Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)

Dati: 05/12/2022 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Sixth package of EU sanctions, adopted 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014). European Commission, 3 June 2022: "a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products"; "For seaborne crude oil, spot market transactions and execution of existing contracts will be permitted for six months after entry into force, while for petroleum products, these will be permitted for eight months." Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Temporary derogations apply to pipeline crude for certain member states and to Bulgaria and Croatia, so reported imports from Russia do not fall to zero. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (3)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Belġju, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 260; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	99.53	+16.170	+19.40%	+4.30
−14	2022-11-21	88.44	+5.080	+6.09%	+1.35
−7	2022-11-28	83.50	+0.140	+0.17%	+0.04
−3	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
−1	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	83.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	79.92	-3.440	-4.13%	-0.91
+3	2022-12-08	76.02	-7.340	-8.81%	-1.95
+7	2022-12-12	78.00	-5.360	-6.43%	-1.42
+14	2022-12-19	81.66	-1.700	-2.04%	-0.45
+30	2023-01-04	75.31	-8.050	-9.66%	-2.14
+60	2023-02-03	78.85	-4.510	-5.41%	-1.20
+90	2023-03-03	85.74	+2.380	+2.86%	+0.63

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 760). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	2,433,900	+140,200	+6.11%	+0.26
−14	2022-11-01	2,433,900	+140,200	+6.11%	+0.26
−7	2022-11-01	2,433,900	+140,200	+6.11%	+0.26
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,293,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	2,616,000	+322,300	+14.05%	+0.60
+60	2023-02-01	2,279,200	-14,500	-0.63%	-0.03
+90	2023-03-01	2,573,400	+279,700	+12.19%	+0.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 23.29%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.112	+0.088	+8.60%	+0.26
−14	2022-11-21	1.095	+0.071	+6.97%	+0.21
−7	2022-11-28	1.055	+0.031	+3.03%	+0.09
−3	2022-11-28	1.055	+0.031	+3.03%	+0.09
−1	2022-11-28	1.055	+0.031	+3.03%	+0.09
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.9948	-0.029	-2.81%	-0.08
+14	2022-12-19	0.9840	-0.040	-3.87%	-0.12
+30	2023-01-02	0.9898	-0.034	-3.30%	-0.10
+60	2023-01-30	1.022	-0.001	-0.14%	-0.00
+90	2023-02-27	1.032	+0.008	+0.81%	+0.02

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 33.15%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.7678	-0.047	-5.77%	-0.27
−14	2022-11-21	0.7957	-0.019	-2.35%	-0.11
−7	2022-11-28	0.8004	-0.014	-1.78%	-0.08
−3	2022-11-28	0.8004	-0.014	-1.78%	-0.08
−1	2022-11-28	0.8004	-0.014	-1.78%	-0.08
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.8206	+0.006	+0.70%	+0.03
+14	2022-12-19	0.8212	+0.006	+0.78%	+0.04
+30	2023-01-02	0.8317	+0.017	+2.06%	+0.10
+60	2023-01-30	0.8589	+0.044	+5.41%	+0.25
+90	2023-02-27	0.8805	+0.066	+8.05%	+0.37

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 21.62%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	0.9872	-0.072	-6.75%	-13.43
−14	2022-11-21	1.025	-0.034	-3.22%	-6.40
−7	2022-11-28	1.046	-0.012	-1.17%	-2.33
−3	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
−1	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.059	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	1.052	-0.007	-0.67%	-1.33
+3	2022-12-08	1.052	-0.007	-0.64%	-1.28
+7	2022-12-12	1.056	-0.002	-0.24%	-0.47
+14	2022-12-19	1.060	+0.001	+0.10%	+0.21
+30	2023-01-04	1.060	+0.001	+0.11%	+0.23
+60	2023-02-03	1.094	+0.035	+3.31%	+6.57
+90	2023-03-03	1.062	+0.003	+0.26%	+0.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.50%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 770). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	8.302–20.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	8.302–20.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	8.302–20.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	7.622–27.40	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	12.42–28.95	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	7.115–18.61	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	7.949–17.12	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	0–2.487	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	0–2.487	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	0–2.487	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	0–7.232	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	0–4.099	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	0–5.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	2.029–9.478	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	109.0	-1.000	-0.91%	-0.22
−14	2022-11-01	109.0	-1.000	-0.91%	-0.22
−7	2022-11-01	109.0	-1.000	-0.91%	-0.22
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	108.0	-2.000	-1.82%	-0.44
+60	2023-02-01	108.0	-2.000	-1.82%	-0.44
+90	2023-03-01	108.0	-2.000	-1.82%	-0.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.15%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.13%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	7,473,900	-57,800	-0.77%	-0.28
−14	2022-11-01	7,473,900	-57,800	-0.77%	-0.28
−7	2022-11-01	7,473,900	-57,800	-0.77%	-0.28
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,531,700	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	7,159,700	-372,000	-4.94%	-1.82
+60	2023-02-01	7,403,500	-128,200	-1.70%	-0.63
+90	2023-03-01	7,210,100	-321,600	-4.27%	-1.58

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.71%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.1871	+0.187	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	0.0035	+0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	-0.0121	-0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	-0.0121	-0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	-0.0121	-0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0097	-0.010	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.0159	-0.016	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	0.0068	+0.007	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.0327	-0.033	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.1524	-0.152	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.1887	+0.189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	0.1186	+0.119	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	0.0492	+0.049	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	0.0492	+0.049	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	0.0492	+0.049	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0268	-0.027	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.0814	-0.081	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	-0.0376	-0.038	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.0307	-0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.0658	-0.066	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	2.123	+0.333	+18.60%	+6.64
−14	2022-11-21	1.880	+0.091	+5.06%	+1.81
−7	2022-11-28	1.813	+0.023	+1.28%	+0.46
−3	2022-11-28	1.813	+0.023	+1.28%	+0.46
−1	2022-11-28	1.813	+0.023	+1.28%	+0.46
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.790	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.790	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.790	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.743	-0.047	-2.60%	-0.93
+14	2022-12-19	1.723	-0.067	-3.75%	-1.34
+30	2023-01-02	1.757	-0.033	-1.83%	-0.65
+60	2023-01-30	1.748	-0.041	-2.30%	-0.82
+90	2023-02-27	1.684	-0.105	-5.89%	-2.10

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.80%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.831	+0.118	+6.91%	+1.99
−14	2022-11-21	1.833	+0.120	+7.03%	+2.03
−7	2022-11-28	1.754	+0.042	+2.45%	+0.71
−3	2022-11-28	1.754	+0.042	+2.45%	+0.71
−1	2022-11-28	1.754	+0.042	+2.45%	+0.71
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.712	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.712	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.712	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.687	-0.026	-1.49%	-0.43
+14	2022-12-19	1.621	-0.091	-5.30%	-1.53
+30	2023-01-02	1.687	-0.025	-1.47%	-0.42
+60	2023-01-30	1.728	+0.016	+0.95%	+0.27
+90	2023-02-27	1.712	-0.000	-0.01%	-0.00

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.47%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.299	+0.275	+26.88%	+5.78
−14	2022-11-21	1.098	+0.075	+7.32%	+1.57
−7	2022-11-28	1.042	+0.019	+1.85%	+0.40
−3	2022-11-28	1.042	+0.019	+1.85%	+0.40
−1	2022-11-28	1.042	+0.019	+1.85%	+0.40
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.9851	-0.039	-3.76%	-0.81
+14	2022-12-19	0.9681	-0.055	-5.42%	-1.17
+30	2023-01-02	0.9965	-0.027	-2.64%	-0.57
+60	2023-01-30	0.9895	-0.034	-3.33%	-0.72
+90	2023-02-27	0.8795	-0.144	-14.08%	-3.03

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.65%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.9565	+0.142	+17.38%	+2.17
−14	2022-11-21	0.9144	+0.099	+12.21%	+1.52
−7	2022-11-28	0.8496	+0.035	+4.26%	+0.53
−3	2022-11-28	0.8496	+0.035	+4.26%	+0.53
−1	2022-11-28	0.8496	+0.035	+4.26%	+0.53
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8149	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.7938	-0.021	-2.59%	-0.32
+14	2022-12-19	0.7398	-0.075	-9.21%	-1.15
+30	2023-01-02	0.7941	-0.021	-2.55%	-0.32
+60	2023-01-30	0.8283	+0.013	+1.64%	+0.21
+90	2023-02-27	0.8147	-0.000	-0.02%	-0.00

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.01%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.8239	+0.058	+7.54%	+4.02
−14	2022-11-21	0.7819	+0.016	+2.05%	+1.09
−7	2022-11-28	0.7701	+0.004	+0.52%	+0.28
−3	2022-11-28	0.7701	+0.004	+0.52%	+0.28
−1	2022-11-28	0.7701	+0.004	+0.52%	+0.28
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7661	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7661	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7661	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.7581	-0.008	-1.06%	-0.56
+14	2022-12-19	0.7545	-0.012	-1.52%	-0.81
+30	2023-01-02	0.7605	-0.006	-0.74%	-0.40
+60	2023-01-30	0.7590	-0.007	-0.93%	-0.50
+90	2023-02-27	0.8049	+0.039	+5.05%	+2.69

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.88%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.8740	-0.023	-2.60%	-1.32
−14	2022-11-21	0.9182	+0.021	+2.33%	+1.18
−7	2022-11-28	0.9046	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.41
−3	2022-11-28	0.9046	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.41
−1	2022-11-28	0.9046	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.41
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8973	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8973	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8973	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.8929	-0.004	-0.49%	-0.25
+14	2022-12-19	0.8816	-0.016	-1.76%	-0.89
+30	2023-01-02	0.8930	-0.004	-0.49%	-0.25
+60	2023-01-30	0.9001	+0.003	+0.31%	+0.16
+90	2023-02-27	0.8973	-0.000	-0.00%	-0.00

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.97%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	102.1	+58.716	+135.30%	+13.75
−14	2022-11-21	61.92	+18.524	+42.69%	+4.34
−7	2022-11-28	50.19	+6.790	+15.65%	+1.59
−3	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
−1	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	43.40	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	42.43	-0.970	-2.24%	-0.23
+3	2022-12-08	43.18	-0.220	-0.51%	-0.05
+7	2022-12-12	45.31	+1.916	+4.42%	+0.45
+14	2022-12-19	47.36	+3.968	+9.14%	+0.93
+30	2023-01-04	52.92	+9.520	+21.94%	+2.23
+60	2023-02-03	39.25	-4.142	-9.54%	-0.97
+90	2023-03-03	36.90	-6.496	-14.97%	-1.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.84%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	36.21	+16.548	+84.15%	+0.46
−14	2022-11-21	25.46	+5.798	+29.48%	+0.16
−7	2022-11-28	21.75	+2.086	+10.61%	+0.06
−3	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
−1	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	19.67	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	20.42	+0.752	+3.82%	+0.02
+3	2022-12-08	14.66	-5.008	-25.47%	-0.14
+7	2022-12-12	13.81	-5.854	-29.77%	-0.16
+14	2022-12-19	13.89	-5.776	-29.37%	-0.16
+30	2023-01-04	25.20	+5.530	+28.12%	+0.15
+60	2023-02-03	24.34	+4.678	+23.79%	+0.13
+90	2023-03-03	25.60	+5.936	+30.18%	+0.17

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	51.50	+24.486	+90.64%	+0.51
−14	2022-11-21	42.81	+15.794	+58.46%	+0.33
−7	2022-11-28	30.74	+3.724	+13.78%	+0.08
−3	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
−1	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	27.02	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	27.60	+0.584	+2.16%	+0.01
+3	2022-12-08	35.20	+8.180	+30.28%	+0.17
+7	2022-12-12	36.79	+9.770	+36.16%	+0.21
+14	2022-12-19	36.02	+9.008	+33.34%	+0.19
+30	2023-01-04	53.97	+26.950	+99.76%	+0.57
+60	2023-02-03	29.38	+2.368	+8.77%	+0.05
+90	2023-03-03	39.71	+12.698	+47.00%	+0.27

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/12/2022. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	12.42–28.95 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–4.099 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	108.0 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)-1.82% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.44 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	75.31 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-04)-9.66% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.14 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	7,159,700 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)-4.94% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.82 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.9965 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)-2.64% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.57 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.757 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)-1.83% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.65 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (28/11/2022 – 04/01/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Belġju, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022' and country 'belgium'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.79376
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.3758991681324497
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.5894018604422855
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.32339385931612247
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.021100000000000008
change_pct_from_t0
-2.5894018604422855
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
change_in_volatility_units
-0.32339385931612247
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.79376
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.3758991681324497
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.5894018604422855
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.32339385931612247
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.021100000000000008
change_pct_from_t0
-2.5894018604422855
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.32339385931612247
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 03b8c88b3207ce6850d0c71ea7b2fdd829bcc92d77412528b9f65d760dcf08da · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.7940499999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.3686892941841258
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.553812924919631
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.3189491095909261
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.020810000000000106
change_pct_from_t0
-2.553812924919631
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
change_in_volatility_units
-0.3189491095909261
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.7940499999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.3686892941841258
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.553812924919631
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.3189491095909261
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.020810000000000106
change_pct_from_t0
-2.553812924919631
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.3189491095909261
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 93560c1a77b4abd503b39f543fcb4d6945d08245ad9333b5bb48521f9793e726 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-0.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.81469
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.855545162137699
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.02086247944432215
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.0026055429423574375
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00017000000000000348
change_pct_from_t0
-0.02086247944432215
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
change_in_volatility_units
-0.0026055429423574375
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.81469
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.855545162137699
t0_value
0.81486
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.02086247944432215
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.0026055429423574375
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00017000000000000348
change_pct_from_t0
-0.02086247944432215
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
8.006960509139121
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.0026055429423574375
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità e1a59cc17f4e72341a75e2f9b15b7604dc9e1b888155d5bd69b7bd1119820556 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.6866400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.742215518151755
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4916655959069662
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.42979646001445015
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.025539999999999896
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4916655959069662
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
change_in_volatility_units
-0.42979646001445015
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.6866400000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.742215518151755
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4916655959069662
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.42979646001445015
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.025539999999999896
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4916655959069662
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.42979646001445015
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 72f99e180d54199e5567fa4101b0fa5e65f1d3f625bac5d7bdff4cab8dcc68d1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.687
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.7373660871477019
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4706397691831454
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.4237382483619378
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02517999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4706397691831454
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
change_in_volatility_units
-0.4237382483619378
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.687
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.7373660871477019
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4706397691831454
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.4237382483619378
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02517999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4706397691831454
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.4237382483619378
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità a235bc022795f69c365c7bda82d277dbb1fcbe5b413389a73adeb2eec6503148 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-0.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.71197
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.40100416444983156
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.012265065588900902
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.003533956797300454
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00021000000000004349
change_pct_from_t0
-0.012265065588900902
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
change_in_volatility_units
-0.003533956797300454
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.71197
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-0.40100416444983156
t0_value
1.71218
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.012265065588900902
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.003533956797300454
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00021000000000004349
change_pct_from_t0
-0.012265065588900902
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.4706325777015823
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.003533956797300454
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità a75fd01eb9e6b7c276d1a1d1c1d740ece6fe3ea5b062374b5859443a30c2baa2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-3.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.98505
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.4745989717243577
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.7614185921547536
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8091791864068005
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.03849999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-3.7614185921547536
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8091791864068005
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.98505
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.4745989717243577
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.7614185921547536
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8091791864068005
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.03849999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-3.7614185921547536
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8091791864068005
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 405dd30b3542e1718aee08f50b12aa5b7b31da8708279243944e214f0fefa114 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.99654
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.3473998298317342
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.6388549655610354
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5676864889570825
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02700999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-2.6388549655610354
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5676864889570825
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.99654
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.3473998298317342
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.6388549655610354
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.5676864889570825
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.02700999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-2.6388549655610354
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.5676864889570825
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 5f4af0d2db3a67a74fdc253704e863b0964efb5e666e978300799c75c2308a6a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-14.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.87948
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.643303358983214
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.075521469395724
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.028011568457864
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14406999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
-14.075521469395724
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
change_in_volatility_units
-3.028011568457864
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.87948
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.643303358983214
t0_value
1.02355
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.075521469395724
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.028011568457864
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14406999999999992
change_pct_from_t0
-14.075521469395724
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.6484371513033045
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.028011568457864
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 170172085f2d8ce8dab2f55dd8c671ade76fdc97a36d6f680d21f70d4a1faeae · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-2.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7430999999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.474672305293796
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.6032441372528274
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.9295247018775953
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.04659000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
-2.6032441372528274
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
change_in_volatility_units
-0.9295247018775953
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7430999999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.474672305293796
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.6032441372528274
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.9295247018775953
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.04659000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
-2.6032441372528274
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.9295247018775953
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 2f0a2b2e258cb7ffc0014dd7f923f779b1df41aa554ac39df3dc87fddb0461ba · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-1.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.7 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7570000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.347496832239935
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-1.8265733171666538
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.6522035308945783
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.032689999999999886
change_pct_from_t0
-1.8265733171666538
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
change_in_volatility_units
-0.6522035308945783
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7570000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-2.347496832239935
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-1.8265733171666538
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.6522035308945783
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.032689999999999886
change_pct_from_t0
-1.8265733171666538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.6522035308945783
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 8fbd378dce04ab42fd6fa07ad9b9d46b1d928e0f1a911ce0b5da397b88cc63d5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Belġju) inbidel b’-5.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.6843299999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.0123775248171976
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-5.887053065055966
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1020545737244745
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.10536000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
-5.887053065055966
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1020545737244745
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.6843299999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
z_score
-3.0123775248171976
t0_value
1.78969
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-5.887053065055966
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1020545737244745
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.10536000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
-5.887053065055966
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.8006185655899185
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1020545737244745
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 1589b4e9b5261159f2cd1647d034be913ecb95936b8154388ead5d4058d2f718 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) b’+1.7 c/l (firxa +0.5–+2.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-2.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -3.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03760492911652158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.020810000000000106
expected_eur_per_litre
0.016794929116521473
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.005055183370677785
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.028534674862364717
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03760492911652158
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.020810000000000106
expected_eur_per_litre
0.016794929116521473
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.005055183370677785
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.028534674862364717
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 49031132d956f3a28baf2b4baa746dad1fe754436d0a4c6d3ee9f844e1a1b23f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Belġju) b’+6.7 c/l (firxa +2.6–+10.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-1.3 c/l, u jibqa’ -8.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07962956457630721
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.012950000000000017
expected_eur_per_litre
0.0666795645763072
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.02575079338794861
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.107608335764664
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07962956457630721
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.012950000000000017
expected_eur_per_litre
0.0666795645763072
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.02575079338794861
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.107608335764664
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Marka tal-identità d4bc716bbeaf09a909f494e7de8543b497cfd0143ed849793b2ca501f33bb593 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) b’-3.4 c/l (firxa -5.7–-1.1); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-2.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +0.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’12.6 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
0.00678746768850743
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.02700999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.03379746768850741
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.05680516506527165
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.010789770311743763
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
0.00678746768850743
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.02700999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.03379746768850741
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.05680516506527165
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.010789770311743763
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Marka tal-identità f74c992c84f019ea9c94026295da3f927fd744c945571c02c29c721e0240290e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Belġju) b’+1.2 c/l (firxa -6.2–+8.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-12.6 c/l, u jibqa’ -13.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.13817951104531512
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12576999999999994
expected_eur_per_litre
0.01240951104531518
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.062356964509763614
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08717598660039344
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Belgium
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BE_DIESEL
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.13817951104531512
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12576999999999994
expected_eur_per_litre
0.01240951104531518
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.062356964509763614
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08717598660039344
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 74a5712c59149b67c034013417d8cf9e979bd8892f7128dd254ca34b570e9bab · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Il-Belġju, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (8%–27%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
27.3998343288137
value_min_pct
7.62199502986441
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
27.3998343288137
value_min_pct
7.62199502986441
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.1 · Marka tal-identità cd4af13fafda16c1cfc5a33998e497ff5791179bce5ab6b838b045d0e1c3be39 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Il-Belġju, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%–7%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
7.23151331507488
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Belgium
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
value_max_pct
7.23151331507488
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.1 · Marka tal-identità a2c09467e8313345750374dc48d1960329a800dfcb7b8aaf75b8a3e5a77079f4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Belġju, Diċembru 2022) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +2.9%.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Belgium
change_pct
2.8876453635068913
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
2293700
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
2229325
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Belgium
change_pct
2.8876453635068913
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
2293700
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
2229325
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 64bd2db096d8ff4c664cb3a4a6dcf9a79f6b7e5a4e0b2ca6a739ecea25e3986e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Diċembru 2022: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Belġju) kienu 0.5% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 110.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-BelġjuIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BE
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
days_of_cover
110
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.7733579523408127
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
7531700
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
7492808.333333333
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
0.5190532699688701
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
0.5190532699688701
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
0.5
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Belgium
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BE
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
days_of_cover
110
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.7733579523408127
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
7531700
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
7492808.333333333
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
0.5190532699688701
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 63969cd9ea90ef0a9abdc006a31dd3eb35290a144b06917385dbe198431aafae · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Belġju) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (8–27%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-BelġjuMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Belgium
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
8–27%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Belgium
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BE
country_name
Belgium
country_slug
belgium
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
8–27%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 68e34c196837cc202b3ad02aa660051d0f2c056d2286714290a8a939e0ccebb6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-6.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità b54773c6d8ea729448e355679535649a28ea7e4cedc8813dfcf6f2802aab32bd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-9.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità a66bdad4120941189e2864b65cefe96af6989d6c7dc9d9e481dad3f463e1452c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+2.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 95c15aae3aef102cb53ce9861989a6b3fd3d482e297b83dd1613ec9cd40b15cc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 81f14ddf9bdd5a846c68ffa6a0c2ac90cc0051c094198d9fc185147f886c0b88 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Marka tal-identità 91941020696deeb37b6bfcb5c4e321ba5865cedc68042d4a64d30524b6fb2549 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Marka tal-identità e638c4d7da43b662509013a365f2d13fca0fa20208646d67ade6d6d3b40790a0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Marka tal-identità e1f282615a660e84b280ecac2938abde9502c7d8209f04d500d682817c457aef · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 25/09/2026 14:09 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Belġju: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Belġju, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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