Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)

Dati: 05/12/2022 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Sixth package of EU sanctions, adopted 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014). European Commission, 3 June 2022: "a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products"; "For seaborne crude oil, spot market transactions and execution of existing contracts will be permitted for six months after entry into force, while for petroleum products, these will be permitted for eight months." Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Temporary derogations apply to pipeline crude for certain member states and to Bulgaria and Croatia, so reported imports from Russia do not fall to zero. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (3)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

L-Italja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 260; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	99.53	+16.170	+19.40%	+4.30
−14	2022-11-21	88.44	+5.080	+6.09%	+1.35
−7	2022-11-28	83.50	+0.140	+0.17%	+0.04
−3	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
−1	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	83.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	79.92	-3.440	-4.13%	-0.91
+3	2022-12-08	76.02	-7.340	-8.81%	-1.95
+7	2022-12-12	78.00	-5.360	-6.43%	-1.42
+14	2022-12-19	81.66	-1.700	-2.04%	-0.45
+30	2023-01-04	75.31	-8.050	-9.66%	-2.14
+60	2023-02-03	78.85	-4.510	-5.41%	-1.20
+90	2023-03-03	85.74	+2.380	+2.86%	+0.63

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 760). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	4,889,848	-569,434	-10.43%	-0.59
−14	2022-11-01	4,889,848	-569,434	-10.43%	-0.59
−7	2022-11-01	4,889,848	-569,434	-10.43%	-0.59
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	5,459,282	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	4,859,882	-599,400	-10.98%	-0.62
+60	2023-02-01	4,679,695	-779,587	-14.28%	-0.81
+90	2023-03-01	5,415,949	-43,333	-0.79%	-0.05

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 17.57%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.095	+0.016	+1.47%	+0.03
−14	2022-11-21	1.115	+0.036	+3.35%	+0.07
−7	2022-11-28	1.096	+0.017	+1.61%	+0.03
−3	2022-11-28	1.096	+0.017	+1.61%	+0.03
−1	2022-11-28	1.096	+0.017	+1.61%	+0.03
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.058	-0.021	-1.96%	-0.04
+14	2022-12-19	1.052	-0.027	-2.48%	-0.05
+30	2023-01-02	1.055	-0.024	-2.21%	-0.04
+60	2023-01-30	1.094	+0.015	+1.35%	+0.03
+90	2023-02-27	1.116	+0.037	+3.38%	+0.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 49.47%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.9631	+0.057	+6.26%	+2.51
−14	2022-11-21	0.9494	+0.043	+4.75%	+1.91
−7	2022-11-28	0.9349	+0.029	+3.15%	+1.26
−3	2022-11-28	0.9349	+0.029	+3.15%	+1.26
−1	2022-11-28	0.9349	+0.029	+3.15%	+1.26
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.9062	-0.000	-0.02%	-0.01
+14	2022-12-19	0.8990	-0.007	-0.81%	-0.33
+30	2023-01-02	0.8953	-0.011	-1.23%	-0.49
+60	2023-01-30	0.9131	+0.007	+0.74%	+0.30
+90	2023-02-27	0.9276	+0.021	+2.34%	+0.94

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.49%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	0.9872	-0.072	-6.75%	-13.43
−14	2022-11-21	1.025	-0.034	-3.22%	-6.40
−7	2022-11-28	1.046	-0.012	-1.17%	-2.33
−3	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
−1	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.059	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	1.052	-0.007	-0.67%	-1.33
+3	2022-12-08	1.052	-0.007	-0.64%	-1.28
+7	2022-12-12	1.056	-0.002	-0.24%	-0.47
+14	2022-12-19	1.060	+0.001	+0.10%	+0.21
+30	2023-01-04	1.060	+0.001	+0.11%	+0.23
+60	2023-02-03	1.094	+0.035	+3.31%	+6.57
+90	2023-03-03	1.062	+0.003	+0.26%	+0.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.50%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 770). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	13.84–21.60	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	13.84–21.60	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	13.84–21.60	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	12.31–24.19	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	20.88–27.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	14.28–23.60	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	13.75–30.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	2.690–30.18	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	2.690–30.18	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	2.690–30.18	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	0–27.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	0–29.74	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	3.626–26.85	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	8.298–32.07	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2022-11-01	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-11-01	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	92.00	+1.000	+1.10%	+0.58
+60	2023-02-01	92.00	+1.000	+1.10%	+0.58
+90	2023-03-01	92.00	+1.000	+1.10%	+0.58

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.90%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.13%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	16,735,242	-213,130	-1.26%	-0.34
−14	2022-11-01	16,735,242	-213,130	-1.26%	-0.34
−7	2022-11-01	16,735,242	-213,130	-1.26%	-0.34
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	16,948,372	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	17,556,293	+607,921	+3.59%	+0.96
+60	2023-02-01	16,928,606	-19,766	-0.12%	-0.03
+90	2023-03-01	17,156,405	+208,033	+1.23%	+0.33

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.73%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.0669	+0.067	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	0.0009	+0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	-0.0311	-0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	-0.0311	-0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	-0.0311	-0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0744	-0.074	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.1122	-0.112	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	-0.1227	-0.123	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.1435	-0.144	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.2398	-0.240	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	-0.0663	-0.066	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	-0.0368	-0.037	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	-0.0528	-0.053	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	-0.0528	-0.053	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	-0.0528	-0.053	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0898	-0.090	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.1143	-0.114	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	-0.1261	-0.126	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.1077	-0.108	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.1343	-0.134	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.866	+0.101	+5.72%	+2.54
−14	2022-11-21	1.810	+0.045	+2.56%	+1.14
−7	2022-11-28	1.748	-0.017	-0.95%	-0.42
−3	2022-11-28	1.748	-0.017	-0.95%	-0.42
−1	2022-11-28	1.748	-0.017	-0.95%	-0.42
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.765	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.765	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.765	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.770	+0.005	+0.31%	+0.14
+14	2022-12-19	1.717	-0.048	-2.69%	-1.20
+30	2023-01-02	1.891	+0.126	+7.15%	+3.18
+60	2023-01-30	1.912	+0.148	+8.37%	+3.72
+90	2023-02-27	1.822	+0.057	+3.23%	+1.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.25%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.678	-0.012	-0.69%	-0.37
−14	2022-11-21	1.697	+0.008	+0.45%	+0.24
−7	2022-11-28	1.660	-0.030	-1.75%	-0.94
−3	2022-11-28	1.660	-0.030	-1.75%	-0.94
−1	2022-11-28	1.660	-0.030	-1.75%	-0.94
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.689	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.689	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.689	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.702	+0.012	+0.72%	+0.39
+14	2022-12-19	1.663	-0.026	-1.57%	-0.84
+30	2023-01-02	1.827	+0.138	+8.15%	+4.37
+60	2023-01-30	1.871	+0.182	+10.77%	+5.78
+90	2023-02-27	1.856	+0.167	+9.89%	+5.31

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.86%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.162	+0.083	+7.66%	+2.32
−14	2022-11-21	1.116	+0.037	+3.44%	+1.04
−7	2022-11-28	1.065	-0.014	-1.27%	-0.39
−3	2022-11-28	1.065	-0.014	-1.27%	-0.39
−1	2022-11-28	1.065	-0.014	-1.27%	-0.39
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.079	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.9835	-0.096	-8.86%	-2.68
+14	2022-12-19	0.9401	-0.139	-12.88%	-3.90
+30	2023-01-02	0.9325	-0.147	-13.58%	-4.12
+60	2023-01-30	0.9501	-0.129	-11.95%	-3.62
+90	2023-02-27	0.8758	-0.203	-18.84%	-5.71

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.30%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.8968	-0.010	-1.06%	-0.38
−14	2022-11-21	0.9127	+0.006	+0.69%	+0.25
−7	2022-11-28	0.8821	-0.024	-2.68%	-0.96
−3	2022-11-28	0.8821	-0.024	-2.68%	-0.96
−1	2022-11-28	0.8821	-0.024	-2.68%	-0.96
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9064	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.8164	-0.090	-9.93%	-3.54
+14	2022-12-19	0.7847	-0.122	-13.43%	-4.79
+30	2023-01-02	0.7692	-0.137	-15.13%	-5.40
+60	2023-01-30	0.8055	-0.101	-11.14%	-3.97
+90	2023-02-27	0.7933	-0.113	-12.48%	-4.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.80%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.7038	+0.018	+2.65%	+1.03
−14	2022-11-21	0.6938	+0.008	+1.19%	+0.46
−7	2022-11-28	0.6826	-0.003	-0.44%	-0.17
−3	2022-11-28	0.6826	-0.003	-0.44%	-0.17
−1	2022-11-28	0.6826	-0.003	-0.44%	-0.17
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6856	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6856	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6856	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.7866	+0.101	+14.73%	+5.73
+14	2022-12-19	0.7771	+0.091	+13.34%	+5.18
+30	2023-01-02	0.9584	+0.273	+39.78%	+15.47
+60	2023-01-30	0.9622	+0.277	+40.35%	+15.69
+90	2023-02-27	0.9459	+0.260	+37.96%	+14.76

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.57%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.7809	-0.002	-0.27%	-0.12
−14	2022-11-21	0.7844	+0.001	+0.18%	+0.08
−7	2022-11-28	0.7777	-0.005	-0.68%	-0.30
−3	2022-11-28	0.7777	-0.005	-0.68%	-0.30
−1	2022-11-28	0.7777	-0.005	-0.68%	-0.30
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7831	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7831	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7831	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.8852	+0.102	+13.05%	+5.75
+14	2022-12-19	0.8783	+0.095	+12.16%	+5.36
+30	2023-01-02	1.058	+0.275	+35.10%	+15.46
+60	2023-01-30	1.066	+0.283	+36.12%	+15.91
+90	2023-02-27	1.063	+0.280	+35.77%	+15.76

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.27%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	102.1	+58.716	+135.30%	+13.75
−14	2022-11-21	61.92	+18.524	+42.69%	+4.34
−7	2022-11-28	50.19	+6.790	+15.65%	+1.59
−3	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
−1	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	43.40	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	42.43	-0.970	-2.24%	-0.23
+3	2022-12-08	43.18	-0.220	-0.51%	-0.05
+7	2022-12-12	45.31	+1.916	+4.42%	+0.45
+14	2022-12-19	47.36	+3.968	+9.14%	+0.93
+30	2023-01-04	52.92	+9.520	+21.94%	+2.23
+60	2023-02-03	39.25	-4.142	-9.54%	-0.97
+90	2023-03-03	36.90	-6.496	-14.97%	-1.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.84%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	36.21	+16.548	+84.15%	+0.46
−14	2022-11-21	25.46	+5.798	+29.48%	+0.16
−7	2022-11-28	21.75	+2.086	+10.61%	+0.06
−3	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
−1	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	19.67	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	20.42	+0.752	+3.82%	+0.02
+3	2022-12-08	14.66	-5.008	-25.47%	-0.14
+7	2022-12-12	13.81	-5.854	-29.77%	-0.16
+14	2022-12-19	13.89	-5.776	-29.37%	-0.16
+30	2023-01-04	25.20	+5.530	+28.12%	+0.15
+60	2023-02-03	24.34	+4.678	+23.79%	+0.13
+90	2023-03-03	25.60	+5.936	+30.18%	+0.17

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	51.50	+24.486	+90.64%	+0.51
−14	2022-11-21	42.81	+15.794	+58.46%	+0.33
−7	2022-11-28	30.74	+3.724	+13.78%	+0.08
−3	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
−1	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	27.02	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	27.60	+0.584	+2.16%	+0.01
+3	2022-12-08	35.20	+8.180	+30.28%	+0.17
+7	2022-12-12	36.79	+9.770	+36.16%	+0.21
+14	2022-12-19	36.02	+9.008	+33.34%	+0.19
+30	2023-01-04	53.97	+26.950	+99.76%	+0.57
+60	2023-02-03	29.38	+2.368	+8.77%	+0.05
+90	2023-03-03	39.71	+12.698	+47.00%	+0.27

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/12/2022. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	20.88–27.63 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–29.74 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	92.00 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)+1.10% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.58 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	75.31 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-04)-9.66% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.14 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	17,556,293 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)+3.59% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.96 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.9325 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)-13.58% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -4.12 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.891 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)+7.15% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +3.18 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (28/11/2022 – 04/01/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Italja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022' and country 'italy'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’-9.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.81635
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-3.5182344599543516
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-9.933913657476364
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.5417486368788085
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09004000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-9.933913657476364
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
change_in_volatility_units
-3.5417486368788085
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.81635
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-3.5182344599543516
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-9.933913657476364
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.5417486368788085
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09004000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-9.933913657476364
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.5417486368788085
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cc22e0a296dca66747291f5fba2983515680cb461035b909e0ba61bbd17c182d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’-15.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’5.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.7692100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-5.561377377982013
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-15.134765387967647
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.396013749522821
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.13717999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-15.134765387967647
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
change_in_volatility_units
-5.396013749522821
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.7692100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-5.561377377982013
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-15.134765387967647
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.396013749522821
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.13717999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-15.134765387967647
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-5.396013749522821
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 39224b9deeeeb1e55f5c4b0541b887916e85241e72fcbed3e410a67df03e2228 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’-12.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.79328
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-4.518134907958133
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-12.479175630799107
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.449213553058219
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.11311000000000004
change_pct_from_t0
-12.479175630799107
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
change_in_volatility_units
-4.449213553058219
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.79328
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-4.518134907958133
t0_value
0.90639
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-12.479175630799107
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.449213553058219
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.11311000000000004
change_pct_from_t0
-12.479175630799107
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.804804822690832
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.449213553058219
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9963086754781da76ec220ab05a6b044381c4795906a64e835002b4440841247 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’+0.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.70159
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8159047437208525
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.719173217160709
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3860999528871639
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.012149999999999883
change_pct_from_t0
0.719173217160709
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
change_in_volatility_units
0.3860999528871639
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.70159
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.8159047437208525
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.719173217160709
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3860999528871639
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.012149999999999883
change_pct_from_t0
0.719173217160709
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3860999528871639
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 34428517496778fb919d685019c58d3b6a30d8d4446f7217e8970552e8e98f1c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’+8.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8270899999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
5.274449144176591
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.147670233923657
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.374210577359552
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13764999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
8.147670233923657
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
change_in_volatility_units
4.374210577359552
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8270899999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
5.274449144176591
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
8.147670233923657
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.374210577359552
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13764999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
8.147670233923657
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.374210577359552
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7cb9df00071d3eed8e556ea0bef6a5ce36431042ab0445d4400a4ba164e9ce42 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Italja) inbidel b’+9.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’5.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8564500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.317499850131824
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.88552419736718
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.307206019068799
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.1670100000000001
change_pct_from_t0
9.88552419736718
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
change_in_volatility_units
5.307206019068799
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8564500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
6.317499850131824
t0_value
1.68944
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
9.88552419736718
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
5.307206019068799
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.1670100000000001
change_pct_from_t0
9.88552419736718
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.8626607223930027
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
5.307206019068799
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 90bc2c1bb876965e8d25209625c190e1922e0f94d195871f730612eacf058a79 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’-8.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.98349
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-3.114188584590457
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-8.856782755361142
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.683334757144546
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09556999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
-8.856782755361142
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
change_in_volatility_units
-2.683334757144546
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.98349
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-3.114188584590457
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-8.856782755361142
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.683334757144546
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.09556999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
-8.856782755361142
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.683334757144546
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 70c10dfb511663202bf4155b0612b6476e06e31e1deb241e2b2fbf51442f1f99 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’-13.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.93247
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-4.2514843262303765
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-13.584972105350944
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.115831767812274
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1465899999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-13.584972105350944
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
change_in_volatility_units
-4.115831767812274
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.93247
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-4.2514843262303765
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-13.584972105350944
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.115831767812274
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1465899999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-13.584972105350944
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.115831767812274
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d815055db8120c9312231b33bfe798793a95092a44f26d19b27476d5256cb5c1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’-18.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’5.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.8758
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-5.514725205860606
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-18.836765332789643
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.706964766529252
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.20325999999999989
change_pct_from_t0
-18.836765332789643
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
change_in_volatility_units
-5.706964766529252
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.8758
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-5.514725205860606
t0_value
1.07906
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-18.836765332789643
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.706964766529252
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.20325999999999989
change_pct_from_t0
-18.836765332789643
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.3006626295058434
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-5.706964766529252
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e4ede479bcb977d0cc90c5ae5c647a93f1c2c75b8045319ee3ec85b85d2e8e50 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’+0.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7700799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.8851801322408492
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.3060044880658164
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.1359877304060283
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.005399999999999849
change_pct_from_t0
0.3060044880658164
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
change_in_volatility_units
0.1359877304060283
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7700799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
-0.8851801322408492
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.3060044880658164
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.1359877304060283
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.005399999999999849
change_pct_from_t0
0.3060044880658164
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.1359877304060283
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 12dab22184fae1a85e0ce5a0ff1fd3a613c0bb2fa6a4634843c01eef9af5d236 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’+7.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8908399999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
1.321272436727954
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
7.1491715211823
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.177076308893515
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12615999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
7.1491715211823
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
change_in_volatility_units
3.177076308893515
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8908399999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
1.321272436727954
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
7.1491715211823
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.177076308893515
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12615999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
7.1491715211823
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.177076308893515
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5b29e18c7bd583f5887ed1ef0207432a75913141499c3383f5c3e4ede4593df1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Italja) inbidel b’+3.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8217100000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.058171525061734085
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.231747398961859
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.4361815305659311
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.057030000000000136
change_pct_from_t0
3.231747398961859
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
change_in_volatility_units
1.4361815305659311
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.8217100000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
z_score
0.058171525061734085
t0_value
1.76468
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.231747398961859
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_IT_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.4361815305659311
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.057030000000000136
change_pct_from_t0
3.231747398961859
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.250236011382475
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.4361815305659311
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bd62761252c157733aab5f71b1f2e82426c99a4fe853ecf94fa5985cf4af6dd8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Italja) b’-1.1 c/l (firxa -2.7–+0.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-13.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -12.6 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1260646144861918
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.13717999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.011115385513808173
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02683760376595223
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.004606832738335279
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.1260646144861918
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.13717999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.011115385513808173
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02683760376595223
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.004606832738335279
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6aab51e79cf5a6cb4bd5830b07693f66a839f789ce014dd77ee6535fa773fc64 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Italja) b’+2.2 c/l (firxa -2.7–+7.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-11.6 c/l, u jibqa’ -13.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.13847886010036492
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.11607
expected_eur_per_litre
0.022408860100364924
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02748045418013814
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.07229817438086851
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.13847886010036492
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.11607
expected_eur_per_litre
0.022408860100364924
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02748045418013814
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.07229817438086851
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e13551de0adfe11b92c0f4e22e29ae843d81f362539710b7527f43793d4a0040 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Italja) b’-2.4 c/l (firxa -3.8–-1.0); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-14.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -12.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’12.6 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12273832621718683
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.1465899999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.023851673782813054
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.038160378964629794
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.00954296860099725
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12273832621718683
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.1465899999999999
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.023851673782813054
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.038160378964629794
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.00954296860099725
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 18abfd1ba1469aaf62557a1d1321a85c4b018e44a89a260ec23ff348efbb77dd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Italja) b’+4.3 c/l (firxa -0.5–+9.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-21.4 c/l, u jibqa’ -25.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.257066935449655
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.2136199999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.04344693544965514
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0051029242127044495
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09199679511201511
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Italy
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_IT_DIESEL
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
3
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.257066935449655
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.2136199999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.04344693544965514
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0051029242127044495
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09199679511201511
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 017acb689691ad2447c011433f23a8ea3e34e00d7345dfa3ea19b35fdeef5125 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Italja, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (12%–24%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
24.1861783289451
value_min_pct
12.3078718410223
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
24.1861783289451
value_min_pct
12.3078718410223
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 425efa2e5e98f2cdaab6bc282a0c06344561591a9bcc31d3462965f17a3c9720 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Italja, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet moderata (0%–27%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
27.3907125007957
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Italy
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_max_pct
27.3907125007957
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f82b4ac96678b272ff5eb12993f3c9413e243d05fcf9848eb232cbba00b1225b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (l-Italja, Diċembru 2022) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +5.0%.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Italy
change_pct
4.980231651270185
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_tonnes
5459282
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
5200295.25
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Italy
change_pct
4.980231651270185
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
value_tonnes
5459282
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
5200295.25
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7f71e4cdaf1bd7dd587db2537f0e33ae0b133ca549b6bdfd521327b387f79c5e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Diċembru 2022: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (l-Italja) kienu 7.9% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 91.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: l-ItaljaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
91
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
1.2735399942229817
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
16948372
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
15703848.333333334
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
7.924959794886796
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
7.924959794886796
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
7.9
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Italy
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_IT
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
days_of_cover
91
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
1.2735399942229817
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
16948372
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
15703848.333333334
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
7.924959794886796
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f30b0b945c57850a259bab02a1b05bc3451bb54aa803b1fb07ca3b5819ac9a9f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (l-Italja) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (12–24%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: l-ItaljaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Italy
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
12–24%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Italy
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
IT
country_name
Italy
country_slug
italy
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
12–24%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 13759295d3a34434f5c3741b86a627113754204617689121cedace53b1641977 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-6.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b54773c6d8ea729448e355679535649a28ea7e4cedc8813dfcf6f2802aab32bd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-9.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a66bdad4120941189e2864b65cefe96af6989d6c7dc9d9e481dad3f463e1452c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+2.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 95c15aae3aef102cb53ce9861989a6b3fd3d482e297b83dd1613ec9cd40b15cc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 81f14ddf9bdd5a846c68ffa6a0c2ac90cc0051c094198d9fc185147f886c0b88 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 91941020696deeb37b6bfcb5c4e321ba5865cedc68042d4a64d30524b6fb2549 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e638c4d7da43b662509013a365f2d13fca0fa20208646d67ade6d6d3b40790a0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e1f282615a660e84b280ecac2938abde9502c7d8209f04d500d682817c457aef · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

L-Italja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Italja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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