Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Ir-Rumanija, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 273; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 13; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	728,000	+201,000	+38.14%	+0.97
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	527,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	527,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	527,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	527,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	527,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	318,000	-209,000	-39.66%	-1.01
+3	2026-03-01	318,000	-209,000	-39.66%	-1.01
+7	2026-03-01	318,000	-209,000	-39.66%	-1.01
+14	2026-03-01	318,000	-209,000	-39.66%	-1.01
+30	2026-03-01	318,000	-209,000	-39.66%	-1.01
+60	2026-04-01	486,000	-41,000	-7.78%	-0.20
+90	2026-05-01	568,000	+41,000	+7.78%	+0.20

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 39.18%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7560	-0.022	-2.87%	-1.09
−14	2026-02-09	0.7701	-0.008	-1.05%	-0.40
−7	2026-02-16	0.7730	-0.005	-0.69%	-0.26
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7864	+0.008	+1.04%	+0.40
+7	2026-03-02	0.7864	+0.008	+1.04%	+0.40
+14	2026-03-09	0.8353	+0.057	+7.32%	+2.80
+30	2026-03-30	1.049	+0.270	+34.74%	+13.27
+60	2026-04-27	1.108	+0.329	+42.31%	+16.16
+90	2026-05-25	1.156	+0.378	+48.53%	+18.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.62%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6639	-0.013	-1.99%	-1.55
−14	2026-02-09	0.6734	-0.004	-0.58%	-0.45
−7	2026-02-16	0.6745	-0.003	-0.42%	-0.33
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6819	+0.005	+0.68%	+0.53
+7	2026-03-02	0.6819	+0.005	+0.68%	+0.53
+14	2026-03-09	0.7093	+0.032	+4.72%	+3.67
+30	2026-03-30	0.8598	+0.182	+26.94%	+20.94
+60	2026-04-27	0.8561	+0.179	+26.39%	+20.51
+90	2026-05-25	0.8396	+0.162	+23.95%	+18.61

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.29%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	0–30.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	0–39.29	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	0–39.29	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	0–39.29	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	0–39.29	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	0–39.29	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–55.70	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–55.70	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–55.70	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–55.70	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–55.70	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0–44.44	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0–65.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	92.32	+0.191	+0.21%	+0.09
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	92.13	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	92.13	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	92.13	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	92.13	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	92.13	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	90.77	-1.366	-1.48%	-0.65
+3	2026-03-01	90.77	-1.366	-1.48%	-0.65
+7	2026-03-01	90.77	-1.366	-1.48%	-0.65
+14	2026-03-01	90.77	-1.366	-1.48%	-0.65
+30	2026-03-01	90.77	-1.366	-1.48%	-0.65
+60	2026-04-01	91.06	-1.070	-1.16%	-0.51
+90	2026-05-01	90.93	-1.204	-1.31%	-0.57

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.29%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	2,424,000	-160,000	-6.19%	-1.34
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,584,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,584,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,584,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,584,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,584,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	2,524,000	-60,000	-2.32%	-0.50
+3	2026-03-01	2,524,000	-60,000	-2.32%	-0.50
+7	2026-03-01	2,524,000	-60,000	-2.32%	-0.50
+14	2026-03-01	2,524,000	-60,000	-2.32%	-0.50
+30	2026-03-01	2,524,000	-60,000	-2.32%	-0.50
+60	2026-04-01	2,591,000	+7,000	+0.27%	+0.06
+90	2026-05-01	2,516,000	-68,000	-2.63%	-0.57

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.62%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	-0.0077	-0.008	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	-0.0058	-0.006	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	-0.0044	-0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	0.0131	+0.013	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	0.0131	+0.013	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.0232	+0.023	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.0805	+0.081	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.1359	-0.136	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	-0.1295	-0.130	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	-0.0071	-0.007	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	-0.0108	-0.011	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	-0.0078	-0.008	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	0.0140	+0.014	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	0.0140	+0.014	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.0336	+0.034	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.0583	+0.058	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.0457	-0.046	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	0.0521	+0.052	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.571	-0.036	-2.25%	-1.35
−14	2026-02-09	1.591	-0.016	-1.02%	-0.61
−7	2026-02-16	1.596	-0.012	-0.72%	-0.43
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.607	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.607	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.607	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.607	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.633	+0.026	+1.59%	+0.95
+7	2026-03-02	1.633	+0.026	+1.59%	+0.95
+14	2026-03-09	1.704	+0.097	+6.03%	+3.60
+30	2026-03-30	2.032	+0.425	+26.41%	+15.78
+60	2026-04-27	1.771	+0.163	+10.14%	+6.06
+90	2026-05-25	1.820	+0.212	+13.21%	+7.89

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.67%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.521	-0.025	-1.61%	-1.06
−14	2026-02-09	1.529	-0.017	-1.11%	-0.73
−7	2026-02-16	1.533	-0.013	-0.82%	-0.54
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.546	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.568	+0.022	+1.45%	+0.96
+7	2026-03-02	1.568	+0.022	+1.45%	+0.96
+14	2026-03-09	1.625	+0.079	+5.12%	+3.39
+30	2026-03-30	1.837	+0.291	+18.84%	+12.46
+60	2026-04-27	1.707	+0.161	+10.43%	+6.89
+90	2026-05-25	1.785	+0.239	+15.45%	+10.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7483	-0.030	-3.85%	-1.80
−14	2026-02-09	0.7643	-0.014	-1.80%	-0.84
−7	2026-02-16	0.7686	-0.010	-1.25%	-0.58
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7783	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7996	+0.021	+2.73%	+1.27
+7	2026-03-02	0.7996	+0.021	+2.73%	+1.27
+14	2026-03-09	0.8585	+0.080	+10.31%	+4.81
+30	2026-03-30	1.129	+0.351	+45.09%	+21.05
+60	2026-04-27	0.9718	+0.193	+24.85%	+11.61
+90	2026-05-25	1.027	+0.248	+31.89%	+14.89

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.14%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6568	-0.021	-3.04%	-1.64
−14	2026-02-09	0.6627	-0.015	-2.17%	-1.17
−7	2026-02-16	0.6667	-0.011	-1.57%	-0.85
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6774	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6959	+0.019	+2.74%	+1.48
+7	2026-03-02	0.6959	+0.019	+2.74%	+1.48
+14	2026-03-09	0.7429	+0.066	+9.68%	+5.23
+30	2026-03-30	0.9182	+0.241	+35.55%	+19.19
+60	2026-04-27	0.8104	+0.133	+19.64%	+10.60
+90	2026-05-25	0.8917	+0.214	+31.64%	+17.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.85%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8229	-0.006	-0.75%	-0.40
−14	2026-02-09	0.8268	-0.002	-0.28%	-0.15
−7	2026-02-16	0.8273	-0.002	-0.22%	-0.12
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8292	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8292	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8292	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8292	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8336	+0.004	+0.53%	+0.28
+7	2026-03-02	0.8336	+0.004	+0.53%	+0.28
+14	2026-03-09	0.8459	+0.017	+2.02%	+1.08
+30	2026-03-30	0.9028	+0.074	+8.88%	+4.75
+60	2026-04-27	0.7988	-0.030	-3.67%	-1.96
+90	2026-05-25	0.7933	-0.036	-4.33%	-2.32

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.87%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8644	-0.004	-0.49%	-0.26
−14	2026-02-09	0.8662	-0.002	-0.28%	-0.15
−7	2026-02-16	0.8666	-0.002	-0.23%	-0.12
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8686	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8686	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8686	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8686	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8724	+0.004	+0.44%	+0.23
+7	2026-03-02	0.8724	+0.004	+0.44%	+0.23
+14	2026-03-09	0.8823	+0.014	+1.57%	+0.83
+30	2026-03-30	0.9191	+0.050	+5.81%	+3.06
+60	2026-04-27	0.8968	+0.028	+3.24%	+1.71
+90	2026-05-25	0.8931	+0.024	+2.82%	+1.49

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.90%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–55.70 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	90.77 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-1.48% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.65 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	2,524,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-2.32% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.50 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.129 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+45.09% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +21.05 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	2.032 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+26.41% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +15.78 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: ir-Rumanija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'romania'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+2.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.6959476635901904
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.3138629361787566
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.7442758589811462
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.481546690322078
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018588601227052637
change_pct_from_t0
2.7442758589811462
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
change_in_volatility_units
1.481546690322078
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.6959476635901904
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.3138629361787566
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.7442758589811462
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.481546690322078
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.018588601227052637
change_pct_from_t0
2.7442758589811462
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.481546690322078
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 75b7460a08bd4d042ca6042cb72d3d7e63ac52851713c773ccfa3511cb4e2d48 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+35.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9181912862575421
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
14.070731389179846
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
35.55458799860157
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.194783936426095
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.24083222389440428
change_pct_from_t0
35.55458799860157
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
change_in_volatility_units
19.194783936426095
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9181912862575421
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
14.070731389179846
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
35.55458799860157
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.194783936426095
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.24083222389440428
change_pct_from_t0
35.55458799860157
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.194783936426095
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità fefba4c17177f31ed0a406ae91c11fdc588237c92e86c8373bb9a3146015d213 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+31.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8916991553391587
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
12.669276110018433
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
31.64349676348042
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.08331097499695
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21434009297602086
change_pct_from_t0
31.64349676348042
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
change_in_volatility_units
17.08331097499695
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8916991553391587
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
12.669276110018433
t0_value
0.6773590623631378
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
31.64349676348042
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.08331097499695
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21434009297602086
change_pct_from_t0
31.64349676348042
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8523046738301305
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.08331097499695
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a2f936b50cbe10ae094d73651cd6c91049bb1cd692e7adb518a3651ad63e1c7b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+1.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5683910075329566
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.572950076923604
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.4484139990193399
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9574160645031654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.022392459395853548
change_pct_from_t0
1.4484139990193399
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
change_in_volatility_units
0.9574160645031654
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5683910075329566
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.572950076923604
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.4484139990193399
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9574160645031654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.022392459395853548
change_pct_from_t0
1.4484139990193399
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.9574160645031654
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 24447c4ec1f6f705cf9803b7da6fcdfc8da36376cf16340cc17875107a1f2885 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+18.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.837305790960452
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
9.774490367374685
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.842659533824808
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.455185428932543
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.29130724282334897
change_pct_from_t0
18.842659533824808
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
change_in_volatility_units
12.455185428932543
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.837305790960452
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
9.774490367374685
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.842659533824808
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.455185428932543
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.29130724282334897
change_pct_from_t0
18.842659533824808
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
12.455185428932543
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 55da66ca6e77bbdfcf67c77f02b5cb754e8aa5059d80e860a496e5c20e648ce7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+15.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’10.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.784825837448285
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
8.369076745848114
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.44809272938607
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.211342996589808
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23882728931118202
change_pct_from_t0
15.44809272938607
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
change_in_volatility_units
10.211342996589808
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.784825837448285
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
8.369076745848114
t0_value
1.545998548137103
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.44809272938607
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.211342996589808
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23882728931118202
change_pct_from_t0
15.44809272938607
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.512836532329306
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
10.211342996589808
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0d9a32bd62a0ed2325b65f51e1ce73264c52a2cb7d4cb8db89cc1a9ca3568623 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+2.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7995561515255275
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.6077790776045044
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.7289768795132052
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2742067187035846
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.021240066022898962
change_pct_from_t0
2.7289768795132052
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
change_in_volatility_units
1.2742067187035846
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7995561515255275
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.6077790776045044
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.7289768795132052
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2742067187035846
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.021240066022898962
change_pct_from_t0
2.7289768795132052
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2742067187035846
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 349cda79cc6a81ee990e0f3fcb7574064008abd45ae790edb4a761cf3e95997d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+45.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.1292445999543457
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
16.955140025053158
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
45.08817445615185
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.052452022369735
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.35092851445171713
change_pct_from_t0
45.08817445615185
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
change_in_volatility_units
21.052452022369735
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.1292445999543457
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
16.955140025053158
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
45.08817445615185
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.052452022369735
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.35092851445171713
change_pct_from_t0
45.08817445615185
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.052452022369735
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b12a1c92a646b7e64d6393d0b8bdc03fa7e6eae25a7d1fe0aec95bf7b54d5cb9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+31.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’14.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0265100792223076
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
12.484345680482921
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
31.88858592835043
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.889334807082994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2481939937196791
change_pct_from_t0
31.88858592835043
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
change_in_volatility_units
14.889334807082994
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0265100792223076
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
12.484345680482921
t0_value
0.7783160855026285
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
31.88858592835043
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.889334807082994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2481939937196791
change_pct_from_t0
31.88858592835043
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.1417065531484143
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
14.889334807082994
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5cef48a283ad1b543bd24648caa4372f843b75d85fc64654fc021e0858be6596 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+1.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6331077369742626
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.905870144125282
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.5930999941917843
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9520687231372077
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.025609061308661696
change_pct_from_t0
1.5930999941917843
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
change_in_volatility_units
0.9520687231372077
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6331077369742626
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
2.905870144125282
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.5930999941917843
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.9520687231372077
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.025609061308661696
change_pct_from_t0
1.5930999941917843
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.9520687231372077
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d5e0c4b8c6a1addae5c51be8c625d8c69ab9fa73b4fbd1e87c01b9bb7c861fa4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+26.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.0320307595731326
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
13.250639840436701
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.409482653648222
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.782840073092233
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4245320839075317
change_pct_from_t0
26.409482653648222
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
change_in_volatility_units
15.782840073092233
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.0320307595731326
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
13.250639840436701
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.409482653648222
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.782840073092233
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4245320839075317
change_pct_from_t0
26.409482653648222
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.782840073092233
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3927a853473276aa51e5fe67c9440d3326fc554f95360ceb94d793f6ea49f1da · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) inbidel b’+13.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.8197956187679931
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
7.7470125020339635
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
13.20666363936434
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.892568849333964
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21229694310239222
change_pct_from_t0
13.20666363936434
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
change_in_volatility_units
7.892568849333964
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.8197956187679931
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
z_score
7.7470125020339635
t0_value
1.607498675665601
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
13.20666363936434
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.892568849333964
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21229694310239222
change_pct_from_t0
13.20666363936434
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6733035709253041
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
7.892568849333964
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e9ddc838d3da84c8639b584afed909bafca439a6d670bc8d6b8570cd7997f5e4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) b’+14.4 c/l (firxa +9.2–+19.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+20.3 c/l, u jibqa’ +5.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.058939927749440485
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20250682273409104
expected_eur_per_litre
0.14356689498465056
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.09208945795883901
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.19504433201046253
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.058939927749440485
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20250682273409104
expected_eur_per_litre
0.14356689498465056
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.09208945795883901
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.19504433201046253
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d530e89bfb107bb64975975df337f82d566797b8bc5b0b7f045b3a86635a3d5f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, ir-Rumanija) b’+16.2 c/l (firxa -3.2–+35.6); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+21.4 c/l, u jibqa’ +5.2 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.0521418191196627
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.21434009297602086
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16219827385635815
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.03180875046406138
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3562052981767787
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.0521418191196627
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.21434009297602086
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16219827385635815
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.03180875046406138
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3562052981767787
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a86a51995a960a4faf482cd00a2ff7a47c7698c493dac9b9eeb6fee68135d985 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) b’+22.0 c/l (firxa +18.0–+26.1); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+26.2 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.2 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.041610404025074266
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.26202120264643103
expected_eur_per_litre
0.22041079862135676
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18001579119757752
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.26080580604513703
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.041610404025074266
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.26202120264643103
expected_eur_per_litre
0.22041079862135676
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18001579119757752
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.26080580604513703
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c004637ed90c9ce5b9dfa947d558252f7e8cf68c0e481e60d47e2b2ec4a66f51 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, ir-Rumanija) b’+37.8 c/l (firxa +27.0–+48.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+24.8 c/l, u jibqa’ -13.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1295092632077945
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2481939937196791
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3777032569274736
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2702701168707959
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.48513639698415734
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Romania
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1295092632077945
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2481939937196791
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3777032569274736
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.2702701168707959
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.48513639698415734
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b169e567fe6b8c1c62f64f3f21d1c9c583d96e82dc1f76777f8351d7b15d5235 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Ir-Rumanija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatBaxxa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 751abf7557568c7305e8f35245e4ac646939bedf462b355e0d2567033650d8ee · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Ir-Rumanija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet konsiderevoli (0%–39%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Romania
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_max_pct
39.2857142857143
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Romania
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_max_pct
39.2857142857143
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità be96689a8540bd306e2fc1cf168bff8ffb9d031d72b7a52c82f18594ba570582 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli turi tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (ir-Rumanija, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -27.9%.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Romania
change_pct
-27.915194346289756
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_tonnes
527000
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
731083.3333333334
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Romania
change_pct
-27.915194346289756
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
value_tonnes
527000
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
731083.3333333334
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 83ce1daeed2642f82f9e43a1184f7e9eb1b85d4259b0f3b513848bd3a09e8d9c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (ir-Rumanija) kienu 1.3% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 92.1 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_RO
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
days_of_cover
92.131
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
6.600660066006601
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
2584000
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
2551250
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.2836844683978441
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
1.2836844683978441
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
1.3
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Romania
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_RO
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
days_of_cover
92.131
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
6.600660066006601
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
2584000
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
2551250
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.2836844683978441
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 52e44d1403b82562669d2e23fbc6b9bd325d067548dc2c723e9bf2b2d457c02f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (ir-Rumanija) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0–0%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: ir-RumanijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Romania
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
dependence_band
limited
dependence_range
0–0%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Romania
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
RO
country_name
Romania
country_slug
romania
dependence_band
limited
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
0–0%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ed778469337a423256ddc0ce85d6ed19662a7f3f11bc270c671fb5f1ae8c1d35 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Ir-Rumanija: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: ir-Rumanija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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