Fuel Origin

Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati
28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data
jum
Status
Għadu għaddej
Ambitu
L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat
Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1
Dokumenti tas-sors (7)
PajjiżPajjiżIl-ĠermanjaFranzaIn-NetherlandsIl-PolonjaIl-FinlandjaL-EstonjaL-AwstrijaIl-BelġjuIl-BulgarijaIl-KroazjaĊipruIċ-ĊekjaId-DanimarkaIl-GreċjaL-UngerijaL-IrlandaL-ItaljaIl-LatvjaIl-LitwanjaIl-LussemburguMaltaIl-PortugallIr-RumanijaIs-SlovakkjaIs-SlovenjaSpanjaL-Iżvezja
KarburantKarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Ġermanja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 271; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 15; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+907,183,6135,936,3152026-01-01: 6,797,959 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 6,057,021 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 6,440,927 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 6,331,222 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 7,062,907 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-016,797,959+740,938+12.23%+1.41
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T06,057,0210.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T06,057,0210.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T06,057,0210.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T06,057,0210.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T06,057,0210.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-016,440,927+383,906+6.34%+0.73
+32026-03-016,440,927+383,906+6.34%+0.73
+72026-03-016,440,927+383,906+6.34%+0.73
+142026-03-016,440,927+383,906+6.34%+0.73
+302026-03-016,440,927+383,906+6.34%+0.73
+602026-04-016,331,222+274,201+4.53%+0.52
+902026-05-017,062,907+1,005,886+16.61%+1.91

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.70%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3750.7332026-01-26: 0.7950 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.8099 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.8158 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8241 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8599 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9788 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.213 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.257 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.313 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7950-0.029-3.53%-0.41
−142026-02-090.8099-0.014-1.73%-0.20
−72026-02-160.8158-0.008-1.01%-0.12
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8599+0.036+4.35%+0.50
+72026-03-020.8599+0.036+4.35%+0.50
+142026-03-090.9788+0.155+18.78%+2.16
+302026-03-301.213+0.388+47.14%+5.42
+602026-04-271.257+0.433+52.59%+6.05
+902026-05-251.313+0.489+59.35%+6.83

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.69%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0290.6762026-01-26: 0.7103 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.7205 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.7244 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7301 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7531 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8338 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9907 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9906 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.9946 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7103-0.020-2.70%-1.42
−142026-02-090.7205-0.010-1.31%-0.69
−72026-02-160.7244-0.006-0.77%-0.41
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7531+0.023+3.15%+1.66
+72026-03-020.7531+0.023+3.15%+1.66
+142026-03-090.8338+0.104+14.21%+7.48
+302026-03-300.9907+0.261+35.70%+18.79
+602026-04-270.9906+0.261+35.69%+18.78
+902026-05-250.9946+0.265+36.24%+19.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.90%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 1.186 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 1.177 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 1.178 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 1.156 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 1.171 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 1.164 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+906.2770.0002026-01-01: 0.5329 sa 1.523 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-02-01: 2.082 sa 3.248 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-03-01: 1.547 sa 5.396 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-04-01: 2.350 sa 5.662 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-05-01: 1.500 sa 3.332 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-010.5329–1.523mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-012.082–3.248mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-012.082–3.248mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-012.082–3.248mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-012.082–3.248mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-012.082–3.248mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-011.547–5.396mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-011.547–5.396mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-011.547–5.396mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-011.547–5.396mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-011.547–5.396mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-012.350–5.662mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-011.500–3.332mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+906.6740.0002026-01-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 5.959 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 sa 0.0283 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.2026-05-01: 0 sa 3.899 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-015.959+5.959mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-015.959+5.959mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-015.959+5.959mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-015.959+5.959mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-015.959+5.959mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-010–0.0283mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-010–3.899mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+9095.9192.012026-01-01: 95.45 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 95.53 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 95.17 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 93.42 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 92.39 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0195.45-0.080-0.08%-0.05
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T095.530.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T095.530.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T095.530.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T095.530.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T095.530.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0195.17-0.359-0.38%-0.21
+32026-03-0195.17-0.359-0.38%-0.21
+72026-03-0195.17-0.359-0.38%-0.21
+142026-03-0195.17-0.359-0.38%-0.21
+302026-03-0195.17-0.359-0.38%-0.21
+602026-04-0193.42-2.112-2.21%-1.26
+902026-05-0192.39-3.142-3.29%-1.87

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.76%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+9031,714,62430,804,9152026-01-01: 31,626,588 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 31,330,209 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 31,108,595 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 31,054,744 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 30,892,951 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0131,626,588+296,379+0.95%+0.53
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T031,330,2090.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T031,330,2090.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T031,330,2090.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T031,330,2090.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T031,330,2090.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0131,108,595-221,614-0.71%-0.40
+32026-03-0131,108,595-221,614-0.71%-0.40
+72026-03-0131,108,595-221,614-0.71%-0.40
+142026-03-0131,108,595-221,614-0.71%-0.40
+302026-03-0131,108,595-221,614-0.71%-0.40
+602026-04-0131,054,744-275,465-0.88%-0.49
+902026-05-0130,892,951-437,258-1.40%-0.78

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.78%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.253-0.2242026-01-26: 0.1080 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: -0.0017 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: -0.0101 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0306 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.2066 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.0763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: -0.0569 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: -0.1781 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.1080+0.108mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-09-0.0017-0.002mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-16-0.0101-0.010mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-020.0306+0.031mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-020.0306+0.031mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-090.2066+0.207mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-300.0763+0.076mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-27-0.0569-0.057mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-25-0.1781-0.178mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.121-0.0212026-01-26: -0.0063 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: -0.0072 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: -0.0070 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0308 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.1072 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: -0.0001 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.0084 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.0447 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-26-0.0063-0.006mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-09-0.0072-0.007mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-16-0.0070-0.007mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-020.0308+0.031mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-020.0308+0.031mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-090.1072+0.107mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-30-0.0001-0.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-270.0084+0.008mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-250.0447+0.045mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.3571.6252026-01-26: 1.696 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.711 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.733 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.812 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 2.163 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.286 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 2.181 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.936 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.696-0.037-2.14%-1.66
−142026-02-091.714-0.019-1.10%-0.85
−72026-02-161.711-0.022-1.27%-0.99
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7330.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7330.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7330.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7330.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.812+0.079+4.56%+3.54
+72026-03-021.812+0.079+4.56%+3.54
+142026-03-092.163+0.430+24.81%+19.26
+302026-03-302.286+0.553+31.91%+24.77
+602026-04-272.181+0.448+25.85%+20.07
+902026-05-251.936+0.203+11.71%+9.09

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.29%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.1861.7512026-01-26: 1.793 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.804 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.809 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.824 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.888 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 2.075 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.134 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 2.144 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 2.025 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.793-0.031-1.70%-1.80
−142026-02-091.804-0.020-1.10%-1.16
−72026-02-161.809-0.015-0.82%-0.87
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8240.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8240.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8240.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.8240.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.888+0.064+3.51%+3.71
+72026-03-021.888+0.064+3.51%+3.71
+142026-03-092.075+0.251+13.76%+14.56
+302026-03-302.134+0.310+17.00%+17.98
+602026-04-272.144+0.320+17.54%+18.57
+902026-05-252.025+0.201+11.02%+11.66

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3470.7482026-01-26: 0.9030 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.8081 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.8056 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8241 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8905 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.185 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.289 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.201 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.135 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.9030+0.079+9.57%+3.72
−142026-02-090.8081-0.016-1.94%-0.75
−72026-02-160.8056-0.018-2.24%-0.87
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8905+0.066+8.06%+3.13
+72026-03-020.8905+0.066+8.06%+3.13
+142026-03-091.185+0.361+43.85%+17.04
+302026-03-301.289+0.465+56.39%+21.92
+602026-04-271.201+0.376+45.68%+17.76
+902026-05-251.135+0.311+37.74%+14.67

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.57%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0800.6642026-01-26: 0.7040 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.7133 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.7175 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7301 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7839 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9410 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9906 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9990 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.039 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7040-0.026-3.57%-1.99
−142026-02-090.7133-0.017-2.30%-1.28
−72026-02-160.7175-0.013-1.73%-0.96
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.73010.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7839+0.054+7.37%+4.11
+72026-03-020.7839+0.054+7.37%+4.11
+142026-03-090.9410+0.211+28.89%+16.12
+302026-03-300.9906+0.261+35.68%+19.90
+602026-04-270.9990+0.269+36.83%+20.55
+902026-05-251.039+0.309+42.37%+23.63

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.79%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0220.7692026-01-26: 0.7930 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.9059 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.9054 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.9089 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.9215 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9776 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9972 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9804 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.8009 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7930-0.116-12.75%-8.39
−142026-02-090.9059-0.003-0.33%-0.22
−72026-02-160.9054-0.004-0.39%-0.25
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.90890.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.90890.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.90890.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.90890.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.9215+0.013+1.39%+0.91
+72026-03-020.9215+0.013+1.39%+0.91
+142026-03-090.9776+0.069+7.55%+4.97
+302026-03-300.9972+0.088+9.71%+6.39
+602026-04-270.9804+0.072+7.87%+5.18
+902026-05-250.8009-0.108-11.88%-7.81

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1640.9662026-01-26: 1.089 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.091 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.092 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.094 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.104 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.134 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.143 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.145 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.9856 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.089-0.005-0.45%-0.88
−142026-02-091.091-0.003-0.29%-0.57
−72026-02-161.092-0.002-0.22%-0.43
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.104+0.010+0.93%+1.83
+72026-03-021.104+0.010+0.93%+1.83
+142026-03-091.134+0.040+3.66%+7.17
+302026-03-301.143+0.049+4.52%+8.85
+602026-04-271.145+0.051+4.67%+9.14
+902026-05-250.9856-0.108-9.90%-19.37

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Sors
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Mhux magħruf
Perjodu 2026-01Aġġornat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCKunfidenzaMhux magħrufaMetodoloġijaNiżżel is-CSV

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
DimensjoniStatusĊifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Firxa biss
1.547–5.396 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Osservat
5.959 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.Osservat
95.17 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.38% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.21 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.Osservat
121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.Mhux disponibbliIl-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.Mhux disponibbliM’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.Mhux disponibbliIn-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.Osservat
31,108,595 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.71% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.40 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.Mhux disponibbliIs-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.Osservat
1.289 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+56.39% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +21.92 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.Osservat
2.286 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+31.91% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +24.77 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Ġermanja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

2026-03-232026-05-25-200204060c/l mill-ġimgħa ta’ referenza
  • Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
  • X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
  • Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2026-02-23. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: il-kampjun kollu (2005-01-03 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+24.2 c/l (firxa +18.8–+29.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+25.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +1.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+26.5 c/l (firxa +13.3–+39.6); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+30.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

  1. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+7.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7838546218487396
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    4.207865246191953
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.366592732165656
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.1090348961189385
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05378151260504205
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.366592732165656
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.1090348961189385
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7838546218487396
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    4.207865246191953
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    7.366592732165656
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.1090348961189385
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.05378151260504205
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.366592732165656
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.1090348961189385

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 79951fbcf4959f7d3b58b8f5d5a0c1f03ddd6bcbc22d934061cf4f239b79183d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  2. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+35.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9905773109243696
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    12.188563343434453
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    35.68193354642735
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.903137778076083
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2605042016806721
    change_pct_from_t0
    35.68193354642735
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.903137778076083
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9905773109243696
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    12.188563343434453
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    35.68193354642735
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.903137778076083
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2605042016806721
    change_pct_from_t0
    35.68193354642735
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.903137778076083

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 712f6507866d4ff559cd944a2c6bb1e63b4483c26f73883de91650879d99cbcf · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  3. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+42.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’23.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0393806722689076
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    14.07265693162737
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    42.366656038821944
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    23.631830131623023
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3093075630252101
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.366656038821944
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    change_in_volatility_units
    23.631830131623023
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0393806722689076
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    14.07265693162737
    t0_value
    0.7300731092436975
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    42.366656038821944
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    23.631830131623023
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3093075630252101
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.366656038821944
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.7927793066745534
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    23.631830131623023

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 49e55799d79afd84a538e9e8b007617e5191001dda1ea21b3403c38d8a00d21d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  4. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+3.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.8880000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    3.2528628929848544
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.5087719298245643
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.713005246741137
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06400000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.5087719298245643
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.713005246741137
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.8880000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    3.2528628929848544
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.5087719298245643
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.713005246741137
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06400000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.5087719298245643
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.713005246741137

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3eac20b47193ba4638b80f6781faf84bed119ef9a99c1e6dfbce2e851fbe2070 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  5. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+17.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’18.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.134
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    8.779983725731174
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    16.99561403508771
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.984869163902356
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30999999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    16.99561403508771
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.984869163902356
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.134
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    8.779983725731174
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    16.99561403508771
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.984869163902356
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30999999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    16.99561403508771
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.984869163902356

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 06c9a7411bb2ea6cb207e4e73911c57a298cdd3954d15e4f2b205993b947b1b5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  6. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+11.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.025
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.330974901465527
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.019736842105253
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    11.661157103046364
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20099999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.019736842105253
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    change_in_volatility_units
    11.661157103046364
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.025
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.330974901465527
    t0_value
    1.824
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.019736842105253
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    11.661157103046364
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20099999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.019736842105253
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9449951445407123
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    11.661157103046364

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7e87e2a05fd7c878761fe25d22bfdfb160a51d742cb364defa8719d3a229c3bc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  7. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+8.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.890489075630252
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    2.151230267361193
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.055618436965295
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.1309151991208157
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06638655462184873
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.055618436965295
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.1309151991208157
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.890489075630252
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    2.151230267361193
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    8.055618436965295
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.1309151991208157
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06638655462184873
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.055618436965295
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.1309151991208157

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 00c15bc07850566553c6982e04e89bbcbf7c36573a7cafdfb8d33a6b8c2ffda8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  8. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+56.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2888084033613445
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    9.354819240814832
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    56.38932905875707
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.916406393845712
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4647058823529412
    change_pct_from_t0
    56.38932905875707
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.916406393845712
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2888084033613445
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    9.354819240814832
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    56.38932905875707
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.916406393845712
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4647058823529412
    change_pct_from_t0
    56.38932905875707
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.916406393845712

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3c15f4a2262eb147bcd7dddd01036ff30422fb4fd861c68f843cbc1853ed3718 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  9. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+37.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’14.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.135090756302521
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.574841794865395
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    37.73659555289075
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.666792066200447
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3109882352941177
    change_pct_from_t0
    37.73659555289075
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.666792066200447
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.135090756302521
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.574841794865395
    t0_value
    0.8241025210084033
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    37.73659555289075
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.666792066200447
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3109882352941177
    change_pct_from_t0
    37.73659555289075
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5729276983379723
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.666792066200447

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 57a58fcc60011a674517d4f7ec75979835e48243565bc8e04d8a579446b2c7ee · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  10. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+4.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.812
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    3.6197147380959724
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.558568955568376
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.538577109573103
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.558568955568376
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.538577109573103
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.812
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    3.6197147380959724
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.558568955568376
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.538577109573103
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07899999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.558568955568376
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.538577109573103

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2b25e1706ea677e56b76ade7097d037cfea80053170d1e150023c46e088fa01f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  11. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+31.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’24.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.286
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    13.562859021880529
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.909982688978648
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    24.770039767011735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5529999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.909982688978648
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    change_in_volatility_units
    24.770039767011735
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.286
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    13.562859021880529
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.909982688978648
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    24.770039767011735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5529999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.909982688978648
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    24.770039767011735

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 386f5cb07d019337eb939e4e7de60b890aaaee26331e9406e1cdcf7f097033fe · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  12. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+11.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.936
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.2208748460902425
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.713791113675697
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.092799408143541
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20299999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.713791113675697
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.092799408143541
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.936
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    6.2208748460902425
    t0_value
    1.733
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.713791113675697
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.092799408143541
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20299999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.713791113675697
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2882491505514557
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.092799408143541

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e05824d7a687821faf6ad7118f777442c1c0cae0201d8d1ef2d8d10738bf4d0a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  13. Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+24.2 c/l (firxa +18.8–+29.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+25.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +1.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.015023612945131354
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2571428571428571
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.24211924419772576
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.18750939279487155
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2967290956005781
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.015023612945131354
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2571428571428571
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.24211924419772576
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.18750939279487155
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2967290956005781
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 74802e729c1214dee98ad2d0215e0c80190f68a772eca0f60ce3db35d0b45aca · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  14. Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+26.5 c/l (firxa +13.3–+39.6); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+30.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.04474049980459177
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3093075630252101
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.26456706322061835
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1326929214095542
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.39644120503167896
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.04474049980459177
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3093075630252101
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.26456706322061835
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1326929214095542
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.39644120503167896
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5a1fa182ce3a3cf6e59f979ce0b85c8e3d25c74d68d82c559d89b031402ed008 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  15. Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) b’+35.9 c/l (firxa +26.9–+44.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+47.4 c/l, u jibqa’ +11.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.11543352462792444
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.473949579831933
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.35851605520400853
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2692230610941366
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.44780904931388005
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.11543352462792444
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.473949579831933
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.35851605520400853
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2692230610941366
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.44780904931388005
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a75d479ad5246590dabed423d3f4c5090fb4e337b94dde3e2af71a4f4ed7ef06 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  16. Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) b’+48.9 c/l (firxa +28.4–+69.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+31.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -17.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.17814687754671377
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3109882352941177
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.48913511284083144
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.28354950534556467
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6947207203361
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.17814687754671377
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3109882352941177
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.48913511284083144
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.28354950534556467
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6947207203361
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 72068e03dc1822dca036432ebd77ff8ea6e0545daef026d8efd1ed9e37d596d7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  17. Il-Ġermanja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (2%–3%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    3.24825454625302
    value_min_pct
    2.0823226632366
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    3.24825454625302
    value_min_pct
    2.0823226632366
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9e9f7a3af05375fe87ed699ca7fad393cc576e2d1917339a91807bcf10571ba7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  18. Il-Ġermanja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatBaxxa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 45777af06d39331958bc296425fbcabed2c176d0e4e267e72000718ed8fb172d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  19. L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Ġermanja, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -9.3%.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Germany
    change_pct
    -9.271448663713281
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_tonnes
    6057021
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    6675981.166666667
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    baseline_not_published_months
    0
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Germany
    change_pct
    -9.271448663713281
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_tonnes
    6057021
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    6675981.166666667
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    baseline_not_published_months
    0

    Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 650eaa6d42f4c3cb4b227cab74b4b7d697651c62789f0929ba2675e09ccb484f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  20. Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Ġermanja) kienu 5.0% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 95.5 (kif ippubblikati).

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_DE
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    days_of_cover
    95.528
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.937119742414199
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    31330209
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    29851700.25
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    4.952846027589333
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    4.952846027589333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    5
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_DE
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    days_of_cover
    95.528
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.937119742414199
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    31330209
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    29851700.25
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    4.952846027589333
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6a0fc3dcf7372ba2511e6a14c43756cfc9b17f8e2e96e99a8f909ee1f8f5d434 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  21. Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn

    Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Ġermanja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (2–3%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

    pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Germany
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    2–3%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Germany
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    2–3%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4987e88e0712283827deefd618105e454f0330c313f681768e548455a84a40ca · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  22. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  23. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  24. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  25. Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  26. Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  27. Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  28. Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

  • Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
  • Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
  • Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
  • Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Ġermanja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

  • UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
  • IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
  • IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
  • Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.