Poland
Road diesel, June 2026 — crude behind it: 31% Norway · 26% Saudi Arabia · 9% United States · 15% cannot be traced. Up to 37% of that crude may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Estimated
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
Crude behind it (estimated)
Last shipped from
Poland's road diesel
Poland (own refineries)55%Germany17%United States5%Lithuania4%Sweden4%Belgium3%Canada2%Hungary2%Netherlands2%Denmark1%Other suppliers2%Imports, origin not reported3%
Norwayest. 31%Saudi Arabiaest. 26%United Statesest. 9%Kazakhstanest. 4%Guyanaest. 3%United Kingdomest. 3%Libyaest. 2%Other crude originsest. 7%United States: no crude data5%Origin not reported: crude unknown3%Poland: crude not from imports3%Canada: no crude data2%Smaller flows: crude not from imports<1%Smaller flows: no refinery<1%Smaller flows: crude origin not reported<1%Smaller flows: no crude data<1%1.42 Mt100%Crude behind it (estimated)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- United States
- Lithuania
- Sweden
- Belgium
- Canada
- Hungary
- Other (7)
- Norway445 kt (est. 31%)
- Saudi Arabia364 kt (est. 26%)
- United States130 kt (est. 9%)
- Kazakhstan52 kt (est. 4%)
- Guyana48 kt (est. 3%)
- United Kingdom39 kt (est. 3%)
- Libya35 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins93 kt (est. 7%)
- United States: no crude data70 kt (5%)
- Origin not reported: crude unknown48 kt (3%)
- Poland: crude not from imports38 kt (3%)
- Canada: no crude data28 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports13 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery13 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.7 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data2.3 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Assumptions
- 1
Poland: road diesel available in June 2026
Everything refined in the country plus everything imported.
- 2
Where that fuel came from
Poland's refineries ran on (going by its crude imports, April–June 2026)
Germany's refineries ran on (going by its crude imports, April–June 2026)
United States: crude origin not published.
- 3
The crude behind Poland's road diesel
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- Each country's refineries are assumed to run on its crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- The crude origin is the producing country the statistics report, not the loading terminal, so the Hormuz answer is a range wherever a producer loads both inside and outside the Persian Gulf.
In June 2026, most road diesel available in Poland was refined in Poland (55%), followed by Germany (17%).
Poland's refineries ran on crude from Saudi Arabia (43%) and Norway (43%), going by its crude imports in April–June 2026.
Taken together, an estimated 31% of the crude behind Poland's road diesel came from Norway, 26% from Saudi Arabia and 9% from the United States; 15% cannot be traced.
Up to 36% of the crude behind Poland's road diesel is estimated to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant dependence judged on the upper bound. No midpoint is published: crude that cannot be traced is counted as anything from none to all of it.
This is an estimate, not a reported figure: it assumes exports are drawn proportionally from every source and that each country's refineries run on its crude-import mix, and it looks back only one country.
Hormuz and the pump price in Poland
Calculated- At most 37% of the crude behind Poland's road diesel in June 2026 could have passed through Hormuz.
- Since 28 Feb 2026, diesel at the pump went +44.7%; Brent (in US dollars) went +66.9% (week of 23 Feb 2026 to week of 28 Sep 2026).
- 37% of the diesel pump price is tax (week of 28 Sep 2026).
Is Hormuz really the reason? — the EU-wide picture →
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Strait of Hormuz: the upper end of the headline’s estimate for June 2026, the same figure as in the sentence above; no new figure is made here.
- Pump price: Weekly Oil Bulletin, diesel including tax, week of 23 Feb 2026 (€1.424 per litre) and week of 28 Sep 2026 (€2.060 per litre). Brent: EIA daily spot price, the first print dated in each of those weeks (23 Feb 2026: 71.9; 28 Sep 2026: 119.97; US dollars per barrel). Each change is worked out in the currency it is published in; no exchange rate is applied. The start week is the one containing the event date of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) (28 Feb 2026), the event the Strait of Hormuz page leads with; the end week is the latest week with both prices.
- Tax share: the pump price split into tax and price before tax for the week of 28 Sep 2026 (Weekly Oil Bulletin prices and published tax rates), as on the pump price page.
- The three figures are shown side by side, each on its own; no link between them is drawn here.
Go deeper for Poland
- What does diesel cost at the pump in Poland, and how much of it is tax?Pump price & tax →latest weekly price €2.06 per litre (diesel, week of 28 Sep 2026)
- Where has Poland bought its oil since 2015?Imports since 2015 →
- How does fuel reach Poland, flow by flow?Flow diagram, full page →
- How does Poland compare with Slovakia, Czechia and Lithuania?Compare with neighbours →
- Which refineries, ports and pipelines serve Poland?Refineries & pipelines →
- Where does Poland's crude come from, on a map?On the map →
- What does Norway supply to the EU?Supplier page: Norway →
- What does Saudi Arabia supply to the EU?Supplier page: Saudi Arabia →
- What does the United States supply to the EU?Supplier page: United States →
Crude origins
Calculated2 refineries — ORLEN Płock Refinery, 16.3 Mt/a; ORLEN Gdańsk Refinery (Rafineria Gdanska, formerly Grupa LOTOS), 10.5 Mt/a.
In June 2026, four countries supplied all crude imports.
Share of crude imports by origin, to June 2026
- Saudi Arabia
- Norway
- United States
- Guyana
- Nigeria
- United Kingdom
- Other origins
- Origin not published
Share of crude imports, June 2026 (published)
Since January 2023: Norway +18.7 pt, Nigeria −9.5 pt.
Share of crude imports, June 2026: all origins
| Country of origin | Share | Tonnes |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 46% | 1,013,414 |
| Norway | 43% | 941,326 |
| Guyana | 6% | 136,253 |
| Algeria | 6% | 125,429 |
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Refinery operators and national regulators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin curated refinery reference list
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Download
- Download CSV
Product origins
CalculatedRoad diesel imports, June 2026: Germany 39%, United States 11%, Lithuania 9%, Sweden 9%, Belgium 6%, Canada 5%, other origins 15%, origin not published 8%.
Share of road diesel imports by country last shipped from, to June 2026
- Germany
- United States of America
- Netherlands
- Finland
- Sweden
- Lithuania
- Other origins
- Origin not published
Share of road diesel imports, June 2026 (published)
Share of road diesel imports, June 2026 (published): all countries last shipped from
| Country last shipped from | Share | Tonnes |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 39% | 243,556 |
| United States | 11% | 69,812 |
| Lithuania | 9% | 54,862 |
| Sweden | 9% | 54,737 |
| Belgium | 6% | 38,012 |
| Canada | 5% | 28,348 |
| Other origins | 15% | |
| Origin not published | 8% |
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Download
- Download CSV
Stocks & days of cover
Official92 days of emergency stock cover in June 2026.
Closing stocks: 11,199,338 tonnes, −1.1% against the 12-month average.
Closing stocks, to June 2026
- Closing stocks
- 12-month average
Days of cover, to June 2026
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Stock levels for oil products - monthly data
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Which method the member state used
- Stock calculation method: method 2
- Minimum obligation method: method 1
- Days calculation method: method 2
- Download
- Download CSV
Recent events
Official- 28 Feb 2026Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)Shipping disruption · Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf
- 5 Feb 2023EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)Import ban · European Union
- 5 Dec 2022EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)Import ban · European Union
- 24 Feb 2022Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)War · Ukraine
Source & method
- Source
- International Energy Agency — Event timeline, cited per event
- US Energy Information Administration — Event timeline, cited per event
- European Commission — Event timeline, cited per event
- European Council — Event timeline, cited per event
- National legislators — Event timeline, cited per event
- Method
- How this figure is made