Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)

Dati: 05/12/2022 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Sixth package of EU sanctions, adopted 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014). European Commission, 3 June 2022: "a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products"; "For seaborne crude oil, spot market transactions and execution of existing contracts will be permitted for six months after entry into force, while for petroleum products, these will be permitted for eight months." Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Temporary derogations apply to pipeline crude for certain member states and to Bulgaria and Croatia, so reported imports from Russia do not fall to zero. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (3)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Ġermanja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 260; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	99.53	+16.170	+19.40%	+4.30
−14	2022-11-21	88.44	+5.080	+6.09%	+1.35
−7	2022-11-28	83.50	+0.140	+0.17%	+0.04
−3	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
−1	2022-12-02	86.54	+3.180	+3.81%	+0.85
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	83.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	79.92	-3.440	-4.13%	-0.91
+3	2022-12-08	76.02	-7.340	-8.81%	-1.95
+7	2022-12-12	78.00	-5.360	-6.43%	-1.42
+14	2022-12-19	81.66	-1.700	-2.04%	-0.45
+30	2023-01-04	75.31	-8.050	-9.66%	-2.14
+60	2023-02-03	78.85	-4.510	-5.41%	-1.20
+90	2023-03-03	85.74	+2.380	+2.86%	+0.63

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 760). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	7,191,809	-230,432	-3.10%	-0.37
−14	2022-11-01	7,191,809	-230,432	-3.10%	-0.37
−7	2022-11-01	7,191,809	-230,432	-3.10%	-0.37
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	7,422,241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	6,670,027	-752,214	-10.13%	-1.20
+60	2023-02-01	6,008,430	-1,413,811	-19.05%	-2.25
+90	2023-03-01	6,679,781	-742,460	-10.00%	-1.18

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.45%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.134	+0.046	+4.27%	+0.16
−14	2022-11-21	1.120	+0.033	+3.01%	+0.12
−7	2022-11-28	1.099	+0.012	+1.08%	+0.04
−3	2022-11-28	1.099	+0.012	+1.08%	+0.04
−1	2022-11-28	1.099	+0.012	+1.08%	+0.04
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.066	-0.022	-1.99%	-0.08
+14	2022-12-19	1.078	-0.009	-0.85%	-0.03
+30	2023-01-02	1.084	-0.004	-0.35%	-0.01
+60	2023-01-30	1.126	+0.039	+3.54%	+0.14
+90	2023-02-27	1.145	+0.057	+5.26%	+0.20

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 26.13%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.9286	+0.070	+8.10%	+2.02
−14	2022-11-21	0.8984	+0.039	+4.59%	+1.15
−7	2022-11-28	0.8748	+0.016	+1.85%	+0.46
−3	2022-11-28	0.8748	+0.016	+1.85%	+0.46
−1	2022-11-28	0.8748	+0.016	+1.85%	+0.46
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.8335	-0.025	-2.96%	-0.74
+14	2022-12-19	0.8419	-0.017	-1.99%	-0.50
+30	2023-01-02	0.8426	-0.016	-1.90%	-0.47
+60	2023-01-30	0.8631	+0.004	+0.48%	+0.12
+90	2023-02-27	0.8655	+0.007	+0.76%	+0.19

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.00%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	0.9872	-0.072	-6.75%	-13.43
−14	2022-11-21	1.025	-0.034	-3.22%	-6.40
−7	2022-11-28	1.046	-0.012	-1.17%	-2.33
−3	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
−1	2022-12-02	1.054	-0.005	-0.46%	-0.92
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.059	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	1.052	-0.007	-0.67%	-1.33
+3	2022-12-08	1.052	-0.007	-0.64%	-1.28
+7	2022-12-12	1.056	-0.002	-0.24%	-0.47
+14	2022-12-19	1.060	+0.001	+0.10%	+0.21
+30	2023-01-04	1.060	+0.001	+0.11%	+0.23
+60	2023-02-03	1.094	+0.035	+3.31%	+6.57
+90	2023-03-03	1.062	+0.003	+0.26%	+0.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.50%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 770). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	5.005–9.421	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	5.005–9.421	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	5.005–9.421	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	3.130–11.39	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	1.111–9.289	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	2.390–9.708	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	7.253–11.90	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	0–0.0308	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-01	0–0.0308	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-01	0–0.0308	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-01	0–0.9237	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-01	1.264–2.783	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-02-01	0–3.546	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-03-01	2.247–3.110	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2022-11-01	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-11-01	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	105.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	105.6	+0.590	+0.56%	+0.22
+60	2023-02-01	105.5	+0.455	+0.43%	+0.17
+90	2023-03-01	103.7	-1.270	-1.21%	-0.47

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.57%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.13%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.6104	+0.142	+30.24%	+3.72
−14	2022-11-21	0.5263	+0.058	+12.30%	+1.51
−7	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.5123	+0.044	+9.31%	+1.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4687	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.4798	+0.011	+2.38%	+0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.4779	+0.009	+1.98%	+0.24
+30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.009	-1.89%	-0.23
+60	2023-01-30	0.4720	+0.003	+0.71%	+0.09
+90	2023-02-27	0.4954	+0.027	+5.69%	+0.70

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-01	32,432,826	-428,653	-1.30%	-0.91
−14	2022-11-01	32,432,826	-428,653	-1.30%	-0.91
−7	2022-11-01	32,432,826	-428,653	-1.30%	-0.91
−3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-12-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	32,861,479	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-01-01	34,031,259	+1,169,780	+3.56%	+2.49
+60	2023-02-01	33,356,929	+495,450	+1.51%	+1.06
+90	2023-03-01	31,962,399	-899,080	-2.74%	-1.92

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.1864	+0.186	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	0.0152	+0.015	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	0.0050	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	0.0050	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	0.0050	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0448	-0.045	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.0185	-0.019	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	-0.0742	-0.074	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.1158	-0.116	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.2293	-0.229	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.0514	+0.051	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-11-21	0.0060	+0.006	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-11-28	-0.0016	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-11-28	-0.0016	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-11-28	-0.0016	-0.002	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-12-12	-0.0460	-0.046	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-12-19	-0.0409	-0.041	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-01-02	-0.1109	-0.111	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-01-30	-0.0355	-0.036	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-02-27	-0.0607	-0.061	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	2.131	+0.277	+14.94%	+5.54
−14	2022-11-21	1.911	+0.057	+3.07%	+1.14
−7	2022-11-28	1.874	+0.020	+1.08%	+0.40
−3	2022-11-28	1.874	+0.020	+1.08%	+0.40
−1	2022-11-28	1.874	+0.020	+1.08%	+0.40
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.854	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.854	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.854	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.775	-0.079	-4.26%	-1.58
+14	2022-12-19	1.821	-0.033	-1.78%	-0.66
+30	2023-01-02	1.850	-0.004	-0.22%	-0.08
+60	2023-01-30	1.851	-0.003	-0.16%	-0.06
+90	2023-02-27	1.738	-0.116	-6.26%	-2.32

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.70%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.945	+0.144	+8.00%	+3.35
−14	2022-11-21	1.855	+0.054	+3.00%	+1.26
−7	2022-11-28	1.818	+0.017	+0.94%	+0.40
−3	2022-11-28	1.818	+0.017	+0.94%	+0.40
−1	2022-11-28	1.818	+0.017	+0.94%	+0.40
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.801	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.801	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.801	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.716	-0.085	-4.72%	-1.98
+14	2022-12-19	1.732	-0.069	-3.83%	-1.61
+30	2023-01-02	1.731	-0.070	-3.89%	-1.63
+60	2023-01-30	1.845	+0.044	+2.44%	+1.02
+90	2023-02-27	1.818	+0.017	+0.94%	+0.40

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.39%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	1.320	+0.233	+21.40%	+5.27
−14	2022-11-21	1.135	+0.048	+4.40%	+1.09
−7	2022-11-28	1.104	+0.017	+1.55%	+0.38
−3	2022-11-28	1.104	+0.017	+1.55%	+0.38
−1	2022-11-28	1.104	+0.017	+1.55%	+0.38
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.088	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	1.021	-0.066	-6.10%	-1.50
+14	2022-12-19	1.060	-0.028	-2.55%	-0.63
+30	2023-01-02	1.010	-0.078	-7.18%	-1.77
+60	2023-01-30	1.010	-0.077	-7.10%	-1.75
+90	2023-02-27	0.9154	-0.172	-15.83%	-3.90

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.06%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.9800	+0.121	+14.09%	+3.58
−14	2022-11-21	0.9043	+0.045	+5.28%	+1.34
−7	2022-11-28	0.8732	+0.014	+1.66%	+0.42
−3	2022-11-28	0.8732	+0.014	+1.66%	+0.42
−1	2022-11-28	0.8732	+0.014	+1.66%	+0.42
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8590	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.7875	-0.071	-8.32%	-2.12
+14	2022-12-19	0.8010	-0.058	-6.75%	-1.72
+30	2023-01-02	0.7317	-0.127	-14.81%	-3.77
+60	2023-01-30	0.8275	-0.031	-3.66%	-0.93
+90	2023-02-27	0.8048	-0.054	-6.30%	-1.60

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.8106	+0.044	+5.77%	+2.12
−14	2022-11-21	0.7755	+0.009	+1.19%	+0.44
−7	2022-11-28	0.7696	+0.003	+0.42%	+0.15
−3	2022-11-28	0.7696	+0.003	+0.42%	+0.15
−1	2022-11-28	0.7696	+0.003	+0.42%	+0.15
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7664	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7664	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7664	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.7538	-0.013	-1.65%	-0.60
+14	2022-12-19	0.7612	-0.005	-0.69%	-0.25
+30	2023-01-02	0.8405	+0.074	+9.66%	+3.55
+60	2023-01-30	0.8406	+0.074	+9.68%	+3.55
+90	2023-02-27	0.8226	+0.056	+7.33%	+2.69

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.72%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-10-31	0.9651	+0.023	+2.44%	+0.48
−14	2022-11-21	0.9507	+0.009	+0.92%	+0.18
−7	2022-11-28	0.9448	+0.003	+0.29%	+0.06
−3	2022-11-28	0.9448	+0.003	+0.29%	+0.06
−1	2022-11-28	0.9448	+0.003	+0.29%	+0.06
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9421	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9421	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9421	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-12-12	0.9285	-0.014	-1.44%	-0.29
+14	2022-12-19	0.9310	-0.011	-1.17%	-0.23
+30	2023-01-02	0.9993	+0.057	+6.08%	+1.20
+60	2023-01-30	1.017	+0.075	+8.01%	+1.59
+90	2023-02-27	1.013	+0.071	+7.55%	+1.50

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	102.1	+58.716	+135.30%	+13.75
−14	2022-11-21	61.92	+18.524	+42.69%	+4.34
−7	2022-11-28	50.19	+6.790	+15.65%	+1.59
−3	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
−1	2022-12-02	47.86	+4.464	+10.29%	+1.05
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	43.40	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	42.43	-0.970	-2.24%	-0.23
+3	2022-12-08	43.18	-0.220	-0.51%	-0.05
+7	2022-12-12	45.31	+1.916	+4.42%	+0.45
+14	2022-12-19	47.36	+3.968	+9.14%	+0.93
+30	2023-01-04	52.92	+9.520	+21.94%	+2.23
+60	2023-02-03	39.25	-4.142	-9.54%	-0.97
+90	2023-03-03	36.90	-6.496	-14.97%	-1.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.84%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	36.21	+16.548	+84.15%	+0.46
−14	2022-11-21	25.46	+5.798	+29.48%	+0.16
−7	2022-11-28	21.75	+2.086	+10.61%	+0.06
−3	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
−1	2022-12-02	19.76	+0.096	+0.49%	+0.00
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	19.67	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	20.42	+0.752	+3.82%	+0.02
+3	2022-12-08	14.66	-5.008	-25.47%	-0.14
+7	2022-12-12	13.81	-5.854	-29.77%	-0.16
+14	2022-12-19	13.89	-5.776	-29.37%	-0.16
+30	2023-01-04	25.20	+5.530	+28.12%	+0.15
+60	2023-02-03	24.34	+4.678	+23.79%	+0.13
+90	2023-03-03	25.60	+5.936	+30.18%	+0.17

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-11-04	51.50	+24.486	+90.64%	+0.51
−14	2022-11-21	42.81	+15.794	+58.46%	+0.33
−7	2022-11-28	30.74	+3.724	+13.78%	+0.08
−3	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
−1	2022-12-02	31.06	+4.044	+14.97%	+0.08
T0	2022-12-05l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	27.02	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-12-06	27.60	+0.584	+2.16%	+0.01
+3	2022-12-08	35.20	+8.180	+30.28%	+0.17
+7	2022-12-12	36.79	+9.770	+36.16%	+0.21
+14	2022-12-19	36.02	+9.008	+33.34%	+0.19
+30	2023-01-04	53.97	+26.950	+99.76%	+0.57
+60	2023-02-03	29.38	+2.368	+8.77%	+0.05
+90	2023-03-03	39.71	+12.698	+47.00%	+0.27

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 737). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/12/2022. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	1.111–9.289 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	1.264–2.783 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-01) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	105.6 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)+0.56% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.22 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	75.31 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-04)-9.66% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.14 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	34,031,259 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-01)+3.56% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +2.49 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.010 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)-7.18% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.77 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.850 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-01-02)-0.22% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.08 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (28/11/2022 – 04/01/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Ġermanja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2022-12-05. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: il-kampjun kollu (2005-01-03 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’-1.6 c/l (firxa -2.5–-0.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-12.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -11.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+1.5 c/l (firxa -1.8–+4.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-3.6 c/l, u jibqa’ -5.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-8.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.78752
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-8.324610054993608
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-8.315967169218244
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1151844643324424
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0714300000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-8.315967169218244
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1151844643324424
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.78752
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-8.324610054993608
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-8.315967169218244
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1151844643324424
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0714300000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-8.315967169218244
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1151844643324424
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 59489253a130928debaf9e2ad70fc70e5ae9b53ddb4b85d12bd86c5b7e61bcd3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-14.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.73172
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-10.440506112882522
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-14.81227079573899
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.7675335208878113
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12723000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
-14.81227079573899
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
change_in_volatility_units
-3.7675335208878113
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.73172
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-10.440506112882522
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-14.81227079573899
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.7675335208878113
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12723000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
-14.81227079573899
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.7675335208878113
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e64cfaf169ef2a805050d5d0af6d892ca3ed01b5737583622ed78f7d974cf013 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-6.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.80483
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.668227245637743
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.300715990453467
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.602600912917146
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05412000000000006
change_pct_from_t0
-6.300715990453467
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
change_in_volatility_units
-1.602600912917146
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.80483
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.668227245637743
t0_value
0.8589500000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.300715990453467
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.602600912917146
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05412000000000006
change_pct_from_t0
-6.300715990453467
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.931556471526366
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.602600912917146
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 60233039cdcf633ff4e26a459f565c8e5a3aaf11377ab58455d68728f6fea6d9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-4.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.716
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-8.325022753374387
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-4.7196002220988325
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.9782030445080137
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.08499999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-4.7196002220988325
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
change_in_volatility_units
-1.9782030445080137
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.716
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-8.325022753374387
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-4.7196002220988325
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.9782030445080137
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.08499999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-4.7196002220988325
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.9782030445080137
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 43fc140060261f63a28bdfee5ba0dea5f39c54f1cd912e230d963159946878b2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-3.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.731
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.8470310163385335
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.886729594669619
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.6291083895948317
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.06999999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
-3.886729594669619
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
change_in_volatility_units
-1.6291083895948317
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.731
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.8470310163385335
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.886729594669619
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.6291083895948317
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.06999999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
-3.886729594669619
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.6291083895948317
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 42b585d6f3f08678ac30a0128b9894f2a7a64934d61f574541db1f5cc34c9833 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’+0.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.818
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.074678941530604
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.9439200444197738
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3956406089016058
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017000000000000126
change_pct_from_t0
0.9439200444197738
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
change_in_volatility_units
0.3956406089016058
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.818
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.074678941530604
t0_value
1.801
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.9439200444197738
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3956406089016058
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017000000000000126
change_pct_from_t0
0.9439200444197738
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.3858017179791644
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3956406089016058
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6d23b96571f0d9e1d3d1cf53fe350e339716599e1a05619c386acdd124e25950 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-6.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.0212
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.135304489863069
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-6.1034590558855335
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.5041911286390772
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.06637999999999988
change_pct_from_t0
-6.1034590558855335
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
change_in_volatility_units
-1.5041911286390772
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.0212
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.135304489863069
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-6.1034590558855335
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.5041911286390772
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.06637999999999988
change_pct_from_t0
-6.1034590558855335
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.5041911286390772
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7bf1129021ff7b09510fa1f6ef5874b412f142a4f34ed70fde039443565799d3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-7.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.00952
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.358010723750014
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.177403041615332
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.7688635055975686
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07806000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
-7.177403041615332
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
change_in_volatility_units
-1.7688635055975686
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.00952
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.358010723750014
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.177403041615332
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.7688635055975686
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07806000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
-7.177403041615332
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.7688635055975686
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e396a3299916b88ab91a442d5ad21fecfd5762971f944466c2e09dacd77fee09 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-15.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.9154
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.152626368736229
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-15.831479063609114
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.9016515295130576
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.17218
change_pct_from_t0
-15.831479063609114
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
change_in_volatility_units
-3.9016515295130576
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
0.9154
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-7.152626368736229
t0_value
1.08758
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-15.831479063609114
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.9016515295130576
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.17218
change_pct_from_t0
-15.831479063609114
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.0576353228513335
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.9016515295130576
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ee4aa9eda3c6677260339213728a13465224c38c67610363b2b896bf42ea2256 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-4.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7750000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.1353061354099445
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.26105717367853
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.5794761115113654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07899999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-4.26105717367853
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
change_in_volatility_units
-1.5794761115113654
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.7750000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.1353061354099445
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.26105717367853
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.5794761115113654
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.07899999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-4.26105717367853
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.5794761115113654
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bf912de00443944e92178f1778e49c2e119ece09652be817f5b109b227bbb5a3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.85
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-3.9335964313358542
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.21574973031283728
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.07997347400057558
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0040000000000000036
change_pct_from_t0
-0.21574973031283728
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
change_in_volatility_units
-0.07997347400057558
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.85
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-3.9335964313358542
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-0.21574973031283728
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-01-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.07997347400057558
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0040000000000000036
change_pct_from_t0
-0.21574973031283728
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.07997347400057558
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bf8cf3b9278dbf02db9f09ba5e1dbf903c4460f8c15cf08144439e7545f24a4a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) inbidel b’-6.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.738
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.728149589419831
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-6.2567421790722815
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.3192307460166917
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1160000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-6.2567421790722815
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
change_in_volatility_units
-2.3192307460166917
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
1.738
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
z_score
-5.728149589419831
t0_value
1.854
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-6.2567421790722815
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-27
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.3192307460166917
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1160000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-6.2567421790722815
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.6977661406991587
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.3192307460166917
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a90818e3c56e8bb66054f46ae62afc5fc81f97253b39824f46daafbe02d429a2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’-1.6 c/l (firxa -2.5–-0.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-12.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -11.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.11092829596696988
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12723000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.016301704033030193
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.025165449850618284
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.007437958215442214
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.11092829596696988
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12723000000000007
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.016301704033030193
proxy_volatility_units
0.2070376188168671
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
7.428000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.025165449850618284
expected_high_eur_per_litre
-0.007437958215442214
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a8f3a4ea104779ac8f0e556b2cf2e58bca28cca2f48e9b0eeb654087da3972f3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Ġermanja) b’+1.5 c/l (firxa -1.8–+4.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-3.6 c/l, u jibqa’ -5.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05070681785114913
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.03563000000000005
expected_eur_per_litre
0.015076817851149081
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.018237167660968175
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.04839080336326557
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05070681785114913
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.03563000000000005
expected_eur_per_litre
0.015076817851149081
proxy_volatility_units
0.15391245706875872
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.5219999999999985
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.018237167660968175
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.04839080336326557
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.43434263983826
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5edb41bd41fc6a86aaddbc1509ad9e481d5f71eb1f0e06034be3fb278f417985 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) b’-0.4 c/l (firxa -1.7–+0.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-7.8 c/l, u jibqa’ -7.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’12.6 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07424295250702334
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.07806000000000002
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.0038170474929766704
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01709947375277418
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.009465378766820205
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-12-30
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-01-02
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.07424295250702334
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.07806000000000002
expected_eur_per_litre
-0.0038170474929766704
proxy_volatility_units
2.948513147105371
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
12.594000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.01709947375277418
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.009465378766820205
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8d4106508a2283568ab148c998d4f520d166b0d936625544a122dca1ef9facc5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Ġermanja) b’+7.0 c/l (firxa +1.9–+12.1); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-15.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -22.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.22035745795917094
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.15032999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.07002745795917098
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.018564271868928183
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12149064404940955
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Germany
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-03-06
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-12-05
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-03-06
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.22035745795917094
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-12-05
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.15032999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.07002745795917098
proxy_volatility_units
-1.6767707765260176
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-7.161999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2005-01-03
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.018564271868928183
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12149064404940955
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.842624566455152
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0e18748a00faacabf7e7a8c965f0f088008d254a97f355626a2ec7686bde56b3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Ġermanja, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (3%–11%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Germany
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_max_pct
11.3852578100819
value_min_pct
3.12951459198304
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Germany
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_max_pct
11.3852578100819
value_min_pct
3.12951459198304
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9d07dea88f3fa5e7d9b0024cf8c8fe9f36dfc345fe43afe0d4ae3b5bbc676635 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Ġermanja, Diċembru 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%–1%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Germany
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_max_pct
0.923697559886902
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-12
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Germany
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_max_pct
0.923697559886902
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-12-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a24afafe5deacd95978236e64c4f2ea745cd5261cf8d1d37c1fc8cf51ed1ed8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Ġermanja, Diċembru 2022) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +0.9%.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Germany
change_pct
0.9291928959142682
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_tonnes
7422241
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
7353909
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
country
Germany
change_pct
0.9291928959142682
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
value_tonnes
7422241
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
7353909
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 52f92ffe43ae24e601a1a5988092b2ec2e980bc3169f09d68121c8c76c1a6ad6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Diċembru 2022: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Ġermanja) kienu 1.6% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 105.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_DE
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
days_of_cover
105
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
1.321664044940148
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
32861479
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
32343198.333333332
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.6024409872060168
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
1.6024409872060168
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
1.6
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-12
status
OBSERVED
country
Germany
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_DE
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
days_of_cover
105
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
1.321664044940148
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-12-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
32861479
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
32343198.333333332
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.6024409872060168
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9fa86a16a4f5930d095fc800e7de8f39ab0f9ac5c5ef9d410bc19e0486aa2465 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Ġermanja) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (3–11%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-ĠermanjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Germany
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
3–11%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
country
Germany
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DE
country_name
Germany
country_slug
germany
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
3–11%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ead3885887d0aac82e42d7d11e31a5884b1ce4301a34a9db6ab52219063a5e92 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-6.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
78
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-3.919330167431879
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-6.429942418426104
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-12-12
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-5.359999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-6.429942418426104
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.424724765497578
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b54773c6d8ea729448e355679535649a28ea7e4cedc8813dfcf6f2802aab32bd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-9.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
75.31
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-4.677910199838048
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-9.65690978886756
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-01-04
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-8.049999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
-9.65690978886756
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.1397452168387128
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a66bdad4120941189e2864b65cefe96af6989d6c7dc9d9e481dad3f463e1452c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+2.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
value
85.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.7366500741888493
t0_value
83.36
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
2.855086372360839
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
2.3799999999999955
change_pct_from_t0
2.855086372360839
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.513111987760301
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.6326203249784009
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 95c15aae3aef102cb53ce9861989a6b3fd3d482e297b83dd1613ec9cd40b15cc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 81f14ddf9bdd5a846c68ffa6a0c2ac90cc0051c094198d9fc185147f886c0b88 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 91941020696deeb37b6bfcb5c4e321ba5865cedc68042d4a64d30524b6fb2549 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e638c4d7da43b662509013a365f2d13fca0fa20208646d67ade6d6d3b40790a0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
event_slug
eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e1f282615a660e84b280ecac2938abde9502c7d8209f04d500d682817c457aef · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Ġermanja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ żejt mhux maħdum Russu li jinġarr bil-baħar (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Diċembru 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Ġermanja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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