Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

L-Estonja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 273; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 13; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6856	-0.027	-3.72%	-1.10
−14	2026-02-09	0.7004	-0.012	-1.65%	-0.49
−7	2026-02-16	0.7052	-0.007	-0.98%	-0.29
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7440	+0.032	+4.48%	+1.33
+7	2026-03-02	0.7440	+0.032	+4.48%	+1.33
+14	2026-03-09	0.8335	+0.121	+17.04%	+5.05
+30	2026-03-30	1.101	+0.389	+54.57%	+16.16
+60	2026-04-27	1.132	+0.420	+58.93%	+17.45
+90	2026-05-25	1.152	+0.440	+61.76%	+18.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.38%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.5828	-0.015	-2.53%	-1.22
−14	2026-02-09	0.5912	-0.007	-1.13%	-0.55
−7	2026-02-16	0.5930	-0.005	-0.84%	-0.40
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6005	+0.003	+0.42%	+0.20
+7	2026-03-02	0.6005	+0.003	+0.42%	+0.20
+14	2026-03-09	0.6577	+0.060	+9.99%	+4.82
+30	2026-03-30	0.7623	+0.164	+27.47%	+13.25
+60	2026-04-27	0.7873	+0.189	+31.65%	+15.26
+90	2026-05-25	0.8201	+0.222	+37.14%	+17.91

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	82.58	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	81.65	-0.928	-1.12%	-0.11
+3	2026-03-01	81.65	-0.928	-1.12%	-0.11
+7	2026-03-01	81.65	-0.928	-1.12%	-0.11
+14	2026-03-01	81.65	-0.928	-1.12%	-0.11
+30	2026-03-01	81.65	-0.928	-1.12%	-0.11
+60	2026-04-01	76.40	-6.186	-7.49%	-0.74
+90	2026-05-01	75.47	-7.114	-8.61%	-0.86

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 10.06%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	556,000	-126,000	-18.48%	-1.56
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	682,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	682,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	682,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	682,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	682,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	559,000	-123,000	-18.04%	-1.52
+3	2026-03-01	559,000	-123,000	-18.04%	-1.52
+7	2026-03-01	559,000	-123,000	-18.04%	-1.52
+14	2026-03-01	559,000	-123,000	-18.04%	-1.52
+30	2026-03-01	559,000	-123,000	-18.04%	-1.52
+60	2026-04-01	543,000	-139,000	-20.38%	-1.72
+90	2026-05-01	512,000	-170,000	-24.93%	-2.10

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 11.85%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.0257	+0.026	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	0.0306	+0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	0.0463	+0.046	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	-0.0015	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	-0.0015	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.1221	+0.122	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.1204	+0.120	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.0721	-0.072	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	-0.1268	-0.127	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	-0.0119	-0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	0.0043	+0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	0.0157	+0.016	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	0.0163	+0.016	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	0.0163	+0.016	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.0501	+0.050	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.0628	+0.063	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	0.0230	+0.023	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	0.0482	+0.048	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.390	-0.001	-0.07%	-0.03
−14	2026-02-09	1.414	+0.023	+1.65%	+0.70
−7	2026-02-16	1.439	+0.048	+3.45%	+1.46
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.391	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.391	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.391	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.391	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.428	+0.037	+2.66%	+1.12
+7	2026-03-02	1.428	+0.037	+2.66%	+1.12
+14	2026-03-09	1.688	+0.297	+21.35%	+9.01
+30	2026-03-30	2.012	+0.621	+44.64%	+18.84
+60	2026-04-27	1.815	+0.424	+30.48%	+12.86
+90	2026-05-25	1.802	+0.411	+29.55%	+12.47

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.37%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.420	-0.033	-2.27%	-1.22
−14	2026-02-09	1.450	-0.003	-0.21%	-0.11
−7	2026-02-16	1.466	+0.013	+0.89%	+0.48
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.453	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.453	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.453	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.453	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.476	+0.023	+1.58%	+0.85
+7	2026-03-02	1.476	+0.023	+1.58%	+0.85
+14	2026-03-09	1.587	+0.134	+9.22%	+4.96
+30	2026-03-30	1.730	+0.277	+19.06%	+10.25
+60	2026-04-27	1.712	+0.259	+17.83%	+9.58
+90	2026-05-25	1.812	+0.359	+24.71%	+13.28

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.86%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7113	-0.001	-0.12%	-0.03
−14	2026-02-09	0.7310	+0.019	+2.65%	+0.71
−7	2026-02-16	0.7515	+0.039	+5.52%	+1.49
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7122	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7425	+0.030	+4.26%	+1.15
+7	2026-03-02	0.7425	+0.030	+4.26%	+1.15
+14	2026-03-09	0.9556	+0.243	+34.18%	+9.19
+30	2026-03-30	1.221	+0.509	+71.47%	+19.22
+60	2026-04-27	1.060	+0.348	+48.80%	+13.12
+90	2026-05-25	1.025	+0.313	+43.96%	+11.82

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.72%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.5709	-0.027	-4.52%	-1.36
−14	2026-02-09	0.5955	-0.002	-0.41%	-0.12
−7	2026-02-16	0.6086	+0.011	+1.78%	+0.54
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5980	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6168	+0.019	+3.15%	+0.95
+7	2026-03-02	0.6168	+0.019	+3.15%	+0.95
+14	2026-03-09	0.7078	+0.110	+18.37%	+5.53
+30	2026-03-30	0.8250	+0.227	+37.97%	+11.43
+60	2026-04-27	0.8103	+0.212	+35.50%	+10.69
+90	2026-05-25	0.8683	+0.270	+45.20%	+13.61

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.32%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.6787	-0.000	-0.03%	-0.03
−14	2026-02-09	0.6830	+0.004	+0.61%	+0.65
−7	2026-02-16	0.6875	+0.009	+1.28%	+1.36
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6788	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6788	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6788	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6788	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.6855	+0.007	+0.98%	+1.05
+7	2026-03-02	0.6855	+0.007	+0.98%	+1.05
+14	2026-03-09	0.7324	+0.054	+7.89%	+8.44
+30	2026-03-30	0.7908	+0.112	+16.50%	+17.65
+60	2026-04-27	0.7553	+0.076	+11.26%	+12.05
+90	2026-05-25	0.7768	+0.098	+14.43%	+15.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8491	-0.006	-0.70%	-1.03
−14	2026-02-09	0.8545	-0.001	-0.06%	-0.09
−7	2026-02-16	0.8574	+0.002	+0.27%	+0.41
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8550	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8550	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8550	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8550	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8592	+0.004	+0.49%	+0.72
+7	2026-03-02	0.8592	+0.004	+0.49%	+0.72
+14	2026-03-09	0.8792	+0.024	+2.83%	+4.18
+30	2026-03-30	0.9050	+0.050	+5.84%	+8.63
+60	2026-04-27	0.9017	+0.047	+5.46%	+8.07
+90	2026-05-25	0.9437	+0.089	+10.37%	+15.33

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.68%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Xejn ippubblikat fit-tieqa	mhux ippubblikat
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	81.65 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-1.12% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.11 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	559,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-18.04% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.52 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.221 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+71.47% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +19.22 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	2.012 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+44.64% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +18.84 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Estonja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2026-02-23. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) b’+16.3 c/l (firxa +11.1–+21.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+26.6 c/l, u jibqa’ +10.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) b’+22.2 c/l (firxa +6.6–+37.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+27.0 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+3.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.6168360655737705
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
-0.12098612158809564
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
3.1526715464539277
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.949110480227484
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.01885245901639343
change_pct_from_t0
3.1526715464539277
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
change_in_volatility_units
0.949110480227484
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.6168360655737705
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
-0.12098612158809564
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
3.1526715464539277
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.949110480227484
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.01885245901639343
change_pct_from_t0
3.1526715464539277
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.949110480227484
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 32f5e6107be00dc286f4378eb07d41d425e9410f336ea8fbe0af8d5e84f7acd3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+38.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.825032786885246
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
4.9506692687000875
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
37.969131233379954
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.430591435783189
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22704918032786892
change_pct_from_t0
37.969131233379954
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
change_in_volatility_units
11.430591435783189
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.825032786885246
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
4.9506692687000875
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
37.969131233379954
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.430591435783189
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22704918032786892
change_pct_from_t0
37.969131233379954
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
11.430591435783189
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ccb013afb58219d624cb8d1e29fc797fc6e18de494830429845a77da6a1139cf · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+45.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8682903225806451
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
6.004419359951223
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
45.20303116325178
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.608354052406133
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.27030671602326806
change_pct_from_t0
45.20303116325178
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
change_in_volatility_units
13.608354052406133
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8682903225806451
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
6.004419359951223
t0_value
0.597983606557377
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
45.20303116325178
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.608354052406133
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.27030671602326806
change_pct_from_t0
45.20303116325178
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.3217118682519358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
13.608354052406133
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 599c805ff4f8aa430e1d8e3d98734ef123a3ec83dc59acdbae1e39afe19a46b6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+1.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.476
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
0.20049119136495247
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.5829318651066695
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.8507449105533639
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.02299999999999991
change_pct_from_t0
1.5829318651066695
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
change_in_volatility_units
0.8507449105533639
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.476
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
0.20049119136495247
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.5829318651066695
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.8507449105533639
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.02299999999999991
change_pct_from_t0
1.5829318651066695
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.8507449105533639
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità dca17f840667c3b2f93b3402b64d58ac78c3ae6a71fc8ec769296ca00bc7232b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+19.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’10.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.73
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
6.7479606693690695
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
19.06400550584996
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.245927835794898
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2769999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
19.06400550584996
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
change_in_volatility_units
10.245927835794898
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.73
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
6.7479606693690695
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
19.06400550584996
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.245927835794898
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2769999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
19.06400550584996
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
10.245927835794898
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8be1c3acaef7bdb2b52bda9d834f9de3f043df2e874f86ccdaeba8af11c03795 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+24.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.812
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
8.861710658331031
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
24.70750172057811
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.279018386463427
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.359
change_pct_from_t0
24.70750172057811
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
change_in_volatility_units
13.279018386463427
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.812
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
8.861710658331031
t0_value
1.453
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
24.70750172057811
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.279018386463427
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.359
change_pct_from_t0
24.70750172057811
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.8606421801301842
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
13.279018386463427
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 99df2708c233f4784a3718b747f85f0e933c25be9af82fffc30578226aa47b41 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+4.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7424918032786886
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
0.5606349144821986
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.258551632061148
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.145180312825009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.030327868852459083
change_pct_from_t0
4.258551632061148
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
change_in_volatility_units
1.145180312825009
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7424918032786886
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
0.5606349144821986
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.258551632061148
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.145180312825009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.030327868852459083
change_pct_from_t0
4.258551632061148
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.145180312825009
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ceec4b15d90c84433b4c6be35c1c3121e56e8fde3434b92afb3db2b1c712db05 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+71.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2211803278688524
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
13.055463651662832
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
71.47460982459371
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.220458763900787
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.509016393442623
change_pct_from_t0
71.47460982459371
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
change_in_volatility_units
19.220458763900787
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2211803278688524
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
13.055463651662832
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
71.47460982459371
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.220458763900787
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.509016393442623
change_pct_from_t0
71.47460982459371
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.220458763900787
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8fa6ca4ff4ff7e42419c3e6a667830f748bfdaac79c0467386d5d120f1d302d1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+44.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0252258064516129
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
7.940617442468969
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
43.95924265353434
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.821216132387166
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3130618720253834
change_pct_from_t0
43.95924265353434
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
change_in_volatility_units
11.821216132387166
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0252258064516129
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
7.940617442468969
t0_value
0.7121639344262295
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
43.95924265353434
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.821216132387166
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3130618720253834
change_pct_from_t0
43.95924265353434
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.7186734563711297
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
11.821216132387166
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 377637277882d5dc5d39267f199cc234aca02e1eb7f09763137b8904205e60a6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+2.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.428
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
1.0130699363835527
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.6599568655643364
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.122574051959008
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03699999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
2.6599568655643364
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
change_in_volatility_units
1.122574051959008
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.428
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
1.0130699363835527
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.6599568655643364
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.122574051959008
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03699999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
2.6599568655643364
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.122574051959008
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ea16e96a30f68a7010bf094e360171ec955d9772b339b6a2fe1bed9eb2956512 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+44.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’18.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.012
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
16.097193408428815
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
44.64414090582315
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
18.841040169366096
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.621
change_pct_from_t0
44.64414090582315
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
change_in_volatility_units
18.841040169366096
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.012
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
16.097193408428815
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
44.64414090582315
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
18.841040169366096
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.621
change_pct_from_t0
44.64414090582315
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
18.841040169366096
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 109e12a2e36da0581dce00c9fb5058ae57b96846143e6938214d10c9b8f9d03a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Estonja) inbidel b’+29.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.802
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
10.673107913344047
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
29.5470884255931
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.469673928517658
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.41100000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
29.5470884255931
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
change_in_volatility_units
12.469673928517658
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.802
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
z_score
10.673107913344047
t0_value
1.391
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
29.5470884255931
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_EE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.469673928517658
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.41100000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
29.5470884255931
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.3695157223012915
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
12.469673928517658
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9d3e748b3941b214af75243e63ce1440c0695aa6e113225078e1694602a1f865 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) b’+16.3 c/l (firxa +11.1–+21.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+26.6 c/l, u jibqa’ +10.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10299637248154672
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2655737704918033
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16257739801025659
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.1107822631519924
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.21437253286852082
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.10299637248154672
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2655737704918033
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16257739801025659
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.1107822631519924
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.21437253286852082
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2860753f5ad504f41f92300b63c5fbbd709758ac3dc9f8711d78b85f562e2f7d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Estonja) b’+22.2 c/l (firxa +6.6–+37.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+27.0 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.04821719735636065
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27030671602326806
expected_eur_per_litre
0.2220895186669074
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.06624519892121003
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3779338384126074
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.04821719735636065
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.27030671602326806
expected_eur_per_litre
0.2220895186669074
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.06624519892121003
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3779338384126074
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità dac11b3003ce03d17e20c04b116793f37db5bbda91dcee133ad15602959332cc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Estonja) b’+33.1 c/l (firxa +25.1–+41.0); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+47.8 c/l, u jibqa’ +14.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_DIESEL
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.14719347892222867
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.47786885245901656
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3306753735367879
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.25135199965118493
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.4099987474223875
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_DIESEL
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.14719347892222867
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.47786885245901656
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3306753735367879
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.25135199965118493
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.4099987474223875
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7d2681f1f868e0cb19618f117cbcf6effdbc9927ff4c53e794bd836f3ce9361c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Estonja) b’+44.0 c/l (firxa +18.5–+69.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+31.3 c/l, u jibqa’ -12.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_DIESEL
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12677873021402436
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.3130618720253834
expected_eur_per_litre
0.43984060223940774
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18524694993126098
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6944342545475521
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Estonia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_EE_DIESEL
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12677873021402436
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.3130618720253834
expected_eur_per_litre
0.43984060223940774
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18524694993126098
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6944342545475521
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e01738754c0d170a0bb33c5aaebd5a377b873a3c3156ea83d5251c7eab67b585 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Estonja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) hija MHUX MAGĦRUFA: is-sors jirrapporta żero importazzjonijiet għal dan il-perjodu: m’hemm l-ebda volum li minnu jittieħed sehem – dan huwa żero rrappurtat, mhux data nieqsa.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Estonia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Estonia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 372366fd37102020682c138d833bd0ceb26083717ef13cee73f153a7be3c682d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Estonja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 00cb6c9a49f58ed90d5476faf680a1863850de2ac28b59b3a8e2fc6558e266b7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Jekk il-provvista taż-żejt mhux maħdum (l-Estonja, Frar 2026) naqset fiżikament huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum fix-xhur ippubblikati mix-xhur ta’ qabel (12) ugwali għal żero, u l-oħrajn mhumiex ippubblikati; ma tistax tiġi kkalkulata bidla perċentwali.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Estonia
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_tonnes
0
missing_reason
zero_baseline_partial
baseline_months
11
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
1
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
11
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Estonia
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
value_tonnes
0
missing_reason
zero_baseline_partial
baseline_months
11
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
1
Mudell event.supply.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e19d50aa19c314567ec625090681519753658baea70132d61998763c48a57c60 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (l-Estonja) kienu 8.5% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 82.6 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: l-EstonjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_EE
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
days_of_cover
82.582
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
22.66187050359712
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
682000
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
628691.6666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
8.479249234521427
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
8.479249234521427
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
8.5
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Estonia
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_EE
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
days_of_cover
82.582
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
22.66187050359712
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
682000
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
628691.6666666666
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
8.479249234521427
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f0a06b2107e599a00d22c9b3b169e621a315b06a5748e665f4d8b09bd212777d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (l-Estonja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: l-EstonjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Estonia
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
dependence_band
null
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Estonia
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
EE
country_name
Estonia
country_slug
estonia
dependence_band
null
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1ef568994dfa67d3a210a042ef2ac89c81948ae1e77e8bab5968a318f35b2e1a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

L-Estonja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Estonja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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