240.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.426+0.003+0.19%+0.14
+72026-03-021.426+0.003+0.19%+0.14
+142026-03-091.731+0.307+21.57%+15.94
+302026-03-302.017+0.594+41.70%+30.81
+602026-04-271.620+0.196+13.80%+10.19
+902026-05-251.586+0.162+11.38%+8.41

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.35%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.7211.3022026-01-26: 1.342 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.350 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.363 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.377 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.375 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.500 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.681 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.443 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.512 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.342-0.034-2.49%-1.98
−142026-02-091.350-0.027-1.94%-1.54
−72026-02-161.363-0.014-1.00%-0.80
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.3770.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.3770.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.3770.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.3770.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.375-0.002-0.14%-0.11
+72026-03-021.375-0.002-0.14%-0.11
+142026-03-091.500+0.123+8.96%+7.14
+302026-03-301.681+0.304+22.07%+17.60
+602026-04-271.443+0.066+4.78%+3.81
+902026-05-251.512+0.136+9.86%+7.86

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.25%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3800.6672026-01-26: 0.7355 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.7391 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.7448 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7559 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7607 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.011 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.311 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.167 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.135 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7355-0.020-2.70%-1.44
−142026-02-090.7391-0.017-2.22%-1.19
−72026-02-160.7448-0.011-1.47%-0.79
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.75590.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7607+0.005+0.63%+0.33
+72026-03-020.7607+0.005+0.63%+0.33
+142026-03-091.011+0.255+33.79%+18.08
+302026-03-301.311+0.555+73.36%+39.25
+602026-04-271.167+0.411+54.39%+29.10
+902026-05-251.135+0.379+50.08%+26.80

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.87%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0850.6142026-01-26: 0.6591 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6656 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.6760 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6879 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6891 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7943 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.011 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9754 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.039 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.6591-0.029-4.18%-2.37
−142026-02-090.6656-0.022-3.23%-1.83
−72026-02-160.6760-0.012-1.73%-0.98
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68790.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6891+0.001+0.17%+0.10
+72026-03-020.6891+0.001+0.17%+0.10
+142026-03-090.7943+0.106+15.48%+8.77
+302026-03-301.011+0.323+46.92%+26.60
+602026-04-270.9754+0.287+41.79%+23.69
+902026-05-251.039+0.351+51.09%+28.96

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.76%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7520.4192026-01-26: 0.6641 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6646 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.6660 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6678 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6658 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7195 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.7069 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.4531 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.4513 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.6641-0.004-0.55%-0.63
−142026-02-090.6646-0.003-0.48%-0.56
−72026-02-160.6660-0.002-0.26%-0.30
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.66780.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.66780.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.66780.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.66780.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6658-0.002-0.30%-0.35
+72026-03-020.6658-0.002-0.30%-0.35
+142026-03-090.7195+0.052+7.74%+8.92
+302026-03-300.7069+0.039+5.85%+6.74
+602026-04-270.4531-0.215-32.16%-37.07
+902026-05-250.4513-0.217-32.42%-37.38

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.87%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7340.4392026-01-26: 0.6833 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6844 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.6869 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6888 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6858 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7057 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6699 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.4672 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.4732 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.6833-0.005-0.80%-0.97
−142026-02-090.6844-0.004-0.64%-0.78
−72026-02-160.6869-0.002-0.27%-0.33
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68880.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68880.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68880.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.68880.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6858-0.003-0.44%-0.54
+72026-03-020.6858-0.003-0.44%-0.54
+142026-03-090.7057+0.017+2.45%+2.98
+302026-03-300.6699-0.019-2.74%-3.33
+602026-04-270.4672-0.222-32.18%-39.10
+902026-05-250.4732-0.216-31.30%-38.04

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.82%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Sors
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Mhux magħruf
Perjodu 2026-01Aġġornat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCKunfidenzaMhux magħrufaMetodoloġijaNiżżel is-CSV

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
DimensjoniStatusĊifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Firxa biss
0–34.94 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Firxa biss
5.845–7.257 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.Osservat
91.48 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.08% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.03 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.Osservat
121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.Mhux disponibbliIl-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.Mhux disponibbliM’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.Mhux disponibbliIn-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.Osservat
11,409,303 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+0.85% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.38 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.Mhux disponibbliIs-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.Osservat
1.311 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+73.36% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +39.25 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.Osservat
2.017 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+41.70% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +30.81 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Polonja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

2026-03-232026-05-25-200204060c/l mill-ġimgħa ta’ referenza
  • Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
  • X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
  • Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2026-02-23. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+21.7 c/l (firxa +16.2–+27.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+25.2 c/l, u jibqa’ +3.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+42.6 c/l (firxa +25.5–+59.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+35.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -7.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

  1. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6890676317661082
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.4098357314012842
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.1748216865042543
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.09911256157500328
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0012025373589167332
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.1748216865042543
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.09911256157500328
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6890676317661082
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.4098357314012842
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.1748216865042543
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.09911256157500328
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0012025373589167332
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.1748216865042543
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.09911256157500328

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 10e741ec052392dc8cd8a7fd3df03442afdf3e44defcbfcb95526f96946e7c09 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  2. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+46.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’26.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0106180207243636
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    16.961075657019823
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    46.92096298262141
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    26.601143861292886
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3227529263171721
    change_pct_from_t0
    46.92096298262141
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    change_in_volatility_units
    26.601143861292886
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0106180207243636
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    16.961075657019823
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    46.92096298262141
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    26.601143861292886
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3227529263171721
    change_pct_from_t0
    46.92096298262141
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    26.601143861292886

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5bda2ee092635172d98b4e099248c7613b5bc44ea26751390cda5aff42b709b2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  3. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+51.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’29.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0392610029225045
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    18.435422716846254
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    51.08500363987059
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.96188493578414
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.351395908515313
    change_pct_from_t0
    51.08500363987059
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.96188493578414
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0392610029225045
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    18.435422716846254
    t0_value
    0.6878650944071915
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    51.08500363987059
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.96188493578414
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.351395908515313
    change_pct_from_t0
    51.08500363987059
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7638701263104604
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.96188493578414

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ddac92820b104884b6f8e02d5f0df8c448d9482ee2d85a16662236ac1e74c3ce · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  4. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’-0.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3748214952721247
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.36512288860943637
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.13503851238004771
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.10765608594719868
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0018590489271121946
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.13503851238004771
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.10765608594719868
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3748214952721247
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    0.36512288860943637
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.13503851238004771
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.10765608594719868
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0018590489271121946
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.13503851238004771
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.10765608594719868

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8a14a184e491b4fc9bcc62edc073af086dda145b2d0d5cea4b6536522c9759bb · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  5. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+22.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6805544406116442
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    14.038370871256584
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.07294188131054
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.5971023850896
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30387389641240725
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.07294188131054
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.5971023850896
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6805544406116442
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    14.038370871256584
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.07294188131054
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.5971023850896
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30387389641240725
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.07294188131054
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.5971023850896

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 183a419d899029213d9f30e5db90536a4d5e9d4bf90a0291e8f1f4d57c07bfea · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  6. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+9.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.512443966046847
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.519991703279341
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    9.86165036032949
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.861954786534795
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13576342184761003
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.86165036032949
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.861954786534795
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.512443966046847
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    6.519991703279341
    t0_value
    1.376680544199237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    9.86165036032949
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.861954786534795
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.13576342184761003
    change_pct_from_t0
    9.86165036032949
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.254350937914268
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.861954786534795

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1b977954b2ec36e422403773274c57d8960307584236b8b91a82b16ff48f97a8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  7. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+0.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7606779233538215
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.22353821451800696
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.6255043901525442
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.3346792792156067
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.004728496850113673
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6255043901525442
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.3346792792156067
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7606779233538215
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.22353821451800696
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.6255043901525442
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.3346792792156067
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.004728496850113673
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.6255043901525442
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.3346792792156067

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9f2bd4dd27d0584f93fcea23943eed310350c237c802b6dc1a1121cb223b1c74 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  8. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+73.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’39.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3105366344144678
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    21.697418406063733
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    73.3630039876801
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    39.25324535244365
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.55458720791076
    change_pct_from_t0
    73.3630039876801
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    change_in_volatility_units
    39.25324535244365
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.3105366344144678
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    21.697418406063733
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    73.3630039876801
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    39.25324535244365
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.55458720791076
    change_pct_from_t0
    73.3630039876801
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    39.25324535244365

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f29c850fd813f1f0fdfdff90cbbe1b11ff4ff48356235fc66e16a536d8601469 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  9. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+50.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’26.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1345238736434997
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    14.680401096132154
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    50.079335186576145
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    26.795200909385496
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.37857444713979194
    change_pct_from_t0
    50.079335186576145
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    change_in_volatility_units
    26.795200909385496
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1345238736434997
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    14.680401096132154
    t0_value
    0.7559494265037078
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    50.079335186576145
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    26.795200909385496
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.37857444713979194
    change_pct_from_t0
    50.079335186576145
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8689665868127514
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    26.795200909385496

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9f7dde8b0ee8c20c38fb89bdc98718311a1b6907c1d14ecb8e5e7ee19ff10c47 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  10. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.42645137635668
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.24270033100231916
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.19024880281839987
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.14059059964322015
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.002708653485476553
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.19024880281839987
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.14059059964322015
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.42645137635668
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    -0.24270033100231916
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.19024880281839987
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.14059059964322015
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.002708653485476553
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.19024880281839987
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.14059059964322015

    Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità faa806b68b099886deac36fc273ec75565a884c75a6667cba706ee4719d60c85 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  11. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+41.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’30.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0173956875014016
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    20.820812446880083
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    41.69664610702998
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    30.813105746027478
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5936529646301982
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.69664610702998
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    change_in_volatility_units
    30.813105746027478
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0173956875014016
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    20.820812446880083
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    41.69664610702998
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    30.813105746027478
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5936529646301982
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.69664610702998
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    30.813105746027478

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5cfe032aee15f507573b66a328081bdc6c5fb8a7e028e89d3b604a98cc1a8420 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  12. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+11.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.585800980134342
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    5.4371282958600995
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.382552104380375
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.411510622500819
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1620582572631386
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.382552104380375
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.411510622500819
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.585800980134342
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    z_score
    5.4371282958600995
    t0_value
    1.4237427228712034
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.382552104380375
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.411510622500819
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1620582572631386
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.382552104380375
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.353211404611677
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.411510622500819

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 27e124b5deb580a536ff57a907b0b672a8c5529a4d67b2bb0b8df1ff5d5b19bc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  13. Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+21.7 c/l (firxa +16.2–+27.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+25.2 c/l, u jibqa’ +3.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.034980539795025606
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2522623289986422
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2172817892036166
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.16165897601280885
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2729046023944239
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.034980539795025606
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2522623289986422
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2172817892036166
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.16165897601280885
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2729046023944239
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 48dd4f2fefcf59dea1c1a2975104728119aa7cc0e72bbfcfcaf28db38ec977c6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  14. Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+42.6 c/l (firxa +25.5–+59.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+35.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -7.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07429860165461383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.351395908515313
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4256945101699268
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.25468338869050183
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.5967056316493498
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07429860165461383
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.351395908515313
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4256945101699268
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.25468338869050183
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.5967056316493498
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 28c6cc0064fcc7f70d17a1a6c85fca06d8c511fccabefd7579be467c7ab1d7b4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  15. Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) b’+32.4 c/l (firxa +19.1–+45.6); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+46.2 c/l, u jibqa’ +13.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.13861054678796125
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.46213260642908616
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.3235220596411249
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1906360009812883
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.45640811830096134
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.13861054678796125
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.46213260642908616
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.3235220596411249
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1906360009812883
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.45640811830096134
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 148edd2cdfc75b0c15798e0a18f47a0987517061d214f81848823e6aae6fede5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  16. Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) b’+45.8 c/l (firxa +14.1–+77.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.9 c/l, u jibqa’ -8.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07961215525715815
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.37857444713979194
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4581866023969501
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1409528887037786
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.7754203160901194
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Poland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07961215525715815
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.37857444713979194
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4581866023969501
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1409528887037786
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.7754203160901194
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 65b1a453475f056abf7d69217a2c4fd953ace91b57db34ebb126a8ab3f94735d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  17. Il-Polonja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet konsiderevoli (0%–45%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    45.3198558414965
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    45.3198558414965
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b8cc13f9c93659c2e424c9c531b3e080d12db057b47e14f50897fb823ad5327e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  18. Il-Polonja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatBaxxa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6b91e3ff4390567aee518883851be529573c02dbf8ec065b14af808c13b53e55 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  19. L-evidenza disponibbli turi tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Polonja, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -11.6%.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -11.590611436901764
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_tonnes
    1862117
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2106243.5
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    baseline_not_published_months
    0
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Poland
    change_pct
    -11.590611436901764
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    value_tonnes
    1862117
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    2106243.5
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    baseline_not_published_months
    0

    Mudell event.supply.reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 356d4bb7554ccf71e9ec12f9604cbef145c4a210f17ebcb7e7a4d2fc1f3321dc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  20. Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Polonja) kienu 0.2% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 91.6 (kif ippubblikati).

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    91.551
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    0.6887272643771216
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    11312889
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    11336444.75
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -0.2077878075487467
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -0.2077878075487467
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -0.2
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Poland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PL
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    days_of_cover
    91.551
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    0.6887272643771216
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    11312889
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    11336444.75
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -0.2077878075487467
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4dfa9d0c3ac5415cb6d99ed8d0c4bb30a573765e6fe77ab35304d5badf0ff58d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  21. Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn

    Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Polonja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet konsiderevoli (0–45%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

    pajjiż: il-PolonjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    0–45%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Poland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PL
    country_name
    Poland
    country_slug
    poland
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–45%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f18740191a11b26828ac49b4f68f2d171216fff325fd6ffb7583e5c3b632ff08 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  22. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  23. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  24. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  25. Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  26. Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  27. Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  28. Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

  • Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
  • Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
  • Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
  • Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Polonja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

  • UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
  • IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
  • IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
  • Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.